Series Preview: Sky Open Season in Dallas with Doubleheader Against Wings
The Sky's new era begins against a strong Dallas team they swept in three games a season ago.
Despite 241 days passing between the Sky’s playoff elimination in Las Vegas last September and the season opener in Dallas on Wednesday night (7 PM CT), the offseason feels like it passed relatively quickly—especially given the chaotic 30-day sprint from the WNBA Draft in Brooklyn to opening night. The words ‘new era’ are so commonplace in Sky dialogue at this point that they feel cliche, but the opening game in Dallas could one day represent a historic milestone for the franchise as prized head coach Teresa Weatherspoon will take the bench for the first time while Angel Reese will make her long-awaited WNBA debut (though we’ll have to wait on the injured Kamilla Cardoso).
If the Sky can start with a win in either the opener or the second game of the weekend set with the Wings on Saturday (7 PM CT, NBATV), it will send an important message to the rest of the W that Weatherspoon and company may already be ahead of schedule. Win or lose, it will be key for the Sky’s veteran core—led by Elizabeth Williams—to limit the emotional reaction (in either direction) to the opening weekend as, after a few days off following Saturday’s game, the Sky will start a brutal stretch of 8 games in 17 days next Thursday evening at Barclays Center. But, before we start looking ahead to that stretch too much, let’s dive into the two-game season-opening series with the Wings.
Matchup to Watch: Who guards Arike Ogunbowale?
Chicago was the only team Dallas went winless against a season ago, and a big part of the Sky’s success was how well they limited Arike Ogunbowale in their three meetings. The Sky held her to just 32% shooting from the floor and 29.9% from long distance and used a variety of defenders and defensive coverages in the process. However, the nature of the Sky’s defense this time around figures to change drastically as Kahleah Copper, who guarded Ogunbowale most in the team’s May meeting, and Courtney Williams, who did the heavy lifting when the teams met twice in August, have both since departed. Marina Mabrey figures to spend the majority of the time guarding her former Wings teammate (and close friend), but the share of the defensive responsibility she takes on could tell us a lot about how Weatherspoon plans to approach defending other elite W guards.
On one hand, Mabrey’s frame gives her an edge defending Ogunbowale—a player who is not typically reliant on her strength but possesses plenty of it—compared to Evans. To the contrary, Evans is a more reliable defender and should have an offensive workload that is at least slightly less intensive than Mabrey’s. Giving her the Ogunbowale assignment allows Mabrey to guard one of Jacy Sheldon or Sevgi Uzun who are dangerous but less multi-dimensional options. The overall outcome should be Mabrey expending less energy at the defensive end which could have an important impact on her offensive output—especially her jump shot—late in games. Of course, with Satou Sabally out, the possibility for the Sky’s threes (Michaela Onyenwere and Diamond DeShields) to spend some time on Ogunbowale also exists. Last year’s first meeting with the Sky came before Sabally had fully broken out, and James Wade primarily used Copper on Ogunbowale—with the additional size proving very disruptive (Ogunbowale was 0/5 with Copper as her primary defender). It’s unclear at this stage exactly what the Wings’ plans are at the three for as long as Sabally is out, but Mabrey is a big guard who’s capable of taking on the majority of the options Latricia Trammell has.
My expectation is that Weatherspoon will want to see, at least in game one, how Mabrey—who had a very impressive defensive campaign overseas—fairs against one of the league’s best and, accordingly, will give her the matchup. However, if it’s Evans who is tasked with guarding Ogunbowale from the jump, that should give a pretty good indication that Weatherspoon sees her as the team’s defensive ace at the point of attack and will task her with guarding the other team’s best perimeter player on a regular basis. Of course, the doubleheader means that both of these players (plus Onyenwere and DeShields) should see some time against the Wings’ superstar as both teams will make adjustments ahead of game two.
Numbers Game: A Titanic Battle on the Glass
If the matchup with Ogunbowale is the main event, the battle in the post has to go down as the highlight of the undercard. Dallas have been a dominant post team for a number of seasons and led the W in paint points by a huge margin a season ago—averaging 42.3 per game. And while the ability to score (or, in the Sky’s case stop scores) inside will be critical to this match-up, the rebounding battle figures to be even more key. I’ve talked ad nauseam about Chicago’s issues on the defensive glass a season ago, but nobody was better than Dallas when it came to capitalizing on those scenarios—with their 36.9% offensive rebounding percentage leading the league by more than 5%. The key, of course, is the seismic front court of Teaira McCowan, Natasha Howard and Kalani Brown—all of whom ranked amongst the top-15 in offensive rebounds per game league-wide (Sabally, for what it’s worth, was also in that group).
In an effort to address their season-long struggles on the glass a year ago, the Sky drafted two players who excelled on the glass in college, but this two-game set will serve as a pretty brutal initiation to the WNBA for Reese. The LSU alum, who finished second in the NCAA with 441 rebounds last season, figures to be one of the W’s best on the glass before the end of her rookie season but will find herself overmatched—at least from a height perspective—against McCowan and Brown. That’s where Cardoso (6’7”) will eventually be a difference maker for the Sky—who’s tallest big a season ago was Alanna Smith (6’4”). You can’t teach height, and the ability to, at least physically, get on the same level as opponents should be a huge asset as the Sky try to improve their rebounding numbers this season. In the meantime, Isabelle Harrison—who makes her return to both the W and Dallas this weekend—should be key to the Sky’s strides after her expected impact on the glass was desperately missed a season ago.
One final key to succeeding in this area? Team rebounding. In the two games that Brown and McCowan played against the Sky last year, Dallas only managed a 62-60 edge on the glass—largely thanks to Mabrey and Courtney Williams’ 24 total boards across the two games. If Chicago can tie up Dallas’ bigs down low, it’s on those at the perimeter to make sure good box outs aren’t wasted. Even if the Sky’s front court can only keep things close in the rebounding department against the Wings, that bodes well for their performance the rest of the season—given Dallas is the W’s gold standard in this department.
Sky-Zone: How do Teresa Weatherspoon’s rotations look?
This is where the opening weekend can already give us a feel for what Teresa Weatherspoon will be like as a coach. Her offensive and defensive philosophy may not shine through so soon after this team was assembled, but she’ll have the power to decide who’s on the court and when. To that point, here’s a couple of key aspects to watch closely this weekend:
Does a full bench unit ever play together? And, if so, for how long? Five-in, five-out is a disastrous strategy and not one I expect Weatherspoon to employ, but this weekend should show how gradually she brings starters out of the game.
If 1 or 2 starters are left behind to work with a mostly bench group, who are the starters that are trusted to do so? Because of her varied skillset and positional versatility, I expect Mabrey to be a key spark plug when staggered with the Sky’s second unit in stretches.
How long does it take to build a consistent rotation? The key question for this season. No one benefits from a wishy-washy rotation; so, finding a blueprint as early in the season as possible is beneficial for any coach.
How does the front court rotation look without Cardoso? Like I mentioned in my camp preview, sooner or later the Sky need to see Reese and Cardoso get some pretty heavy minutes together to plan for 2025 and beyond. However, the injury the Brazilian suffered in the preseason opener means the Sky need to plan for a different reality in the short term—likely opening the door for Brianna Turner to get minutes as Elizabeth Williams’ back-up at the five.