Week(end) Preview: Sky Face Sun, Mystics & Fever in 5-Day Stretch
Chicago looks to bounce back from a tough loss to the Dream in a series of rematches with conference foes.
The Commissioner’s Cup has been a busy time for all involved, and the Sky’s schedule this week is no different. Their first game, at home against the Sun, comes later in the week than their previous Tuesday games with a Friday PM to Sunday AM turnaround (plus a flight in between) practically serving as a back-to-back. Luckily for the Sky, the scouting process for these games should be easier as Teresa Weatherspoon and company have faced each of these teams before and only need to flip on the tape of the previous meeting to hone in on what can change. With that in mind, let’s do the same and look back at some things the Sky did well in their previous meeting with each team plus an area they’ll hope to improve upon the second time around.
Sky vs. Sun
Wednesday, June 12th at 7:00 PM CT (Commissioner’s Cup Game)
What Chicago Did Well Last Time: Keeping Mabrey Involved
In the previous meeting with Connecticut, Marina Mabrey had a season high in scoring (23) and field goal attempts (18) while registering her second-highest minutes total of the season (36:44). It may feel like a tired refrain so early in the season, but the Sky are always more likely to be successful when they keep their best offensive player in the flow of the game. Weatherspoon, of course, knows this as well and did a great job of manufacturing offensive opportunities for Mabrey in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s loss to Atlanta.
And even when those actions (like the elevator screen at 0:06) don’t pan out as planned, the “stress” an in-motion Mabrey places on the opposing defense is still of considerable value. Against the Sun—who have the league’s lowest defensive rating (92.5 at time of writing), Chicago needs to take advantage of every avenue they have to create confusion and manufacture easy offense. In the previous meeting on May 25th, there was also a clear focus on creating space for Mabrey with screens and misdirection actions like dribble hand-offs.
Against certain opponents (or when Mabrey is really in rhythm) having her bring the ball up and take on the opposing defender one-v-one may be a suitable offensive style, but the length that Connecticut offers 2-5 (particularly from Dijonai Carrington) calls for a more nuanced approach. Expect to see the Sky use plenty more actions like those above on Wednesday with Mabrey also looking to go into the post when she gets a matchup with one of the Sun’s smaller guards like Ty Harris—a mismatch which led to some quality looks in the last meeting.
What Chicago Can Improve: Defensive Rebounding
The Sun destroyed the Sky on the offensive glass—grabbing 16 of the 28 boards available. That differential, unsurprisingly, led to a subsequent Connecticut edge in second-chance scoring (27-7). Of course, this is nothing new for the Sky as they rank 11th in defensive rebounding percentage (70.3%) and 12th in second-chance points allowed (15.2 PPG), but the Sun going far beyond those averages made the chances of a Chicago win extremely remote. So, what can Chicago adapt this time around?
For starters, the return of Kamilla Cardoso should make a considerable difference in keeping Brionna Jones off of the offensive glass. On more than a few occasions in the previous meeting, the Sky had numbers and inside position and still lost the board because of Jones’ size. With Cardoso on the floor, the Sky have a player who—at least from a size perspective—has better odds to contend with the two-time All-Star. Thus far, Cardoso’s influence has only had a marginal positive impact on the Sky’s defensive rebounding numbers (they’re ~1% better with Cardoso on court), but the long-term goal is obviously for her to become an equally as imposing rebounder as Jones.
Beyond Cardoso’s influence, the Sky will need to continue relying on team rebounding. While Jones led the team with 4 offensive boards in the previous meeting, each of the Connecticut starters (plus Tiffany Mitchell) grabbed at least 2 offensive boards—suggesting it was very much a team effort. Early leak outs in transition are useless for the Sky if they don’t secure the board; so, priority 1A for this game should be sending 4-5 players to the glass every time a shot goes up.
Sky at Mystics
Friday, June 14th at 6:30 PM CT on ION
What Chicago Did Well Last Time: Limiting Outside Scoring
Most of Washington’s offense in the previous meeting came from the interior as the Mystics scored 38 points in the paint and 13 more at the free throw line. On top of that, Washington hit just 4 threes, two of which were made by Stefanie Dolson—an interior player. In summation, the Mystics had to work inside for the scores that they did get. At times (particularly when they were building a lead in the first half), the Sky made it too easy for the Mystics to get those scores—with a number of plays ending with Aaliyah Edwards slashing to the basket with little to no shot contest. But when the Sky’s defense eventually woke up and found their intensity in the third quarter, the lack of an established scoring presence outside the paint made life extremely difficult for the Mystics.
Slowing Ariel Atkins, Washington’s most dynamic (healthy) player, was a big part of the success the Sky had. She’s usually done a good bit of her offensive damage in the mid-range, but had no such luck in the previous meeting. A few Sky defenders—particularly Chennedy Carter and Diamond DeShields—took on guarding the Mystics’ most accomplished offensive player, but the Sky shouldn’t expect to have the same luck they did in meeting number one this time around as Atkins, while sometimes put off by the defense, also missed a couple of open looks that she normally makes. In any case, Atkins and the Mystics’ other high-end perimeter shooter Karlie Samuelson are both well below their career three-point numbers and the Mystics are near the bottom of the league in field-goal percentage; so, the Sky can hope to replicate their success to some degree.
What Chicago Can Improve: Offensive Execution
Chicago is 9th in FG% (41%) and 10th in 3PT% (29%) but failed to reach either of those season averages when they slashed 38/7/82 last Thursday in DC. Their defense and important edges in fast-break (+7), second-chance (+7) and free-throw (+5) scoring allowed them to pull out a win, but they shouldn’t expect to do the same again—even against the winless Mystics. One struggle for the Sky was that, like the Mystics, the scoring outside of the lane was nearly non-existent (66 of 79 points were in the paint or at the line), and Washington reacted in kind by tossing extra numbers into the paint—including a stretch in the second quarter where they ran a box-and-one zone that temporarily suffocated the Sky offense.
Check out my full film-study on how the Sky eventually overcame the Mystics’ zone here.
That said, the offense looked much smoother in Saturday’s loss to the Dream (48/27/91 splits), and the actions from Mabrey that I highlighted above figure to be key again in this match-up. Isabelle Harrison and Diamond DeShields, both of whom have shown flashes of efficiency in the mid-range, could also provide important spacing—with Harrison likely to slip towards the corners on occasion in an effort to stretch the Washington defense. When the Sky did get into the paint, the 48 points they scored there reflected the Mystics’ inability to get stops, and the fact Chicago shot just 47% in the paint suggests there’s plenty more to be scored there with some more patience and touch. Moving the ball, of course, can also get the defense out of shape and the Sky continue to record far more assists per game in wins (23) than losses (16).
Sky at Fever
Sunday, June 16th at 11:00 AM CT on CBS
What Chicago Did Well Last Time: Limiting Aliyah Boston
In the previous meeting, Boston was brilliant at the defensive end as the Sky’s starting front court shot just 3/16 but suffered a similar fate at the opposite end as she was just 4/14 and finished with 10 points. When it comes to slowing her down this time, the Sky will be without the services of Elizabeth Williams which is a huge blow, but Cardoso performed well when tasked with guarding Boston in the previous meeting.
Of course, Boston had a few tricks that gave Cardoso trouble, but the Brazilian’s ability to stay with her in space and knock the ball free during a key late-game possession showed she’s up for the task of guarding one of the league’s best centers. Given she’s gotten a few more games under her belt to gather rhythm since (remember the previous meeting was her debut), odds are Cardoso can have an even bigger impact in the rematch. The question, then, is what the Sky throw Boston’s way when Cardoso sits as, presumably, her minutes restriction will not be lifted prior to Sunday’s game. Isabelle Harrison is most likely to draw the assignment and has plenty of defensive credentials to suggest she’ll hold her own, but she lacks the size of Boston and Cardoso. Thus, expect Weatherspoon to carefully manage Cardoso’s minutes so she is able to play the majority of the fourth quarter with Harrison (and potentially Reese in spurts) hoping to hold things down in the minutes where she rests. Keeping Boston off of the defensive glass (she grabbed only 4 defensive rebounds on 6/1) once again would also be a big help and allow the Sky to replicate their edge (+6) in second-chance scoring.
What Chicago Can Improve: Free Throw Shooting
The late-game miss by Mabrey certainly stands out, but the Sky can look back at any one of their 6 missed free throws (12/18) ruefully after losing the previous meeting by just a single point. And to their credit, the Sky’s efficiency has ticked upwards massively since. In the opening 6 games plus the loss in Indianapolis, the Sky shot just 71% on 19 attempts per game, but they’ve shot much better (87%) on more volume (24 FTPG) in the three games since. Whether they can make that a long-term trend and continue to move up the league leaderboard (they’re currently 9th at 76.3%) remains to be seen, but every indication based on the players on the active roster (who entered the year with a lifetime 79.7% clip) is that there’s even more room to grow. For a team that (1) wants to do much of their offensive damage downhill and (2) needs to excel at the little details to win, continuing to trend towards the league average of 79% when they get to the line is of additional value. If Sunday’s game is anything like the previous meeting with Indiana, those small details could prove the difference once again.