Quick Three: Aces 95 Sky 83
Back-to-back champs Las Vegas and MVP frontrunner Wilson give young Chicago team a crash course in execution.
Realistically, the Sky should never expect to beat the Aces, especially as the two-time defending champions inch closer to being at full strength with the return of Chelsea Gray. Yet, Teresa Weatherspoon and her team put up a good fight and, at times throughout tonight’s game, started to eat into the Vegas lead that was ever present after Chicago’s strong opening quarter. Even then, there was a clear gulf between these two teams tonight—which is no reason to be ashamed for the Sky so early in their rebuild. Before moving on to Sunday’s match-up with another of the league’s best teams—Minnesota, let’s reflect on how the Aces set themselves apart and what the Sky can take away from tonight’s game, both good and bad.
1. No substitute for Vegas’ experience and depth.
For all that they did well tonight, the Sky are simply incapable of matching the otherworldly depth of Becky Hammon’s Aces. There’s some impressive players on the Vegas bench, but it’s the depth of their starting line-up that makes them so difficult to overcome. At points in the game, each of A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum took over offensively, and the fluidity of passing and off-ball movement throughout the entirety of the contest meant that the brilliance of the individuals probably wasn’t even necessary to dispatch the Sky. Vegas shot a solid 50% from the floor and 36% from three, but both figures could have been higher. Vegas’ sets generated high quality looks all night long, and they missed a number of open, routine three-pointers that they’d make on many other nights.
To miss so many makable shots and still score 95 points is a real mark of this team’s offensive strength, and the chemistry they have in the half-court is something the Sky simply will not replicate without some more time to better understand each other’s tendencies. As a perfect example, comb back through the shot attempts late in the shot clock from both teams. The majority of the looks the Sky got at the buzzer were desperate threes after the search for a better look proved fruitless while a lot of the Aces’ late clock shots came as the result of an extra pass that turned a good look into a great one. That ability to execute is something the Sky lack at this time, due to both personnel and experience, and it’s hard to keep pace with an offensive juggernaut in that context.
Of course, the defensive prowess of the Aces is also thanks to their chemistry and experience. Wilson and Kiah Stokes were incredibly disruptive in the passing lanes, and the way both bigs protected the paint when Chennedy Carter attacked made it difficult for the guard to match her typical efficiency (45% FG tonight, 55% YTD). Part of that is the individual talent and intelligence of the Aces’ front court players, but the willingness to step across and help is also heavily rooted in long-established trust that a teammate will pick-up whoever you’re leaving behind if the Sky make the extra pass.
2. Lindsay Allen remains efficient and influential.
Carter has, justifiably, drawn a lot of attention after the change in the Chicago starting five a few weeks back, but Allen has played just as big of a role in the successes of the new opening group. Tonight, she authored a period similar to those put together by Vegas’ trio when she was instrumental in the Sky pulling back into the game in the period just before and after halftime. Her efficiency was fantastic (10 pts, 5/7 FG), her shot profile had some important variety and she, as per usual, provided an important calming influence for the offense in the half-court. Toss in four rebounds, a steal and a block, and it’s pretty easy to see from the box score how important Allen was—even if so much of what she offers isn’t always captured by statistics.
Her 0 plus-minus in nearly 35 minutes also speaks to her impact tonight. When one player features for 90% of the game and finishes as a net neutral in a game her team loses by 12, it gives you a pretty big indication that the team suffers when she’s off the floor. For comparison, Wilson was just a +1 tonight. That’s not a criticism of Wilson’s play (she finished with an insane 31-6-3-2-2 line); instead, it speaks to how the Aces can find success with their key players off the floor while the Sky are more likely to struggle. Part of that comes from how the Sky rotations were staggered tonight (more on that in a second) but part of it is simply a sheer difference in quality. Plum had been a near non-factor for the first three quarters at the offensive end but quickly triggered a huge 13-4 run at the start of the fourth that made the climb back for the Sky an insurmountable one (even when Angel Reese again found her groove in the fourth).
3. Dana Evans plays fewest minutes since 2022.
Tonight was just one game, but Evans’ role was also reduced on Sunday against Indiana—just as she had started to find some rhythm in the half-dozen or so prior games (54% 3PT from 6/8-20). Now, in the time she did play, it wasn't a vintage Evans performance. I just got done praising Allen and both Carter and Mabrey cleared the 20-point barrier (albeit on meh efficiency); so, none of what I’m about to say suggests that with Evans playing more minutes the Sky win tonight. Yet, I just can’t see the reasoning behind Evans having such a limited role as the Aces were carving up the Sky’s half-court defense. With Evans on the court, the Sky could’ve applied some full-court pressure and, perhaps, gotten the reigning champions out of their rhythm to some extent.
On top of that, even if Allen, Carter and Mabrey play extremely well, that doesn’t mean Evans should be without a role. Too much of a good thing can quickly turn bad, and the way Vegas’ bigs reacted to those Carter drives and slid across to make easy lay-ins far more difficult is a perfect example. Carter has an elite first step and can get past her defender time and time again, but she’ll never be as long as Wilson or Stokes are. Evans, on the other hand, tends to stop shorter and take floaters in the lane—a style of shot that requires a different reaction from the big as they help. When Evans was on the floor tonight, she didn’t take those shots or get to those areas so this may sound like wishful thinking, but against such a stout interior defense it can’t hurt to introduce some attacking variety.
It’s also worth looking at the personnel alongside Evans when she was on the court. Weatherspoon went to a full bench line-up at the start of the second (after an impressive first), and her team gave up a lot of ground because they simply couldn’t get a stop. Placing in an entirely new five at a key juncture in the game can (and did) destroy a lot of rhythm and make it difficult for the bench players to get up to speed—undermining the good work that your starters have done in the process. The full bench line-ups have made occasional appearances throughout the season and the results, especially since Carter and Allen moved into the starting line-up, have not been great. If the three guards in the starting line-up are going to play 35 minutes anyways, why not rotate the bench group through with different combinations of the starters?
And looking at the bigger picture, planning for the future is an obvious goal for the Sky as a title challenge in 2024 seems improbable. Evans (and Michaela Onyenwere) will be restricted free agents this offseason, and I’m pretty confident in saying we won’t see the best of either with an inconsistent role. Of course, rotational decisions in the present shouldn’t be heavily influenced by planning for the future (if neither is good enough to garner a consistent role they likely won’t be resigned anyways), but I think both players have shown too much to play fewer than 10 minutes for a team that is just 6-10. If making the playoffs is the only goal that matters and planning for the future is not even a thought as this point in time, I can understand some of the decision making (though I don’t agree with the supporting rationale). However, carrying a player like Kysre Gondrezick when the Sky are down to 11 healthy bodies and desperately in need of another shooter seemingly contradicts any “build for the here and now above all else” ideology. Again, neither Evans, Onyenwere or another shooter probably impact the outcome tonight, but the rotations and roles at this stage seem to be consistently putting only five players in the best position to be successful, and Chicago need help from players 6-10 if they want to keep pushing for a spot in the playoffs as the season goes on.