2024 Chicago Sky Season Preview
The Teresa Weatherspoon era begins with a whole-new roster including two headline-grabbing rookies as the Sky seek a sixth-straight playoff trip.
After a barren free agency period, Kahleah Copper made the Sky’s decision to rebuild for them by requesting a trade that immediately changed the franchise’s short-term trajectory. After grabbing the third pick in the process of dealing the 2021 Finals MVP to the Mercury, the Sky made two further trades that gave them another first-round pick—with the pair of selections bringing college rivals Kamilla Cardoso and Angel Reese to the Windy City. With a first-time head coach and GM plus two rookies as, arguably, the franchise’s most recognizable players, Chicago—who has qualified for the playoffs at the end of each of the last 5 seasons—has moved swiftly into a new era with an entirely different cast of characters. It’s extremely unlikely the Sky win the WNBA title at season’s end and get immediate validation for the logic behind their roster overhaul, but the 2024 season will likely play a huge role in laying the team’s foundation if the Sky are to be contenders for that crown again in the next decade. Let’s take a look at the questions that will define what could be a crucial transitional season.
How does Teresa Weatherspoon balance short-term results and long-term development?
This is the key question that the season is built around. This is not expected to be a winning team so developing players should be top priority, but Chicago also have a driven coach, several veterans who will be free agents after the season and an obligation to swap their next two first-round picks to presumed playoff teams. In short, the Sky have inadvertently brewed the perfect recipe for conflict between the short and long term. Publicly, Weatherspoon has been steadfast in her commitment to this season not being a rebuilding year, but the proof will be in the on-court pudding. I get the feeling that Weatherspoon’s comments in that respect are meant more as motivation for the players on the team’s roster than a realistic look at the team’s capabilities in 2024, but we’ll likely get an idea pretty early on of what her true feelings are.
If one (or both) of Reese and Cardoso (post-injury recovery) is a day one starter, that’s a pretty good sign the Sky are leaning into development from the jump given the Sky have a trio of front court veterans who theoretically give the team a better chance to win now. However, the odds are at least one (and quite possibly both) of the starting front court spots does go to a veteran. If that’s the case, the question becomes: when do the Sky go in a different direction? If Chicago rolls out Isabelle Harrison and Elizabeth Williams on opening night, what is the point in the season where they ‘pull the plug’ and make sure their young stars get as much on-court time as possible? Even for a bad team, that’s a really tough call to make. Weatherspoon has mentioned players earning their spot, and it’s tough to stand on that when you tell a player like Williams that you’re going to pull her from the starting line-up, irrespective of her play, because it’s time to focus on developing the rookies.
It’s also tough because none of the other front court options are old enough to rule them out of being a part of the Sky’s next winning team either. Williams (31 in June), Harrison (30) and Brianna Turner (28 in July) will all be free agents after the season, but WNBA contracts are short and roster turnover happens incredibly quickly. If the Sky outperform expectations and land a big free agent to augment their 2025 odds, an all-defense center like Williams could be a great player to have around. Thus, it’s difficult to decide when to burn that bridge. Of course, if Chicago is in the playoff hunt, things become even more challenging. At that point, the case for continuing to roll with the veterans is very clear, but there’s also a worthwhile question to be asked about the merit of pushing for the 7th or 8th seed. On one hand, gaining playoff experience early on can be a great learning opportunity and the Sky won’t have their own pick anyways (i.e. no incentive to ‘tank’). On the other, the Chicago teams of 2025, 2026 and beyond may live to regret the decision to limit Reese and Cardoso’s minutes (by any amount) at the sake of qualifying for the playoffs only to be quickly swept by a Vegas or New York.
Do Onyenwere and Evans Get Paid Next Winter?
Compared to the impending free agents in the front court, the Sky should have no issues getting Michaela Onyenwere and Dana Evans plenty of time on court. Both players are amongst the most likely to help the Sky win now but are also worthy of development for the long-term at 24 and 25 years old—meaning the conflicting priorities of above are less pertinent here. Understanding what both can bring—and getting a ballpark value as they become restricted free agents—should be a key goal given both have shown flashes of two-way potential in their young WNBA careers and could be cornerstones of the franchise’s new era.
For Evans, the Sky need to uncover what her (1) efficiency and (2) playmaking are like in the context of a WNBA starting five. Much has been made of Evans’ efficiency a season ago (36/29/85 splits), and there’s obvious need for that to improve if she’s going to wind up as the long-term starter. However, the type and volume of shots Evans takes could be radically different alongside players of a higher caliber. No disrespect to last year’s Sky bench unit, but there weren’t any offensive powerhouses in the group—with no one consistently showing the ability to go and get a bucket when the team needed it most. Consequently, Evans took a lot of inefficient shots that hurt her numbers in the process. That’s not to say she had to take those bad shots, but it’s worth noting she’ll have better support to work out of those situations with stronger players alongside her. The same goes for her playmaking. Evans experienced considerable growth in this aspect overseas and a higher standard of player alongside her could allow that skill to continue flourishing.
In Onyenwere’s case, the Sky are probably more focused on understanding how big of a role she can take on. She started 27 times last year and played nearly 1,000 minutes, but the role she’ll have in ‘24 should eclipse that by a considerable margin. And while Phoenix went through a coaching change and were over reliant on their veteran core, Onyenwere now joins an organization who have nothing but incentive to develop young players—especially at small forward. The level of play she maintained overseas suggests Onyenwere is ready for a big jump, and the player profile she brings (three-level scoring potential + positional versatility on defense) means someone will talk themselves into paying her next offseason—regardless of what happens this year. While Reese and Cardoso will draw the larger attention, Onyenwere is the Sky player whose growth (which I expect to be substantial) this season could be most critical to the team’s future success. If she flourishes, the Sky will likely be looking at near max money to make her a part of their long-term core. Of course, the Sky still have until May 15th to extend both of these players before the 2024 season.
Is Marina Mabrey a super-duper-star?
I’ve largely talked down the Sky’s chances to make the playoffs in 2024 to this point, but Mabrey is the player who looks most likely to drag the team there. Because of everything that went in to the deal to acquire her, Mabrey caught a lot of unnecessary criticism a season ago, but the truth is her first season in a Sky uniform was a very promising one. She continued to elevate her game overseas, and the table is now set for her to bring the same level of usage and influence she had with European semi-finalists Mersin back to the WNBA. She was a key part of the Sky’s success last year and her best stretches of play often coincided with the team’s, but, this year, Chicago may need her to excel just to tread water in the brutal playoff race. She mentioned in last year’s exit interviews how she had adapted to dealing with more frequent double teams, and those doubles will likely increase by two or even three fold in 2024. To be effective as a scorer this season, Mabrey has to punish teams with her passing.
Again, this is an area where she excelled overseas with Mersin, but the WNBA doubles will be just as aggressive with even better defenders making them. If she can’t carve up opponents passing out of them, opposing coaches will know that they can remove Mabrey from the game as a scorer at any time. If Mabrey is neutralized as a scoring threat, the Sky’s offense should grind to a halt pretty quickly. If she can continue to do what she did overseas, teams will have some very difficult decisions to make. No matter who specifically’s defender is sent to execute the double, the coverage in the paint gets weaker as a result. Given the confidence they should have in their variety of bigs scoring inside, that’s a great outcome for the Sky. Of course, the offense becomes even more dangerous if Evans and Onyenwere (31.5% last season) can hit threes from the kick outs that occur when the defense finds themself in scramble mode after Mabrey breaks the double.
There’s a lot more Mabrey can do to help the Sky be successful (her defensive performances overseas were often game-changing), but this small piece of the offense encapsulates how important she is to the team’s cohesion. The more success she has passing the ball, the better quality of looks she should be able to get as an individual. Put simpler: each facet of her offensive game enhances the other’s chance to be successful. Of course, she also needs help from the coaching staff. No player can be expected to break every double so getting her chances to catch and shoot off of screens will be key to building confidence and rhythm on the nights where the on-ball pressure is suffocating.
What kind of coach is Teresa Weatherspoon?
Other than hungry—what does a Teresa Weatherspoon team actually look like? Besides being (or at least aiming to be) defensively tough, what else does the team aim to excel at? What type of offense will Weatherspoon employ? Given the last time Weatherspoon held a head-coaching position was in 2014 in Conference USA, her previous head coaching experience tells us next to nothing. Her time in the NBA, of course, tells us that she’s had plenty of opportunity to work with some bright minds, but what did she take from them? What did she like and dislike that the coaches she worked alongside did? If you’re catching a trend here, it’s that we have a lot more questions about what Weatherspoon will be than knowledge of what she is. That’s not uncommon (nor bad) for a first time head coach, but it makes it difficult to identify exactly how this Sky team will play—especially on the offensive end.
Another question is whether she prioritizes coaching the style of play she wants to imprint long term or leans more into coaching a style that favors the players on the current roster. Any head coach will need to balance both to be successful long-term, but Weatherspoon likely has some extra incentive to establish her style first and foremost—given the team could have as many as 9 new players again at the start of the 2025 season. The positive for Weatherspoon is that, at least on the defensive end, the players on the current roster—including the two new draft picks—are already in her image. As hinted above, this team will be hungry and that determination is sometimes enough to overcome the bumps a team endures as their head coach figures out how they want the team to play offensively. Weatherspoon’s ability to connect with players and create strong intrapersonal relationships is also a huge advantage. You can be the smartest coach in the world with all the best tactics, but there’s no point if you can’t clearly communicate them to the players. Because she’s such a powerful and effective communicator, each individual’s interpretation of her game plan should be similar—allowing this new team to build on-court cohesion a lot quicker.
Who can space the floor?
The question that, in spite of many positives, could undermine this team’s ability to be successful. Amongst the Sky’s front court options, none have a three point shot. It’s not even that they’re inefficient three-point shooters, this group just doesn’t take them. Reese and Cardoso combined to shoot 34 threes in 241 college games while the aforementioned veteran trio have just 18 attempts in 603 WNBA games (though Harrison hit one of three attempts in the preseason). Onyenwere can play the four in stretches and has shot 32% on 2.6 tries per game in her three W seasons, but a team with five strong front-court options shouldn’t be regularly using a player who will be physically overmatched by the league’s best at the four. That said, there’s a lot more to spacing the floor than shooting threes—which is where the Sky do have some options.
Harrison figures to be the best option in the mid-range as she’s taken plenty in her W career and looked to be developing great rhythm during her brief run in Athletes Unlimited this spring. She’s also a great screener which means the pick-and-pop potential—especially with Mabrey and Evans—is considerable. Even if she’s not taking threes, stepping out and hitting consistently from fifteen feet helps to unclog the paint and open things up. Reese has also shown regular flashes of a solid mid-range game. If she continues to develop at her current rate, her shot will be a useful asset long term, but it’s probably too much to expect her to be a mid-range force in year one. As for the others, none of Turner, Williams or Cardoso looks like a huge threat. Cardoso’s college coach Dawn Staley said on ESPN’s pre-draft coverage that whoever drafted the Brazilian should focus on developing her mid-range game as it’s an untapped asset, but we’ve yet to see it in games and there will be so many other rookie adaptations for her to worry about making in a short space of time whenever she returns from injury.
If the Sky’s bigs can’t hit shots from the mid-range, opposing defenses will clog the paint. This, of course, disrupts the ability of the team’s slashers (Mabrey, Evans and Diamond DeShields) to get inside and hurts the bigs who’s own high-percentage looks are much more well-defended. Not being able to score easy buckets puts even more pressure on Weatherspoon’s offensive sets to be clever enough to unlock the defense. Given all of the veterans are free agents after the season, this is an issue with roster construction that Jeff Pagliocca can iron out pretty quickly next offseason. But in the meantime, the Sky can only hope that the desperate need for spacing forces Reese and Cardoso into developing their shots on a more expedited timeline. While Reese and Cardoso’s development in other areas suggests they can improve their shots long-term, it’s only practical to expect those improvements to take time. In the meantime, the on-court product could sometimes be pretty dysfunctional as a result of the lack of spacing. Given Weatherspoon’s defense-first identity, transition scoring was always going to be an emphasis, but it will be even more important with this context.