2024 WNBA Award Predictions
Could a new face claim the MVP award? Or will A'ja Wilson or Breanna Stewart win their third?
After adding a historically significant draft class to the equation, the WNBA—off the back of a record-breaking 2023 season—is ready for, perhaps, its most highly anticipated season to date in 2024. One of the most hotly debated topics of last season was the MVP race, and the depth of talent in the W figures to make that race a captivating one once again this summer. Who goes down as the early favorites for that award? How about the Defensive Player of the Year? And who from that historic draft class will succeed Aliyah Boston as Rookie of the Year? With less than two weeks to go until the opening games of the WNBA season on May 14th, there’s no time like the present to make some predictions.
Most Valuable Player: Napheesa Collier (Minnesota)
It’s no secret that—in many sports—the ‘best player’ often doesn’t win the MVP award. Thus, it didn’t shock me when A'ja Wilson didn’t win it a season ago. If it goes to the best player in ‘24, Wilson should win it for the third time; however, the MVP will instead likely go to a player who’s case is more narrative driven (though Stewie winning over AT a season ago contradicts that logic somewhat).
One player who could wind up with a pretty compelling 2024 narrative is Collier. After a stunning 2023 season where she came fourth behind the aforementioned three in the MVP voting, Collier played two dominant stints with Turkish giants Fenerbahçe where she performed at a similarly high level and added a reliable three ball (42%) to complement her all-around brilliance. The Lynx won’t be quite as dominant as Fener; so, she probably won’t have so many open threes in the W but any uptick in her three-point mark would make her maybe the most well-rounded player in the league. She’s a high-level defender (4th in the W in stocks per game) and a great rebounder (7th in the W) all while carrying a huge burden on offense (21.5 PPG, 4th in the W [A’ja ranks above her in all of these categories but I digress]). Add to that the fact that the Lynx (1) started last season slow, (2) return much of last' season’s core and (3) added some great talent around Collier, and there’s a lot of complementary factors which suggest she could be even better in 2024. The addition of Courtney Williams alone figures to get Collier lots of easy buckets in the pick-and-roll (or pick-and-pop if the three keeps falling).
With four high-powered teams (Vegas, NY, Phoenix and Seattle) seemingly penciled in for home court, the star of any team that can break that top four figures to get considerable buzz in the MVP chase. Aside from Wilson and Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones is the only other player from the four favorites who could likely generate enough individual buzz to really push for the award. Given each of those players has won the award in the last three seasons, Collier would represent a new face capable of overcoming the voter fatigue that so often causes the media not to vote for the best player. For many similar reasons, Arike Ogunbowale and Rhyne Howard could be top candidates if it’s Dallas or Atlanta, not Minnesota, that threatens the ‘superteams’ for a top-four place.
Coach of the Year: Stephanie White (Connecticut)
Amongst the four favorites I mentioned above, Becky Hammon and Sandy Brondello would need a near perfect season to contend for the award given their established placed in the league while Nate Tibbetts and Noelle Quinn will likely be punished for their team’s strong offseason. Consequently, I think the winner of this award comes from the group of chasers behind. And from that group, I’m picking White to win this award—becoming the first back-to-back winner since Van Chancellor won three in a row from 1997-99. Despite Connecticut’s fantastic 2023 season, they figure to enter this season under the radar once again. The loss of Tiffany Hayes has an obvious impact but Tiffany Mitchell’s arrival should be able to offset the departure while the return of Brionna Jones from injury should further revitalize Connecticut’s core.
For all of those reasons, the Sun will likely outperform expectations once again. I have them penciled in for the 6-7 range in the standings, and even I fear that prediction will pale in comparison to their final finishing position. By the time all is said and done, they probably end up closer to (if not securing) home court than most will predict mainly because their whole continues to be more than the sum of their parts. For that to remain possible, a great coach is needed and White definitely fit that billing last season. If it’s not White, look for Tanisha Wright to be a strong candidate for this award. Atlanta’s offseason roster moves have gone under the radar but put the Dream in an excellent position to have an outstanding season—especially if Howard makes the leap from All-Star to All-WNBA. If she does, expect the award buzz for both player and coach to gain significant traction this fall.
Rookie of the Year: Caitlin Clark (Indiana)
This feels like a foregone conclusion, but the actual race for this award should be much closer than the end of season voting totals will likely suggest. If we look at the two-way impact each will offer, I expect Cameron Brink to be just as valuable for the Sparks as Clark will be for the Fever, but the media attention and the stats that everyone tracks (read: points) will slant heavily towards Clark. Even if both teams miss the playoffs (a definite possibility), eyes will remain on Clark during the entire season while Brink and the Sparks—in year two of their rebuild with Curt Miller—will likely fade into the background. That said, I do think Clark will have a remarkable rookie season even if I don’t envision her separating herself from Brink in the way the end-of-season vote will likely show. Brink’s teammate Rickea Jackson is probably the only player with a realistic chance to challenge Clark for the ‘24 rookie scoring title and the rookie record for assists (225 by Ticha Penicheiro in ‘98) is also a realistic target for Clark who had 346 assists in her senior year (though the per game record of 7.5 per game that Penicheiro set in just 30 games is a taller task).
As for dark horses, I mentioned UConn’s Aaliyah Edwards as one in my coverage before the draft, and the now Mystics forward is probably the player not named Clark or Brink most likely to make a serious push for the award. She’ll benefit from plenty of playing time and a very pro-ready game at both ends of the court that should allow her to put together a solid across-the-board stat line in year one. Of course, if Jackson does put up huge scoring numbers, she too could get some buzz for the award at season’s end.
Sixth Player of the Year: Sami Whitcomb (Seattle)
This is a tricky award to predict without knowing who will or will not wind up as a starter, but I see one of Whitcomb or Seattle teammate Jordan Horston winding up as the frontrunner when all is said and done. From a strictly size perspective, you’d expect Quinn to lean towards the taller Horston (6’2” vs. 5’10”) as the fifth starter, but both will get plenty of playing time with Seattle’s core group (Loyd, Diggins-Smith, Ogwumike and Magbegor) regardless. No matter their respective roles, the ultimate outcome should be a great season for both players. Assuming the new look team is able to build cohesion (and, again, because of Quinn I think they will), the rising tide should lift all boats and whoever doesn’t start should become an instant frontrunner for this award.
As for other contenders, expect Alysha Clark, Kalani Brown and DiJonai Carrington all to figure amongst the voting once again if they meet the criteria while whoever comes off of Phoenix’s bench (Rebecca Allen, Sug Sutton or even Sophie Cunningham) could also wind up a realistic candidate. One of Alanna Smith or Dorka Juhász (both of whom cannot start alongside Collier) should also have impressive numbers off the bench in Minnesota.
Defensive Player of the Year: A'ja Wilson (Las Vegas)
Unlike the MVP award which is so often driven by narrative and single-season performance, voters in both the W and the NBA have traditionally seemed more open to simply awarding the Defensive Player of the Year award to the league’s best defender (shocking, I know). As such, it’s hard for me to think of too many players who could wrestle the award away from Wilson—the winner each of the last two seasons. Her combination of intelligence, physical ability and work rate at the defensive end is unmatched and, consequently, there’s no reason to expect a drop off in her productivity this season.
As for players who could challenge her? Ezi Magbegor is the first name that comes to mind. She was second in the league in blocks (the stat that matters most for this award) a season ago and, despite not getting votes for this award or a first-team all-defense nod, she’s definitely on the shortlist of the league’s best defensive players—with her game continuing to improve both in the W and overseas with Czech powerhouse Praha. Her team and her offensive numbers should both improve in 2024 and, despite this being a defensive award, both of those factors matter in getting the attention needed to win. I don’t see Magbegor winning it this season, but, in the long run, the Australian should win this prize several times—with Seattle’s current roster likely to shine a much-deserved spotlight on her burgeoning game in 2024. Phoenix could also have several contenders this season with Brittney Griner another top rim protector and both of Kahleah Copper and Natasha Cloud amongst the league’s premier perimeter defenders. If Phoenix’s defense is historically good (a definite possibility) and they secure a top 2-3 seed in the playoffs, Griner’s chances to threaten Wilson’s three-peat are much higher.
Most Improved Player: Shakira Austin (Washington)
Austin strikes me as an obvious candidate here in the same mold of last year’s winner (Satou Sabally) given she clearly has the talent but didn’t have the injury luck needed last season to have a huge leap in her second season. Back at 100% and with a new look roster in Washington, there’s no reason why she shouldn’t be given ample runway to become the team’s franchise cornerstone by season’s end. Whereas Aliyah Boston (another semi-realistic candidate) would need an astronomical leap in production after her excellent 2023 stats, Austin has the benefit of improving upon numbers from last year which are ‘bad’ enough to allow her to win this award with realistic increases. The only thing standing in her way? Team success—with Washington potentially a forgotten team, especially in the national landscape, given their expected place towards the bottom of the standings.
If it’s not Austin, Horston and Magbegor could be practical candidates from an ‘eye test’ perspective though their improvements likely won’t show as much statistically given their distinguished teammates. Other names I like as outsiders are Los Angeles’ Li Yueru (who has had a great overseas campaign and could be given plenty of playing time with the Sparks) and the Fever’s NaLyssa Smith (who should benefit from increased attention from the national media and decreased attention from opposing defenses). Minnesota’s Sika Koné, who I mentioned as a candidate for the award last year, could still win it with enough playing time but looks stuck in the Lynx’s logjam of capable front court options.