2024 WNBA Power Ranking Tiers (Pre-Pre-Draft Edition)
With free agency (mostly) in the rearview, a quick look at how the 2024 standings might shake out and where the Sky stand.
With most of the big names off the board and the trade market quiet for now, it’s time to start thinking about where each of the WNBA’s 12 teams and the roster they’ve constructed stands ahead of what promises to be a highly-competitive 2024 season.
Who can beat the Aces? Which team will have the best odds of selecting Paige Bueckers in the 2025 draft? How does each team’s new additions impact their playoff odds? Read on to find out my thoughts!
JUMP TO TEAM
ATL | CHI | CON | DAL | IND | LA | LV | MIN | NY | PHO | SEA | WAS
Tier 1: The Aces Tier
Las Vegas Aces
I feel like, after two consecutive titles, the Aces are entitled to a tier of their own. Any time you’re trying to three-peat, there’s two concerns that come to mind almost immediately: complacency and bad luck. When it comes to the former, I don’t see any concerns for the Aces. A’ja Wilson has ambitions to be considered the best player of all time, and she’s well aware that two titles isn’t enough for her to claim that crown. The rest of the team — coach Becky Hammon included — just don’t strike me as the ‘content’ types. As for bad luck, it will be harder for the Aces to get much worse luck than they did in the Finals a year ago (never mind Candace Parker dealing with injuries all year). The injury bug could hit them again, but they’ve already shown they can weather that and keep winning. For now, the Aces remain in a league of their own.
Tier 2: The Likely Title Contenders
These are the teams that — out of the box — look most ready to challenge the Aces for their crown.
New York Liberty
For now, I think the Liberty are still second in the pecking order. There’s an argument to be made that a few of the teams below have a higher ceiling, but none of those teams will bring as much continuity into the 2024 season. As we saw at times with the Liberty last season (and with dozens of other teams across all sports), it’s tough bringing a whole new group of players together. In their second season, the Liberty probably don’t have everything figured out yet either, but they’re bound to be closer to their finished product than teams which will meet for the first time when training camp opens. Also, as good as so many of the teams in the W look, few have two players with individual ceilings as high as Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart. Last season, it felt like a lot of the best basketball those two played was when the other was ‘struggling.’ The more often they sync up their dominant periods in 2024; the better the Liberty can be. Another jump from Betnijah Laney — probably the Liberty’s third best player—is also key to a Finals return.
Seattle Storm
If/when everything comes together for the Storm, there’s a very strong argument that their big three (Ogwumike, Loyd, Diggins-Smith) is stronger than the Liberty’s. As far as synergy and fit, the two stars who’ve joined Jewell Loyd in the Pacific Northwest bring a lot of unique skills that should help the collective avoid becoming one (or even two) dimensional. Looking down the roster, the Storm also have a lot of the pieces you’d look for on a contending team in place. There’s a rising ‘fourth’ option (Ezi Magbegor), a savvy veteran shooter (Sami Whitcomb), a bench big who can dominate down low (Mercedes Russell) and a young player with long-term all-WNBA potential (Jordan Horston). With Noelle Quinn, I think the Storm also have a coach who — despite her youth — is up to the task of guiding a newly constructed super team and the egos that inevitably come with that. We can’t be sure until they get on court together and start building chemistry, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Storm wind up in the WNBA Finals this fall.
Phoenix Mercury
This team, for me, feels very boom or bust. Whereas I expect Seattle to come together in time, there’s a marginal chance that this group never pans out — for a number of reasons. That said, I’m very bullish about Phoenix’s odds of figuring things out. For starters, they have astronomical defensive potential. Natasha Cloud and Kahleah Copper are, for me, two of the top 5 perimeter defenders in the league while their size (plus that of Rebecca Allen and several others) will allow the Mercury to employ a range of different coverages in front of Brittney Griner — who’s still a premier shot blocker on the back end. Offensively, each of those players bring quite a bit to the table while Diana Taurasi is still a (moderately efficient) bucket and Sug Sutton returns on an extremely team-friendly deal after an impressive season in 2023. With even more moving pieces than Seattle, an acclimation period is inevitable here. New coach Nate Tibbetts has only been a head coach at the G-League level and lacks WNBA experience of any kind; his work is cut out for him. If all these new and unique personalities mesh, this team will be a nightmare to face in the fall, but that’s a big if for now.
Tier 3: If Our Superstar Just…
These are the teams that should make the playoffs but can climb even higher — and maybe make a title push — if their marquee player has an extraordinary season.
Atlanta Dream
With their clever offseason additions, I’m very tempted to bump the Dream up into Tier 2 — especially since I expect Rhyne Howard to jump from All-Star to All-WNBA candidate this season. That said, I’m leaving Atlanta just a step below for now while we see if their defense can make a leap forward in 2024. Atlanta weren’t an awful defensive team in 2023, but they were also only seventh-best in points allowed. Adding a pair of excellent defenders in Tina Charles and Jordin Canada should certainly help — with even marginal improvement allowing more room for their offensive talent to shine. Other players — looking at you Aerial Powers — make this team so exciting from an offensive perspective, but I can’t look past Howard when evaluating where this team will end up. As Atlanta transitions from fun young team into legit title hopefuls in the coming years, Howard’s level of play will likely decide how smooth that transition is. Haley Jones — who had an up-and-down first season in the W— could also be a huge asset on both ends with a step forward in her second season.
Connecticut Sun
I’m underestimating this team — right? The calculus in dropping them down the standings is that Alyssa Thomas did so many things last year that we’ve never seen before. Even if she’s really really good in 2024, Thomas might not be able to hit the levels we saw from her a season ago. Then again, Brionna Jones returns from injury and, suddenly, Thomas doesn’t need to carry as much of the load in some areas. In other words, the Sun may well wind up higher than the #6 seed—with the gap between 4 and 8 looking to be nearly non-existent at this stage — but I’m not too sure how much it matters. Home court is nice but if you’re a top 4 seed waiting on a playoff match-up with the Sun; you won’t be taking solace in the fact that they’re a lower seed — you’ll just be wary of the threat they bring.
Dallas Wings
Beyond adding Emma Cannon (a smart but not decisive signing), Dallas have largely focused on retaining the team that helped them push the Aces to the limit in all three games of last year’s semi-final sweep. Thus, it seems like the key offseason additions the team makes will come from the draft — where they have the 5th and 9th overall picks. Beyond adding a point guard — which looks to be something of a necessity, it’s not totally clear what the Wings will do with their other pick or whether both picks will even make it on to a crowded roster. Thus, any evaluation of this team has to primarily focus on how the players on the roster can continue to improve. Latricia Trammell helped Dallas improve considerably on the defensive end last yet, but another year of work — especially with Satou Sabally and Arike Ogunbowale who each took big steps in 2023— could be the difference between Dallas staying still and progressing to threaten the Aces one again. After the draft, we should know more about where the Wings truly stand.
Minnesota Lynx
Minnesota are an interesting team because — despite trading Tiffany Mitchell and losing Jessica Shepard to overseas commitments — I think they probably got better by adding Courtney Williams and Alanna Smith from Chicago. With Natisha Hiedeman also coming back in the Mitchell deal and the 7th pick in the draft still en route, it’s possible that the Lynx open 2024 with a better roster than last year but on course for a worse finish. The culprit? A free agency period that saw two of the teams below them in the standings make big jumps forward into the league’s upper echelon. As a result, Minnesota — even with a fun roster, a championship-winning coach and a legit MVP-caliber player in Napheesa Collier — seem like they could be a bit stuck behind the collection of teams pushing all their chips into the center of the table. That said — just as I mentioned when discussing the Sun above, the gap between this team and the 3–4 teams immediately in front of them is marginal. If the Lynx can avoid the 8 seed and the presumptive Aces match-up in the first round of the playoffs, they’re more than talented and well-rounded enough to go beyond the first round.
Tier 4: We Got Next
Drafting back to back generational prospects puts you in a unique realm. The question: can the Fever’s (potential) duo go directly to the playoffs?
Indiana Fever
Indiana were flat out bad at times last year, but they were also pretty good on more than a few occasions as well. With another year of professional development for Aliyah Boston (who was already a standout in ’23) and the potential addition of Caitlin Clark with the first pick in the draft, the Fever are in prime position to pick off a playoff position if any one of the teams in front struggles for an extended period. That said, I’d still expect it to take at least one year for the Fever’s superstar duo to get acclimated to playing together. Given how young their core will be, I don’t think missing the playoffs and going back in the lottery with solid odds in 2025 is such a bad thing (especially with Paige Bueckers going back to UConn), but I’m also not ready to write the Fever off for 2024 just yet either. Kelsey Mitchell is still a bucket, Clark’s playmaking will help Boston just as much as her scoring and Katie Lou Samuelson and Damiris Dantas are both intriguing additions in free agency. If last year’s bar (18–22) for the eight seed remains, I see this team with Clark in the mix. However, I think the teams above will raise that bar just enough to keep Indiana out.
Tier 5: Not Our Time (Yet)
These are teams that could have playoff potential if someone above slips up or faces a key injury but are more likely to be on the outside looking in.
Chicago Sky
Folks are very pessimistic about the Sky these days, but the roster that the Sky’s new front office has put together for Teresa Weatherspoon’s first season is actually quite interesting. Marina Mabrey and Dana Evans both made leaps in 2023 and now have space to make bigger ones in 2024 while other players (Sika Koné and Michaela Onyenwere) are well positioned for bigger roles and breakouts of their own. Add some clever veteran names (Lindsay Allen and Brianna Turner), returnees with something to prove (Isabelle Harrison and Diamond DeShields) and a couple of low-risk high-reward young players (Kysre Gondrezick and Chennedy Carter) and this team has a lot of ingredients to be, at the very least, interesting. Even if everything comes together (including Rebekah Gardner being re-signed) and the #3 and #8 picks are a hit, I still think the Sky suffer from the same abundance of quality above as the Fever, but I don’t see this team heading straight for last place like some others.
Los Angeles Sparks
With Ogwumike and Canada gone and two lottery picks on the way in April’s draft, it’s obvious the Sparks are accepting a rebuild. With one of the league’s best coaches at the helm and a reliable core of veterans already in place, it’s not impossible that the Sparks hit the ground running with some combination of players including Cameron Brink from a historically deep draft class. That said, there’s going to be a lot of new faces when camp opens and, thus, even an extremely positive viewpoint would still see the Sparks facing many challenges in 2024. Somewhat unconventionally, two of the three players LA will likely focus most on developing next year will probably be rookies (with sophomore Zia Cooke being the other). With that comes a lot of mistakes and, presumably, some difficult losing streaks that bury LA’s playoff chances. Yet, Curt Miller also has a handful of veterans on this roster who are ‘winning’ players (Layshia Clarendon, Dearica Hamby and Azurá Stevens for instance). The on-court contributions those players bring — and the veteran leadership they add off the court — could wind up making them more competitive than otherwise expected.
Washington Mystics
With no clarity on Elena Delle Donne’s future at this time, it’s difficult to say where the Mystics are at after Natasha Cloud left in free agency. Their roster has some fun young players — Queen Egbo and Shakira Austin for instance — but it’s difficult to see either of their free agent additions (Karlie Samuelson and Stefanie Dolson) or their draft pick (#6 overall) being enough to compensate for the loss of two cogs of their 2019 championship team. I’m excited to see what Ariel Atkins will do with even more minutes and I imagine Brittney Sykes will have more than enough space to back up her career season in 2023, but I’m concerned they’ll be a bit off the pace if EDD doesn’t play next year. That said, if the #6 pick is an instant impact player, Atkins’ numbers reflect those she had with more playing time in 2021 and 2022 and Austin has better luck with injuries, this team still has a lot of ingredients to be pretty feisty (and could well jump past Los Angeles and Chicago). For now, that’s a lot of maybes, but Washington has a lot of upward potential despite being at the bottom of the pile for now.
