2025 Chicago Sky Season Preview
The Tyler Marsh era begins with a retooled roster, featuring sophomores Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso, as the Chicago Sky aim for a return to the playoffs.
After describing last year as a “crucial transition season” in my 2024 Sky season preview, Chicago—bolstered by the presence of two players who excelled in their rookie campaigns—seems ready to move past transitioning in 2025. The addition of a former Olympian, All-Star and WNBA Champion via a trade loaded with both risk and reward positions the franchise to be more competitive this season, but the amount of youth on the roster and another coaching change means the Sky also aren’t entirely out of the “rebuilding” woods either. With that in mind, the 2025 season is one that should offer plenty of growth opportunities for the Sky—irrespective of whether the season’s broader theme becomes the franchise’s continued transition or a quick pivot to competing in the playoffs. Let’s dive into the key questions that will define this season plus the future answers Chicago should start seeking during the course of the 2025 campaign.
Do the Sky have enough shooting?
Spacing was a known problem for the Sky even before the 2024 season began, and it proved to be a nearly insurmountable issue for much of the post-Olympics portion of the season when Chicago was comfortably bottom of the W in points (74.6) and three pointers made (5.3) per game. GM Jeff Pagliocca was, of course, not naïve to this issue—especially after moving Marina Mabrey—and made a number of signings this offseason that should help improve the three-point volume and efficiency numbers while helping create a healthier offensive ecosystem for first-year head coach Tyler Marsh to operate in. The question, then, is whether this winter’s additions bring enough shooting to keep the floor well-spaced. Ultimately, spacing remains crucial to building a consistent offense around two franchise cornerstones, Reese and Cardoso, who—at least heading into the season—aren’t known for stretching the defense themselves.
Statistically speaking, it’s difficult to give a definite yes or no answer to that question as the historical three-point shooting numbers for this year’s opening day roster are not that different than the ones the 2024 team had.
That said, key differences suggest the 2025 team is far better positioned to space the floor and ease the burden on its interior scorers in half-court sets.
The first is the difference in the overall volume of attempts taken by this year’s opening day roster in 2024, compared to last year’s group in 2023, and how that volume is spread across the roster. This year’s roster has twice as many players (6) that attempted at least one three per game in the prior year as last season’s (3) did. In total, that amounts to about 4.7 extra threes shot per game—which would have been enough to move the 2024 Sky from a distant last place (14.9) in attempts per game up into the mix with the Sun (18.0), Wings (19.2) and Dream (19.4) who all finished just above Chicago last season.
On top of that, there’s a historical precedent for this team that exists when it comes to shooting the three ball as five different players (Vandersloot, Atkins, Nurse, Banham and Allen) have attempted over 500 threes in their WNBA career as compared to just one player (Mabrey) on the roster at the start of last season. Some of that, of course, can be attributed to the higher experience level of this year’s perimeter group (the vets on the 2024 team were primarily non-shooting bigs like Elizabeth Williams, Isabelle Harrison and Brianna Turner), but there’s also a reason that group of five’s green light to shoot the three has had such longevity in the league. Each of their reputations as an even semi-reliable outside shooting threat contributes to the way opposing coaches gameplan and, more importantly, the way opposing defenders execute that gameplan. Even in the age of analytics, the perception of a player’s skillset still plays, at the very minimum, a subconscious role in the way they’re defended.
One final difference worth keeping an eye on is how this year’s team has shot better over the course of their careers than they did last season, while the 2024 roster was coming off a 2023 season that outpaced its lifetime mark. The key differentiator for this year’s team in that respect? Courtney Vandersloot. While every other player with a regular volume of threes shot within one percent of (or above) their career mark last season, Vandersloot came in nearly 7% below her career average. While Vandersloot’s reputation as a respectable 33.7% shooter lifetime is probably enough to keep defenders close to her at the perimeter for now, that won’t last forever if she continues to shoot just above 25%. The impact of having a version of Vandersloot who keeps the defense honest, even without the basketball, could be what separates the Sky from having average (or even good) spacing and trending slowly back toward last year’s packed paint.
Whatever the case with Vandersloot, the Sky have definitely made overall improvements when it comes to spacing the floor as compared to last season’s team. Entering the season with at least 5 players (Allen, Atkins, Banham, Nurse and Onyenwere) Chicago expects to comfortably clear 30% plus a few others (Vandersloot, Westbeld, Van Lith) who have a reasonable chance to do the same means there’s nearly endless line-up possibilities with a couple of shooters in the mix compared to last season. So long as Reese and Cardoso are not spacers themselves, there will always be concerns about Chicago’s ability to stretch teams out—hence Marsh’s comments about wanting to help everyone on the roster expand their range. Yet, moving on from the roster build last season which regularly left Chicago with four players on the court that struck no fear into the defense from the three-point line was a critical offseason goal, and the Sky’s front office has done enough this offseason to ensure that dynamic is a rare (if not entirely nonexistent one) this time around.
How quickly can Marsh modernize the offense?
This is a unique question in the sense that, the Sky don’t necessarily need the answer in 2025, but the sooner Marsh can trend towards providing it, the better odds this team has of reaching the postseason in his first year on the bench. Of course, the dialogue above about the Sky’s improved ability to space the floor should also ease the process for Marsh after Teresa Weatherspoon—even if she was a brilliant offensive mind—was dealt a very limited hand with which to craft a flexible and dynamic offense. That being said, no one would’ve mistaken Weatherspoon or her staff for offensive savants given the seeming lack of complexity, offensive structure and consistent patterns of play that the Sky demonstrated throughout the 2024 season. Compared to the second half of the 2023 season when Chicago (for better or for worse) was one of the W’s most regimented offensive teams in Emre Vatansever’s pick-and-roll driven system, last year felt like a lot of freestyling with a roster that—especially after Mabrey was traded—didn’t have the caliber of players needed to hit the right notes.
Under Marsh—a coach who’s learned (and won) under Becky Hammon, Nick Nurse, and Rick Carlisle in his young career—the offense should take a step forward in a number of areas. The first is in organization and structure; improvement in these two areas should lend itself to the Sky developing a clear offensive identity over time—something they never found in 2024. Once Marsh has everyone singing from the same hymn sheet, the key will be adding flexibility and diversity to the offensive sets that the team runs. Given so much of the offense is likely to involve the ball ending up in one of Reese or Cardoso’s hands, it’s crucial that Marsh puts actions in place that give both the opportunity to work with the ball in space.
Working with Vandersloot in the pick-and-roll on an even semi-regular basis should generate plenty of those looks for both of the bigs—especially if they can make a secondary pass after receiving the ball from Vandersloot in the short roll. However, there’s also plenty that each can do in individual actions. Cardoso, because of the skill she demonstrated as a passer, is already a prime candidate to receive the ball away from the basket and make decisions, while Reese’s ability to beat players off the dribble means there’s ample offensive opportunity to be had by getting her the ball at or near the elbow.
In Cardoso’s case, Weatherspoon’s staff seemed to do a good job of creating chances for her to showcase that skillset, but Reese was a nearly non-existent off-the-dribble threat later in the season after showing flashes of how dangerous she could be in those spots in the early stages of her rookie campaign. If Marsh can offer both players the opportunity to demonstrate those unique (for their position) skill sets on a regular basis, it should help quickly add some important depth and layers to the myriad of “industry standard” offensive sets he’ll carry with him from his assistant coaching experience.
Should Atkins get a max extension?
While the offense can continue to take shape beyond this season, Pagliocca and Marsh must make a decision on Atkins’ future based solely on what they see from her in the system’s 2025 form. Whether they love or hate their prized new acquisition’s production this season, it’s the only first-hand data point the Sky’s front office will have when deciding whether to offer Atkins a max extension (whatever that looks like, given the looming CBA renegotiation) before the 2026 season. And because of that CBA change and the nearly league-wide free agency that will accompany it, Atkins’ situation is a very unique one compared to your average arrival in a high-profile trade.
Under normal circumstances, Atkins would seem like a near lock to be offered a max (or near-max) extension with Chicago after the season. Having committed a lottery pick and a swap in the coveted 2027 draft to bring Atkins to town, Pagliocca—barring a disastrous season or major injury—would have no choice but to offer the former Mystic a big contract, knowing that any other course of action would be seen as admitting fault for a poorly timed trade.
Yet, the potential of the upcoming WNBA offseason and the endless alternatives to Atkins that will be available on the market mean that, even if she plays well, there could be other options that fit Chicago’s current or future context better. Thus, there’s an added emphasis—for both player and team—to understand the fit over the course of this season with knowledge that both parties will have plenty of exit strategies on offer in the offseason. This dynamic, while not unique to the Sky and affecting many teams and players league-wide, is different in the sense that it feels as though both the player and the team hold all and none of the leverage at the same time.
Regardless, Atkins was acquired now for a reason. Pagliocca’s aggressiveness in pursuing a deal suggests (1) that he and his staff believe winning in 2025 is possible and (2) that Atkins would be a high-end target even once the majority of the league is available next winter. Otherwise, why make this deal now?
Washington’s roster position means Atkins will likely still have some incentive to leave next offseason while the Sky could have pocketed a valuable prospect on a cost-controlled deal in the meantime. Instead, Chicago punted the chance to have the best of both worlds in order to put its focus on Atkins. To me, that suggests that—even in this unprecedented winter of free agency—it’s the player, Atkins, who has the slight upper hand, with Pagliocca unlikely to want to watch a high-profile trade acquisition depart after just 12 months in Chicago.
The lasting question, then, is whether Atkins plays up to the level of the deal her reputation will likely command. If Atkins is just an average fit with Chicago’s young frontcourt (which will remain the focus of the roster build, given their contracts through 2027), is it still full steam ahead toward an extension? And if the answer to that question—as I suspect it will be—is yes, what would have to happen on the court for Atkins not to be the 1A target for Chicago’s front office next offseason? And what level of on-court success—or lack thereof—would convince Pagliocca and company that the ceiling of this core is too low to achieve the ultimate goal: winning a championship?
In the end, Atkins could depart as a high-priced rental with Pagliocca (or his successor) deciding to pivot the roster’s direction to a new perimeter star, but it’s worth wondering where the Atkins trade has left Chicago philosophically and how that impacts (1) the evaluation of her play and fit this season and (2) the eventual decision on moving forward with a long-term extension.
Can Cardoso take a leap?
Even for a high-draft pick with an exciting profile, Cardoso was impressive as a rookie. The leaps she took as a defender in space during her final collegiate season seemed to stick, her efficiency as a scorer around the basket wasn’t far behind that of other top WNBA bigs in their debut campaigns, and her passing—both in the post and farther from the basket—was a pleasant surprise. With so much improvement over her last 18 months and plenty more potential left to be realized, it’s natural to expect the Brazilian to improve in her second season. And it doesn’t feel ludicrous to say that, with time and steady progression, Cardoso will grow to become the centerpiece of the Sky’s roster for the next decade-plus. Assuming Cardoso continues to progress, the question is whether she can do so at an exponential—rather than steady—rate. Because, as it stands, a huge leap by Cardoso looks like the Sky’s most likely avenue to push up the standings and into the playoffs during the 2025 season.
Of course, Chicago has no need for Cardoso to take those huge leaps just yet because, ultimately, the odds of winning a WNBA Championship feel remote regardless. Yet, it would be a promising indicator for the Sky (who don’t own their 2026 draft pick anyways) to gain valuable playoff experience and see Cardoso elevate herself from exciting prospect to certified franchise cornerstone after two seasons with the organization. Such a leap would solidify Chicago’s odds to continue climbing in 2026, make the franchise a more attractive destination next winter (more on that to come) and reaffirm the (so far wise) decision to choose her as the team’s “next big thing” after the Kahleah Copper trade.
Even if Cardoso shows only modest growth in 2025, I’d still expect Pagliocca and Marsh—rightfully so—to view her as a long-term building block. But there’s a stratosphere of talent that allows players to elevate their teams beyond good or even great, into the realm of routine championship contention. Based on her rookie season, Cardoso seems, at least to me, to have the talent needed to reach that level—and a significant jump toward that elite company in 2025 (even if it’s unlikely she gets all the way there just yet) would put her firmly on the path to joining that group one day.
Can Chicago position itself as a free agent destination?
The Sky would love to win plenty of games in 2025, climb up the standings, and even contend for a WNBA title. However, the reality is that this roster doesn’t appear to have enough to challenge any of the serious contenders this season. With that, and the nearly league-wide free agency this winter in mind, Chicago’s number one goal for this season (as is the case for probably two-thirds of the league—whether they’ll admit it or not) has to be positioning itself as a premier destination ahead of 2026 free agency. Let’s go through a quick checklist of what needs to happen over the next eight months or so for the Sky to get there:
1. Complete the new training facility in Bedford Park.
Every indication is that, even with some delays, the Sky’s new training facility will be ready for players at the start of training camp in 2026. This is a non-negotiable for attracting top talent.
2. Establish a culture.
Many people in the organization can be held accountable for this, but Marsh plays the biggest role. Last season’s team had an identity but seemingly lacked the culture to support it. With Reese and Cardoso still the centerpieces of the roster, the "gritty" (cliché, but in this case, applicable) identity of last year’s team should persist. However, the rumored behind-the-scenes issues with key tenets, like accountability, can’t continue under Marsh.
3. Develop Reese & Cardoso.
Free agents are already intrigued by the prospect of playing with this pair, and Chicago may have been able to land one or two big-name free agents this winter if #1 had already been checked off. However, the excitement of what these players can become will only last for so long—further growth is needed to continue drawing interest.
4. Win.
As mentioned, #1 is non-negotiable, but Chicago can probably paper over slow (or somewhat nonexistent) progress with #2 and 3 if they put together a solid record in 2025. Making the playoffs remains a big ask, but many free agents will have an extra degree of interest if they see this growing Chicago team in the postseason with a first-time head coach and a fancy new facility on the way.
5. Showcase Organizational Stability.
The new facility suggests that the Sky are making progress in terms of the ownership’s commitment to winning, but there are still obvious questions about the stability of the off-court personnel. Marsh seems to be a great hire, but Pagliocca—despite a couple of home-run moves—has swung extremely aggressively (sometimes without clear intent). Meanwhile, the decision to move on from Weatherspoon (which I assume came from those above the GM) after just one season remains a bit of a question mark, given the results were better than anticipated in 2024. These types of inconsistencies are things some players simply don’t care about (money and playing time are far more important), but stability throughout the organization is key to building a consistent contender, and that’s still a work in progress for the Sky.