2025 WNBA Award Predictions
Can anyone dethrone A'ja as MVP? Is Paige the clear cut rookie of the year? Plus, a surprise pick for Most Improved.
Aside from the mostly obvious choice of Caitlin Clark for Rookie of the Year, I came up completely empty in my 2024 WNBA award predictions, but picking the eventual MVP and DPOY to win the opposite award suggests I was at least close to the right track. With a fresh season just a couple of weeks away, let’s take a look at who I’ve got nabbing each of the league’s major honors this time around.
Most Valuable Player: Napheesa Collier (Minnesota)
My ‘24 Pick: Collier, 2024 Winner: A'ja Wilson (Las Vegas)
I picked Collier over Wilson last year with the caveat that, if this award went to the best player, Wilson should win it for a third time. And while narratives and voter fatigue often keep the MVP award away from the best player, Wilson was simply too exceptional not to claim the league’s highest individual honor a season ago—even as Collier and 2023 winner Breanna Stewart put together historic seasons of their own. In 2025, I expect Wilson to be the league’s best player once again, but I’m doubling down on the expectation I had last season that, at some point, greatness becomes normalized in the chase for these awards. With that (and the addition of another super star like Jewell Loyd) in mind, I see Wilson losing just enough votes to miss out on this award even if she puts up another historic season.
And if she doesn’t win, I see three clear candidates for the award: Collier, Stewart and Caitlin Clark. Stewart may suffer from some of the same issues as Wilson—particularly having a pair of fellow award candidates on her team—and Clark likely needs a top three seed to claim this award in just her second professional season; so, I’ll return to my Collier pick from a season ago. In most (if not every) other WNBA seasons, Collier’s 2024 performances would’ve won the MVP award going away, and her level in Unrivaled provided no indication that she’ll drop off in 2025. Minnesota returns the roster that took them to the Finals a season ago and, while Collier should already have been as household as household names come before the 2024 season, a trip to the Finals likely helped increase her notoriety amongst some of the ballot holders who are detached from the WNBA ecosystem outside of the market they cover.
The only issue that could come in the way of a Collier victory is a slight slip in the standings. No matter how well she plays, it’s unlikely she’ll take the award from Wilson or Stewart if the Lynx finish any lower than third in the standings, and a spot that high up the table is far from guaranteed—even for a team with a roster so strong. Yet, I still expect Minnesota to be a top two seed barring a major injury—opening the door for Collier to claim this award for the first time.
Coach of the Year: Becky Hammon (Las Vegas)
My ‘24 Pick: Stephanie White (Connecticut), 2024 Winner: Cheryl Reeve (MIN)
Because I have such high expectations for how former Las Vegas assistant Natalie Nakase will perform in Golden State, I think she should be the frontrunner for this award. The problem is a really good coaching job from Nakase probably represents the difference between the Valkyries finishing last and second or third-to-last in the standings come the end of the season. If history (across many sports) is any indicator, the coach of a tenth or eleventh-placed team is not winning this award—even if such a finish does represent considerable overachievement. So, with my preseason favorite likely out of the mix before the season even gets going, I’m looking to her former boss in Las Vegas as a strong candidate given the amount of change the roster has undergone this offseason.
Granted, Hammon probably suffers from an opposite issue to Nakase where many may think this roster is too good for its coach to be deserving of such an accolade, but I have serious questions about how all the puzzle pieces fit together which I anticipate the former Spurs assistant helps answer before all is said-and-done in 2025. Any team with Wilson enters each year with a justified “title or bust” mentality, but the reality is that home court in the first round of the playoffs is a very good goal for this group to target before the season. If they climb as high as the 2/3 seed (which I think they eventually will), it’ll be in part because Hammon figured out how to mesh Loyd and Wilson together in her offense while also smoothly integrating the new cast of characters on the Vegas bench into her rotations. If Hammon can’t do that (or, indeed, if the voters don’t see that as a huge success like I would), expect Stephanie White (the 2023 winner and a reasonable candidate a year ago) or Noelle Quinn (if Seattle can get home court) to be amongst the top candidates in an interesting year for this particular award.
Rookie of the Year: Paige Bueckers (Dallas)
My ‘24 Pick: Caitlin Clark (Indiana), 2024 Winner: Clark
After Clark looked a lock to take this award from day one a season ago, I’d expect it to become quite trendy to pick against Bueckers in 2025. The problem, for me, is that it’s difficult to make a compelling case for any other individual to put up the numbers to win this award. Dominique Malonga, the most obvious challenger given she followed just after Bueckers in the draft, is sharing a frontcourt with two all-WNBA caliber players—meaning she’s unlikely to put together numbers that can compete with Bueckers. Elsewhere, Washington’s trio of rookies will likely take votes (and counting numbers) from one another, Justė Jocytė and Ajša Sivka may not play in the WNBA in 2025 (though Jocytė could put up the numbers to push Bueckers if she does) and none of Aziaha James, Sarah Ashlee Barker, or Hailey Van Lith seem like realistic candidates to put together a strong candidacy even if they manage to carve out roles as rookies.
The two names I haven’t mentioned from the first round? Connecticut’s duo of Aneesah Morrow and Saniya Rivers. Given they’ll have so much responsibility (and playing time) in their first pro season, they strike me as the two players most likely to present a statistical case that’s compelling enough to really push Bueckers. And even then, the nature of Rivers’ game likely means that it’s Morrow who’s more likely to challenge for the award given her ability to stuff the stat sheet. In fact, Morrow could theoretically even challenge some of the rookie rebounding numbers (totals, not averages) that Angel Reese posted a year ago given (1) the addition of 4 games to the schedule and (2) the time Reese missed due to injury at the end of the 2024 season. If she does and Bueckers is just “average” in her rookie season, there could be a very real debate about this award come the end of the season. But even if Bueckers is “average,” her numbers and notoriety should be enough to follow Clark in winning this award with relative ease.
Sixth Player of the Year: Brionna Jones (Atlanta)
My ‘24 Pick: Sami Whitcomb (Seattle), 2024 Winner: Tiffany Hayes (Las Vegas)
A bit of guess work is required to determine who’ll even be eligible for this award, and I’m probably taking a big risk by choosing Jones—who could well end up as Atlanta’s starting power forward alongside fellow new arrival Brittney Griner. In any case, I think new head coach Karl Smesko’s offense calls for a bit more dynamism than two traditional bigs can provide, and the result could well be Jones morphing into a bench role. If she does, there’s little debate that Jones will be one of the most talented bench players in the league, and her career productivity—even after returning from the challenging injury she suffered in 2023—suggests she’ll put up numbers that make her a frontrunner for this award given the right amount of minutes.
If Jones struggles to find her footing in Atlanta (or winds up as a starter), this award can go any number of directions. One (or both) of Sophie Cunningham and Natasha Howard will come off of Indiana’s bench this season with both likely to provide hugely positive returns in their role (though the counting numbers may not be enough to push for this award). Alysha Clark, while presumably a starter in Seattle, would be a prime candidate if she comes off of Seattle’s bench. Meanwhile, the team Clark departed—which helped both her and Tiffany Hayes to this award in the last two years—could provide the platform needed to elevate 2023 candidate Dana Evans back into the mix for this award if the former Sky guard’s production can bounce back from a hit-and-miss 2024. Elsewhere, expect Natisha Hiedeman in Minnesota and Myisha Hines-Allen in Dallas to be two of the league’s most productive bench players even if they don’t put together the flashy scoring numbers that, unfortunately, often play such a big role in winning this award.
Defensive Player of the Year: A'ja Wilson (Las Vegas)
My ‘24 Pick: Wilson, 2024 Winner: Collier
If this award isn’t won by one of Wilson, Collier or Ezi Magbegor it would register as a huge surprise for me, and I have to think Wilson wins it if she’s not the MVP. Collier is a fantastic defender (and merited the honor a season ago), but the voters are likely to spread the love amongst the awards just as they did in ’23 (when Wilson lost MVP and won DPOY) and ’24 (when Wilson won MVP and didn’t get DPOY) again this season. Whether that’s the right way to do things is up for debate, but it seems to be the recent standard for the WNBA and most of the league’s top players (Clark being the most obvious exception) being defensive standouts opens the door for it to continue happening. And truthfully, it’s very hard to put anything between Collier, Wilson, Magbegor (and even Stewart) at the defensive end anyways. Each are consistently excellent and have the potential to give even the league’s toughest match-ups (including one another) difficulty on a regular basis. Wilson, for me, stands out as the best of the best simply because her defensive dominance is so emphatic—with her physical tools, reactions and timing truly placing her as the 1% of the 1% in this area.
Most Improved Player: Temi Fagbenle (Golden State)
My ‘24 Pick: Shakira Austin (Washington), 2024 Winner: DiJonai Carrington (CT)
While the NBA has very much turned this into the “high draft pick who broke out” award, it feels like the WNBA has done a slightly better job of keeping the award close to its roots with 6 of the last 8 winners of this award being non-lottery picks (though the 2022 and 2023 winners were top 2 picks). If that trend continues, look for Fagbenle—who seems committed to playing in the WNBA despite Great Britain’s qualification for EuroBasket—to be a strong candidate after an impressive (but injury hit) season with the Fever ended with her being chosen by Nakase and the Valkyries in the expansion draft last fall. Fagbenle’s game is strong enough at both ends to put together solid numbers in a handful of different statistical categories that voters love, and the visibility she’ll get on Golden State’s (relatively shallow) roster should continue the elevation she started a year ago before the aforementioned injury stunted her growth into the starting five.
If she doesn’t win the award, expect to see a handful of lottery picks from recent drafts as the shortlist favorites. Kamilla Cardoso, despite playing extremely well as a rookie in 2024, only averaged 9.8 PPG and 7.9 RPG—meaning there’s plenty of room for her statistical averages to take a huge leap. Tack on her ability to rack up assists and blocks, and she could see significant statistical growth in four different categories for a Chicago team with as much national attention as anyone. In a different fashion, NaLysaa Smith should benefit mightily from a fresh start in Dallas alongside last year’s winner of this award though I question whether her numbers will see huge movement—with relatively stagnant statistical production unlikely to get her in the mix. Lastly, Aaliyah Edward—while not a lottery pick in 2024—is another highly-touted prospect from a recent draft who could see jumps in her production this season with a strong debut (and, thus, positional competition) from Kiki Iriafen the only obvious blocker between Edwards and a huge breakout in her second season.
Great article