Angel Reese Out for Remaining 6 Games of Sky's Season with Wrist Injury
What Reese's absence will mean for Sunday's game against Dallas, the rest of the push towards the playoffs, the lottery, and 2025.
Angel Reese announced on Instagram Saturday evening that, after what sounds like a freak accident in Friday’s win over the Los Angeles Sparks, she’ll miss the remainder of the 2024 WNBA season. With just 6 games to go before the end of the regular season, it doesn’t look like it will be a long absence for Reese, but the loss of her impact will certainly be felt as Teresa Weatherspoon and company try to hand on to the final place in the WNBA playoffs. Let’s dive into how the Sky’s home game Sunday against Dallas will look different plus what it means for Chicago in a couple of other areas moving forward.
Rotational Changes on the Way for Dallas + Remaining 5
The Sky are back in action Sunday afternoon, less than 24 hours after they found out that Reese won’t return this season; so, it’s fair to say that Weatherspoon and her staff can’t be expected to overhaul their game plan overnight. And in truth, there’s nothing the coaching staff or anyone else on the roster can do to replace Reese’s impact on the glass anyways. Kamilla Cardoso has been very good when it comes to rebounding metrics (with numbers that might be even better if Reese wasn’t having the best rebounding season in WNBA history alongside her), and Isabelle Harrison offers value as well, but Reese set the records that she did this year for a reason. Against many other opponents, the Sky might be able to ‘get by’ on Sunday, but the Wings’ size means they’re the team best positioned to give the Sky trouble—both with and without Reese in the line-up. In any case, Chicago has no choice but to push forward, and Harrison will have to do her best to substitute for Reese’s impact in her own way.
Harrison’s a more refined offensive player and a capable defender, but she can’t match the rhythm Reese had at either end or the rebounding chops that the rookie offers. Brianna Turner, too, will be called on to play some important minutes—especially since Harrison has yet to see the playing time needed to build up the game shape required to play 32 minutes per game like Reese was doing. Turner is, of course, a very different player than both Harrison and Reese, but I think we’ve seen some flashes of how her game can compliment Cardoso, and their minutes together could be important ones the rest of the way. Even with Reese, Sunday was set to be one of the biggest tests left for the front court players in the last 6 games, and they can take some great confidence into the final 5 if they deliver a strong outing against the Wings’ imposing front line.
Lottery Permutations?
The Sky have been sliding towards the playoff bubble since the second half started, but Reese’s absence will certainly make it that much tougher to make the playoffs. That said, I don’t think missing the playoffs is the “sky is falling” scenario some are making it out to be as it relates to the lottery and the 2025 draft. As a reminder, all four teams that miss the playoffs will be in the lottery, and the W uses a two-year weighted lottery. So, here’s where the bottom 5 sit entering play on Sunday:
And here’s how the lottery weighting works:
The Sparks are going to have the worst record—meaning the overwhelming odds will be with them to grab the #1 pick. Beyond that, the odds are not too different—meaning the Sky won’t see too much of a swing in their odds of giving the Paige Bueckers pick away to Dallas no matter how they finish. And regardless of what happens with the lottery and a potential swap, Chicago missing the playoffs means they will have a better pick than if they make the playoffs. A berth in the playoffs would take away the perceived pain of “giving away” the 1st, 2nd or 3rd pick, but it’s a sunk cost fallacy as the pick Dallas swaps back to Chicago will always be better than the 5th pick anyways. No matter what the case is, the Sky (if they miss the playoffs) have so little control over what happens. If they lose out and keep the second-best odds, the math says they’re more likely to give the second pick to Dallas and end up with the third or fourth selection. If they win enough to wind up with the fourth-best odds, the math says they’re more likely to end up with the fourth pick. No matter which way the rest of the season goes, the odds are trending towards the Sky picking fourth in next April’s draft. Of course, the ping-pong balls also don’t care about math; so, the Sky can get a better pick with worse odds or vice versa for Dallas. Thus, let’s keep the overall scenario simple. Making the playoffs means not “giving away” a high pick, but it still means getting a worse pick overall. Chicago wants to make the playoffs for other (totally understandable) on court reasons, but there’s no real value to be gained by winning more or less games as it relates to their eventual lottery draw.
What about Reese’s future?
As far as a retrospective of Reese’s highly impressive rookie season goes, I’ll leave that for later in the offseason when I reprise my player-by-player season in review series. However, if we’re to look strictly at what this injury means for Reese’s future, I think it’s largely positives all around. Of course, being injured is not a positive, but the Sky (or Reese’s) swiftness in deciding to shut the rookie down suggests all parties are in the right mindset as it relates to managing the long-term potential the LSU grad has. Even if the Sky make the WNBA playoffs, beating the New York Liberty is a mighty task, and I don’t see too much point in asking a 22-year-old with a decade or more of professional basketball in front of her to play through an injury to try and clinch a playoff berth that would likely end in a sweep. Even worse, continuing to “play through” pain has a habit of creating longer-lasting issues, and it would be a shame to see the franchise risk any type of chronic issue by pushing their standout rookie past her limit in a season where their title window has yet to open.
Also positive was that Reese’s post on the injury already mentioned that she’s looking forward to participating in Unrivaled (Breanna Stewart and Napheesa Collier’s new off-season league)—suggesting the initial recovery timeline she’s gotten from the medical staff sees her returning before the league debuts in January 2025. It goes without saying that a return to action as soon as the first or second month of the new year would allow for a full ramp up to training camp, and the overall implication is that there should be no long-term impacts of any kind from what was ultimately a random injury picked up during a fall.
And how about the Sky’s future?
Lastly, the franchise’s perspective which, like that of the player, should be largely positive in my opinion. Reese arrived in the WNBA with a variety of possible outcomes, and the franchise can never fully know what she’ll be as a player after just 34 games of one year in the league. However, what can be said with some degree of certainty is that, at her absolute worst, Reese is a plus-starter in the WNBA. Because of the prestige that comes with the seventh pick in the NBA (where that’s still a lottery choice), it’s probably taken for granted by some that the seventh pick in the WNBA draft would be a player of that level, but history shows it’s a very good find for the Sky—even if the prospect in question arrived to the W with huge prestige as part of one of the most decorated draft classes in league history. As she continues to improve in the years ahead, it’s likely that 2024 will end up as the “worst” she plays in the W, and that level is already good enough to set rebounding records and contend for all-defense (though, I don’t see her getting the votes needed to make one of the teams this year).
Even more important, perhaps, is how the Sky saw Reese fit with their other first-round pick from a season ago. In the preseason, it looked like Elizabeth Williams, Turner and Harrison might provide enough veteran presence to keep the rookies’ minutes in check, and a rotation with less minutes for each of the two individuals inevitably meant less time for them to develop chemistry in their first year as teammates. With their rookies deals lasting through 2027, every year not used developing chemistry is a wasted year as you fail to exploit the advantages that come with some of your best players being on low salaries, but the injury to Williams (while unfortunate for the team’s overall play) opened the door for Cardoso to play big minutes alongside Reese—a day one starter over Harrison—when she returned from her own injury in June. Because they played so many minutes together, Chicago got pretty solid confirmation that the pair work as a duo (not just as individuals) and can feel very confident going to free agency with clear plans to build around their strengths and weaknesses moving forward. All in all, it might not go down as a perfect rookie season for Reese in Chicago given it was cut short, but it’s hard to think of too much more the front office could’ve asked for when they made the aggressive decision to jump up to seventh and select her in Aprils’ draft.