Bold Predictions for the 2024 Chicago Sky
With a new head coach and a new core, it's time to get out the crystal ball and predict some unexpected outcomes for the Sky's season.
At the end of 2023, I made four bold predictions for the Sky’s 2024 and, before the season even has the chance to tip-off, the jury is already out on a few. The Sky’s offseason overhaul means my prediction of a sixth-straight playoff trip looks far less likely while individual honors for Kahleah Copper and Sika Koné may come but with two completely different franchises. Dana Evans could still be given a new extension before the May 15th deadline, but the lack of movement just a few days before that deadline means I’m staring down an 0/4. But, shooters shoot; so, it’s time for 5 more predictions (this time about players who will be on the team’s opening day roster) before the season opener in Dallas on Wednesday night.
1) The Sky will have two top 10 three-point shooters.
For their cumulative careers, this Sky roster is shooting just 32.2% from long-range. If you take Marina Mabrey (who’s responsible for 42% of the group’s 641 makes) out of the equation, the rest of the group has shot 29.9% on 1,234 tries. For comparison, the worst team in the WNBA last season (Dallas) shot 31.7% while each of the other 11 franchises eclipsed the 32.2% team mark Chicago carries into the year. At 37.2% last season, Chicago was third best in the league—due in large part to three players landing amongst the top 14 (C. Williams, Copper, Mabrey) in three-point percentage league-wide. The departure of Williams (44.3%, 4th in W) and Copper (40.4%, 9th) has an obvious effect with the duo accounting for nearly a third of all three-point attempts by Sky players last year.Yet, the return of Mabrey (39%, 14th) and the addition of Brynna Maxwell (44%, 9th in NCAA) in the WNBA draft means the Sky have at least two players they can count on to hit threes this season.
Mabrey’s efficiency could take a slight dip given teams will be able to key in on her more heavily this season, but I expect Teresa Weatherspoon and her staff to recognize this challenge and install plenty of sets that get their best scorer a clean look off of screens—meaning similar efficiency isn’t out of the question either. For Maxwell, the jump to the WNBA figures to hurt her numbers, but 44% is a high perch to fall from. 40.2% was good enough for tenth in the W last season, and Maxwell’s track record as a shooter suggests clearing that mark should be feasible (if she meets the qualifying minimums after returning from injury)—especially since she won’t be a top of the scouting report name in the W. This prediction is more plausible when efficiency is the measurement, but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that Chicago gets there on volume either. Mabrey was 8th in the W in threes made (89) last season while Evans rounded out the top 30 (42) despite limited playing time. If Evans takes 50% more threes and improves her efficiency by around 5%, she too could make more than 2 threes a game and end up in the top 10. This may seem like wishful thinking, but each of Williams (63% more volume, 10% 3PT increase) and Copper (69%, 5%) experienced a similar leap last season.
2) Marina Mabrey will lead Chicago in assists
Given Mabrey was second (140) behind the since departed Williams (251) in this statistic a season ago, this probably doesn’t seem like a sizzling take. However, it was Evans (5.7) not Mabrey (5.1) that finished second on the team in assists per forty and inheriting Williams’ role as the starting point guard would presumably open the door for Evans to replace much of her production. Even back-up point guard Lindsay Allen (7.4 ast/40 in ‘23) could seemingly get in the mix if given enough time on court. Yet, I see Mabrey—who averaged 6.7 ast/40 overseas and finished third in the EuroLeague in total assists—leading the team because (1) she’ll have the ball in her hands just as much as Allen and Evans and (2) her ability to shoot the three will encourage aggressive defensive coverages that she can aim to pick apart.
From a usage perspective, Mabrey should initiate the Sky’s offense just as much as any other player. Depending on how the team’s line-up shakes out, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that Mabrey eventually starts games at point guard, but she’ll handle the ball often regardless of where she’s listed during pre-game intros. Her success in the pick-and-roll in Turkey, especially alongside Elizabeth Williams, underlines how cerebral she’s become as an offensive player, and her ability to patiently interpret those situations forces defenses into a lot of tough decisions as she can score and distribute effectively after turning the corner off of the screen. Because she’s also Chicago’s primary scoring and shooting threat, a lot of teams will think about sending doubles her way. Her patience, again, is an asset in these scenarios as she’s willing to hold onto the ball long enough to force the defense to fully commit. Once they have committed, her exceptional passing range allows her to hit teammates all over the court—meaning it doesn’t take an extra pass to get a good look. The result? Plenty of assists to Mabrey’s name in the box score.
3) Michaela Onyenwere will be the Sky's best net-rating (read: two-way) player.
If we toss out the small sample sizes of Ruthy Hebard (+22) and Rebekah Gardner (+13), the Sky’s leader in net-rating a season ago was Alanna Smith (+9) with all-defense front court partner Williams (+7) the only other player who managed a positive net-rating (the team’s overall net-rating was -2). While Onyenwere will be playing a different position than Smith, I expect she could fill a very similar role to the one the Aussie maintained a year ago. Depending on opposition, she may be tasked with guarding the opponent’s best player (something Copper did the majority of last season), but Onyenwere is also likely to be offered chances to wreak havoc with her versatility like Smith did a season ago. Because each of Williams’ potential front court partners this season is also a strong defender in the post, Onyenwere should have lots of opportunities to drop down from the perimeter for a quick turnover-inducing double team. Since she’s more than athletic enough to recover, Weatherspoon should be keen to let her gamble in those scenarios—with the Sky potentially getting some easy offense the other way as a result.
And speaking of offense, that too is half of the net rating equation. While she was amongst the Mercury’s leaders in defensive rating last season, Oneynwere’s offensive rating (89) left her eighth of Phoenix’s nine regulars. However, looks can be deceiving. I’ve already explored how Onyewnere wasn’t always put in a position to be successful last year, and her offensive performance overseas was critical to Ormanspor’s unexpected third-place finish in Turkey. A further uptick in her three-point shot would solidify her three-level scoring potential, but it’s already good enough (32% in ‘23) to make her a threat opponents must respect anywhere on the court. With reliable offensive output and the defensive tools needed to tie the Sky’s front and back court together, all looks set for Onyenwere to be a two-way force—something that net-rating (at least in theory) measures.
4) Chicago takes on a bad salary to get some draft capital.
I’ve mentioned this several times on Twitter, but it’s a possibility the Sky’s new front office really needs to keep in mind before the August 20th trade deadline. Salary dumps have become commonplace in the NBA, but a variety of factors (short season + contracts, little roster + cap flexibility) mean this is one trend that hasn’t permeated the W just yet. However, I’d argue there’s never been a better time or situation than the one Sky are in right now. They want picks to add around Reese and Cardoso and have ample cap space and flexibility to take on salary. Meanwhile, a lot of teams around the league are pushing to contend but may still feel they’re just shy of Vegas’ incredibly high standard.
For example (and I can’t stress how unrealistic the particulars of this are), the Storm have a veteran core and face the potential of Nneka Ogwumike leaving in free agency again after this season. Perhaps, they’re behind where they expect to be and decide to make a big swing. They want to turn reserve center Mercedes Russell ($160k) into Connecticut’s Brionna Jones ($212k) but can’t do so because they’re capped out. The Sky send Seattle Lindsay Allen ($90k) for a future first and Sami Whitcomb ($140k), and the Storm can make their trade. Again, this deal makes next to no sense (especially for the Sun), but it at least encapsulates the type of position a team calling Chicago to make this type of deal would be in. Because a deal like this coming together is so challenging with the WNBA’s cap rules, this quantifies as a bold prediction, but there would be nothing bold about the Sky doing this type of deal if the opportunity arises.
5) The Sky have a top-six defense.
Finishing in the top-half of the league in any stat may not seem like anything to write home about but building a strong defensive foundation would be a great outcome for a defense-first head coach’s debut season. Of course, there’s also a lot of different metrics you can use to quantity what a ‘top-six’ defense is. Last year, the Sky were top-6 in points allowed (83.4 per game, 6th), narrowly missed that mark in defensive rating (103.4, 7th) and fell woefully short in field goal percentage allowed (45.1%, 11th). The Sky also struggled on the glass (69.2% DRB, 11th) which heavily contributed to the national perception that Chicago were a bad defensive team. Yet, last season’s team, led by Copper (the league’s premier perimeter defender), had plenty of stretches where its defense did a lot of the heavy lifting for its offensive struggles.
To make a long story short, there’s no perfect metric to quantify just how good a defense is. Yet, I still think Chicago can expect improvement in many of these numbers in 2024—with a trend towards the top half in all four. Several of the Sky’s offseason additions have two-way potential, but each of Onyenwere, Reese, Cardoso and Brianna Turner can be considered defense-first players. Adding them to the Sky’s defense which already includes elite (Evans + Williams) and underrated (Mabrey) options should set the floor reasonably high. The interior defense should be amongst the league’s best—causing opponents to take more difficult shots which will, more often than not, hurt their other offensive metrics as well. Several of the new faces, Reese especially, are also strong on the glass meaning Chicago should be a top rebounding team—not a bottom one. If the Sky are more regularly closing out possessions with a board, teams don’t get easy put-back looks at the basket and score less second-chance points. Opponent’s field goal percentage and scoring numbers all likely dip as a result. The Sky may not wind up as a top-six team in all of these metrics, but the concerted effort they made to address their defensive weaknesses (even while rebuilding) should trigger an upward move in each.