Bold Predictions for the 2025 Chicago Sky
With a new head coach and a growing young core, it's time to get out the crystal ball and predict some unexpected outcomes for the Sky's season.
At the end of 2024, I made five bold predictions for the Sky’s 2025 and, before the season even has the chance to tip-off, two (related to the #3 pick in the draft and the future of since traded guard Lindsay Allen) have already proven incorrect. The other three are still alive and well (check them out here), but the start of the new season means it’s time to throw out a few more predictions—with varying degrees of boldness attached to each.
1. Cardoso has a top-5 assisting season for a player 6’5”+.
To date, only four players 6’5” or taller have ever hit 100 assists across a WNBA season—with three of those four coming a season ago.
And make no mistake, a part of the prediction here certainly has to do with the number of games played (expect one of Boston or Jones to break this record again with 44 games on the 2025 schedule), but the skills Cardoso showcased as a passer a season ago also factor heavily into the equation. Whether offloading the ball to Angel Reese around the basket, delivering a kick-out to the perimeter after being doubled or working in focused sets that saw her catch the basketball closer to the perimeter, Cardoso consistently demonstrated an ability to make the right read and deliver a pass on time and on target during her rookie season. Improved point guard play (no disrespect to Lindsay Allen who formed a strong P-n-R combo with Cardoso last season) and a more modern offensive approach should only help to further the opportunities for the Brazilian to touch the ball and, inevitably, pile up more assists in her sophomore season.
At the same time, I also anticipate steady increases in Cardoso’s scoring and efficiency numbers this season for the reasons above and a handful of others (the main one being natural development and progression as a player). The more points she scores, and the more efficiently she does so, the more defenses will continue to key in on her. Given she’s already such a prime target for doubles at 6’7”, any marginal uptick in efficiency will make her a candidate to see two bodies against the majority of the league, and those extra doubles create more opportunities to generate high quality looks for teammates with her passing. In the end, I see that translating to Cardoso averaging somewhere in the neighborhood of 2.5 assists per game (she averaged 1.7 as a rookie). Given full health, that would equate to 110 assists for the season—good for third on the pre-season list (and, likely, fifth after the season assuming Boston and Jones replicate their production and clear 130 each).
2. Courtney Vandersloot finishes top 2 in assists.
Given her history (8 top 2 finishes in the last 11 years), this doesn’t qualify as the boldest prediction for Vandersloot, but it would still be an impressive return to form for a 36-year-old who finished 13th in the league in both total and per game assists in 2024. Given the high-minute, starting role she came to Chicago to get and the quality of opportunities she’s already creating in the preseason for Reese and Cardoso inside, the numbers should pile up quickly in 2025, and the most likely person to come between Vandersloot and her 8th assists title, to me, is Caitlin Clark (who led the league in both assists total [337] and per game [8.4] as a rookie).
If Vandersloot can perform at that level, it won’t just help the Sky bigs perform better; it’ll create some intriguing questions about her future heading into free agency next winter. Because while Vandersloot may have come to Chicago for a chance to start and return to an organization where she had so much success, the hefty pay day the Sky (with a few key rookie contracts) were able to offer probably made the decision a bit more straightforward. And while Reese and Cardoso will still be on rookie deals next season and Chicago may have a bit more flexibility as a result, the vast majority of the league hitting free agency next winter means pricey contracts for players who, by almost any metric, are past their prime years will be harder to come by.
Yet, if Vandersloot puts up strong numbers and helps steer a functional offense, she’ll have every reason to believe she’s in line for a similar role (and pay) for at least one more season. And if that functional offense has contributed to the Sky pushing for a spot in the 2025 playoffs, the discussion becomes even more complicated for Chicago’s front office as the loss of their floor general could lead to a step back in offensive productivity and organization. At that point, GM Jeff Pagliocca and Marsh would be left with a very difficult decision that forces them to balance maximizing the team’s 2026 performance with the competing goal of investing in players who will be more likely long-term contributors.
3. Maddy Westbeld positions herself as a part of Chicago’s long-term core.
This one is difficult to quantify statistically but making the Sky’s roster out of training camp would serve as a fantastic early indicator that Westbeld could be here to stay in Chicago. For second round draft picks in the WNBA, making that initial roster is no small feat, but the caliber of prospect Westbeld was before an injury hit final season at Notre Dame and the unique profile she provides as a complement to the Sky’s young front court make her a really compelling option to be a long-term support piece. Because while Cardoso and Reese offer the Sky’s front office and coaching staff just about everything they could want for the next decade, it’s no secret that neither is a shooter at this point in their career. Marsh, of course, will be working on changing that over the course of the next few years, but the addition of Westbeld could be a shot in the arm spacing wise which allows the Sky to put out some extremely dynamic line-ups when one of Reese or Cardoso goes to the bench.
At 6’3” with a decent blend of strength and speed, Westbeld also has enough of the defensive tools needed to handle herself in match-ups with opposing fours and many fives—meaning she could be a one player solution to two spots in Chicago’s depth chart over the next couple of seasons. Even if her frame makes her a more natural fit at the four (the league’s most physically imposing centers will be a handful even at 6’3”), it’s reasonable to think that, in the 10-15 minutes Cardoso sits in the average game, Reese—a defender fit for almost any physical challenge—slides to the 5 with Westbeld helping complement her at both ends of the floor. Given the price of rookie contracts, the cost of acquiring a big who can defend and shoot, and the difficulty in finding a player with those skills who’s willing to accept a bench role, there’s a lot of factors that point towards Westbeld sticking in Chicago long-term if she can showcase the positive skills from her draft profile. Again, she’s a player to exercise caution on because of the difficult road second-round picks face (and the drop off in 24-25 production even with the injury), but watch for Westbeld to serve an important role on the 2025 team and position herself to continue in a slightly expanded version of that role in 2026 and beyond.
4. The Sky have a top 3 rated defense.
With so little change to their rotational make-up, Minnesota (2nd in ’24) feels like a safe bet to surpass the Sun as the best rated defense in the WNBA this season, but the race for the other podium spots feels relatively open. Seattle, New York and Las Vegas (3rd-5th) all return strong enough groups to finish near the top of the table once again, but the quality of defensive talent available to the Sky this season should give them a chance to break up that group. In addition to bringing back the strong defensive nucleus of Reese, Cardoso and Michaela Onyenwere, Pagliocca added Ariel Atkins (a five-time all-defense selection) and Rebecca Allen (historically, an analytically strong and versatile defender) to a group that also returns Elizabeth Williams (a 2023 all-defense selection) from injury.
In short, the Sky’s primary rotation of ~8 veterans (the six above plus Vandersloot and Kia Nurse) is stacked full of players who can hang their hat at the defensive end regardless of their offensive rhythm night-to-night. Crucially, this group also contains a number of versatile defenders—especially at the forward position. In the pre-draft process, Reese was seen as a player who had great potential to defend at the perimeter, and that skill transitioned even more seamlessly to the pro game than anyone could have reasonably anticipated. At the same time, Onyenwere and Allen—the Sky’s primary small forwards (on paper)—are strong enough to handle themselves in the post when those switches occur forward-to-forward with Cardoso or Williams looming as a more traditional shot-blocker at the rim. At the start of the preseason, Kia Nurse has actually been the starter at small forward, meaning there’s even more opportunity for Onyenwere and, especially, Allen to get involved at the four.
It remains to be seen what a line-up of this composition would look like at the offensive end, but there’s also a possibility that—for brief periods of games—Marsh could even run a group that slides the laterally sound Onyenwere to the 2 with Allen, Reese and Cardoso creating a nucleus of four players that’s capable of completely shutting off the opposition’s water. The only real question I see for this defense is how reliable the guard group around Atkins will be and whether, burdened by a heavy offensive workload, Atkins could run low on energy at the defensive end like Chennedy Carter often seemed to do a season ago.