Can the Sky Afford to Re-Sign Alanna Smith?
It’s complicated, but I unpack the road map to an extension for the Aussie MIP candidate.
From her perspective, Alanna Smith couldn’t be due for a new contract at a better time after last season’s breakout. The Australian forward achieved a new career best in basically every statistical category the WNBA tracks, and finished third in voting for the Most Improved Player award. Consequently, she now enters free agency with considerably more leverage than last season when, by her own admission, she considered skipping the WNBA season all-together in favor of focusing her efforts elsewhere. For Chicago, Smith represented an in-season gift but is now something of an offseason curse. With long-term absentee Isabelle Harrison ready to make her Sky debut in 2024, Jeff Pagliocca and the new front office need to decide if they’re comfortable paying two power forwards starting money when only one can start in the front court alongside Elizabeth Williams.
Elsewhere, numerous teams — especially the Phoenix Mercury, where Lan played her first three seasons in the W — are reportedly exploring Smith as an option in free agency. Given the additional cap space Phoenix will have after the departure of Skylar Diggins-Smith (all cap data from Her Hoop Stats), it’s plausible to think that their new front office led by Nick U’Ren could be interested in throwing a little extra money Smith’s way to pair her with BG and DT in the starting five. In the event Phoenix makes a serious push and Alanna’s number one priority is maximizing her contract’s value, it’s hard to imagine Smith playing anywhere else next season. However, it’s possible that another team — the Sky included — could sell Smith on some combination of enhanced role or additional years added to the end of the contract and convince her to sign for a lower annual salary.
But what would a deal have to look like in order for Smith to return to the Windy City? Let’s explore the team’s current cap situation and the options it gives Pagliocca.
Players Contracted to Chicago for 2024
Kahleah Copper ($241,984), Marina Mabrey ($208,000), Isabelle Harrison ($160,000), Elizabeth Williams ($135,000), Dana Evans ($78,469), Li Yueru ($64,767), Sika Koné ($63,532)
With these seven players, the Sky have already committed $951,752 of their 2024 cap to contracts. Both Koné and Yueru could be cut with no cap penalty, but their deals are at (or near) the league minimum— meaning the Sky will end up contributing a similar amount of money to those roster spots regardless of who fills them. With 5 players needed to fill the 12 roster slots, the Sky have $511,448 in free cap.
Thus, the Sky, at this point in time and with no consideration for the remainder of the roster, are free to sign Smith to any deal of their choosing. Their current cap space allows them to core her or sign her to any other contract up to — and including — the max ($208k) and super max ($241k). Making such a move, however, would leave the Sky in a very compromised position. With any type of max deal added to next season’s payroll, the Sky would likely have to let both Courtney Williams and Rebekah Gardner walk for free and resort to filling the roster with numerous players on minimum deals. That said, I don’t think Smith’s 2023 play — no matter how great — has warranted this type of deal anyways. The only realistic scenario where Lan ends up playing on a max deal next season is if the Sky decide to core her.
Realistically speaking, the Sky will likely prioritize the signings of Gardner and Williams (or another top end point guard) before that of Smith — given that Harrison is already under contract at the same position. With Gardner ($100k) and Williams ($160k) returning on similarly priced deals to the ones they played under a season ago, the Sky would be left with around $120,000 of cap space after filling their other two roster spots with minimum deals. It’s not impossible that Smith would sign a deal at that number — especially given it would represent a 20% raise on her 2023 salary — but she’s likely to target (and be offered — hello again Phoenix) a far more lucrative number. In other words, the Sky will need to adjust their plans if they want to retain Smith.
Gardner, it would seem, is not likely to be the player who makes the difference. She’s a reserved player — meaning the Sky have exclusive negotiation rights — but she was also an extremely important part of the team’s successes in their 2022 title defense. Last season’s injury-riddled season may have cost her the chance to earn a significant raise, but it’s difficult to imagine he returning for anything considerably less than the six-figure deal she was on a season ago. If we assume she returns at that number, the Sky would have $411k of free cap left to sign four players. For simplicity, let’s say the Sky sign their #13 pick (~$67k) and add another young, minimum player (~$64k) to fill out the remainder of their bench.
Those moves would leave the Sky with $280,000 of cap space to fill two key roles: starting at the one (or backing-up Dana) and pushing Harrison for minutes at the four.
In the context of the hypothetical roster I’ve constructed, the performance of those two players will likely tell you a lot about how the Sky, as a whole, perform in 2024. With two young bigs (Koné and Yueru), two unknowns (the ‘minimum’ contracts) and Gardner filling out the bench, Pagliocca and Spoon have to be absolutely certain that the two players they spend that money on will be, at absolute worst, high-level contributors off the bench. Given how they performed last season, Smith and Williams should easily be able to fill those roles, but the personal discussions over role and salary are quite complicated. From my perspective, the Sky’s path to re-signing both players almost entirely revolves around Williams’ financial flexibility as the front office has fewer options with Alanna.
To illustrate, a one year deal would give Smith the flexibility to get another raise next season — a definite plus for her — but she’s likely to want a higher 2024 salary to compensate for the risk of injury, poor performance or limited role she would incur. The higher her number, the less the Sky can afford to pay Williams or another point guard — reducing the overall quality of next season’s squad.
With a longer deal and more long-term financial security, Smith may be willing to take a slightly lower annual salary, but she’ll surely want assurances about her role before signing a multi-year deal. It’s hard to imagine her committing to a bench role for multiple years— meaning the Sky would have to open themselves up to making Isabelle Harrison a lame duck by committing to another PF long-term. Granted, it’s not impossible for the two to co-exist, but Harrison would be understandably wary given how her role diminished before leaving Dallas. If she’s entering the season with that in mind, I don’t anticipate Harrison playing her best. Even if the former Vol does perform well in 2024, the Sky would then be back in the exact same position twelve months from now with Alanna on a high-priced deal long-term and Harrison due for a similarly-priced extension. This can work, but there are also numerous ways it backfires for the Sky.
All that considered, I think the Sky’s best option for signing Smith is giving her an aggressive one year offer and trying to persuade Williams to take a deal at a lower number. By doing so, both Smith and Harrison have the potential to stake their claim to the starting role for 2024 and beyond while the Sky would have the option to pick-and-choose who they aim to re-sign next winter. For Smith, a one-year deal in the region of $150-160k gives her the considerable raise her 2023 play earned her and leaves the door ajar for her to get an even bigger bump from Chicago or someone else long term next winter. Even if someone is willing to offer Smith a multi-year deal in that range (or higher) this offseason, the Sky can tout the additional cap space they’ll have in 2025 as a reason to stick around.
The question, then, is whether Williams is open to taking a lower number to make all the pieces fit. For a couple of reasons, I think this is possible. First and foremost, Williams has been open about her interest in returning to Chicago and has shown clear enthusiasm on social media about Spoon’s hire. Second, Williams took less money than she probably could’ve gotten as recently as 2022 (albeit under unique circumstances) to play alongside old teammates and contend for a championship. Courtney seemed to mesh with last season’s group and, though the Sky aren’t 2024’s top contenders, they certainly have a shot if Smith and Williams both return. Williams’ positional versatility also allows the Sky to comfortably throw a multi-year deal her way if the added financial security (or continuity in one city) are of extra appeal. Depending on how open she is to a somewhat variable role as Dana develops into a starter, I’d argue the Sky should at least try to make Courtney’s extension a multi-year one regardless of what happens with Smith.