Is It Time for the Sky to Panic? (spoiler alert: not yet)

With Courtney & Alanna gone and--seemingly--no one else on the way, free agency already seems to be reaching the 'now what' stage.

Free agency opens today, but the mood in Chicago already seems to be as dreary as the mid-winter weather with the Sky seemingly striking out on almost every major target already. Courtney Williams and Alanna Smith have agreed to deals with Minnesota, Natasha Cloud seems close to Phoenix and the writing on the wall suggests that Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith will not be joining the Sky. Whether they wind up paired in Seattle (if they don’t, Talisa Rhea has made a huge over estimation in trading the #4 pick) remains to be seen, but it certainly doesn’t seem that either is trending towards a deal with Chicago at this juncture.

With various other free agents—many of which were only pipe dreams to sign with Chicago anyways—like Jonquel Jones and Kiah Stokes also off the market, the list of players who could still join and move the needle is down to a select list of names. Candace Parker, for instance, would pop but seems unlikely to return while Rebecca Allen is a nice piece of a championship rotation but would seem somewhat out of place with the Sky’s current standing in the WNBA hierarchy. Beyond (rashly) giving up assets to go after a cored player like Elena Delle Donne, the Sky are probably left to make the most of the roster they have in 2024 and add rotational depth as the market allows.

And while all of this certainly serves as a considerable dent to the Sky’s title hopes in the 2024 season, I don’t think it’s time to panic just yet. And here’s why:

The Sky are in year one of a new era with both a new coach and a new general manager.

While the entire franchise and the majority of the fanbase is heavily onboard with Spoon and her credentials are unquestioned, she has not been the head coach of a basketball team since 2014. That’s not to say that—with a high-powered roster of stars like Skylar, Nneka and Kah—Spoon couldn’t have pushed for a title in her first year back on the bench. Instead, it’s to say that a solid roster with some room for growth at a couple of key positions and plenty of flexibility in free agency next offseason isn’t the worst thing either during her process of reacclimatizing to a head gig. In 2024, the Sky will still have a franchise player in Kahleah Copper and a couple of other players (Marina Mabrey and Dana Evans) who have obvious potential to be franchise cornerstones on the roster. Sika Koné and the 13th pick in April’s stacked draft are also blue-chip assets that Spoon can nurture over the course of the season.

Even a free agency period that looks like it could end up pretty bare doesn’t necessarily spell the end of the Sky’s chances to reach the playoffs in 2024. After all, at the start of free agency, my big questions for the Sky were the point guard position, the front court mix and the overall rotation. At this point, those three questions are still the most prevalent ones for Jeff Pagliocca, but solutions were always available in house. Despite being far less ‘box office’, those solutions still form the framework for a competitive team.

At the point guard position, the Sky’s inevitable transition to Evans as the team’s starter will simply be brought forward a year or two. With the former Louisville guard eligible for an extension through May 15th, now seems like a great time for both parties to find something that makes everyone happy and ensures Evans’ long term future is with the Sky. I’ve seen a lot of questions raised about Dana’s efficiency, but the practicalities of her role (both overseas and with the Sky’s second unit) have severely impacted her shot selection. If she plays 75% of her minutes with Marina and Kah (as opposed to something closer to 25% last year), she should have more opportunities to create and feel less pressure to take low-percentage looks as a result. Time will tell, but it’s not a huge concern for me until I see her produce similarly ‘meh’ efficiency (29.4% 3PT in ‘23) as a part of the starting group. As a playmaker, Evans has improved tremendously over the last 18 months, and her credentials as a defender are unquestioned.

Down low, the Sky would’ve loved to keep Alanna Smith for the versatility she offers, but Isabelle Harrison will feel like a new addition after missing all of last season. While Smith’s fantastic 2023 has inadvertently soured some fans on Harrison’s ability to contribute, multi-year metrics show she can deliver similar (if not slightly better) productivity as a rebounder while her top scoring seasons are also similar to that which Smith delivered last season. Realistically, Harrison won’t offer the same productivity as a defender (career best 1.94 stocks per game versus 2.61 by Smith last season) nor as a three-point shooter that the Aussie did, but Smith’s campaign serves as a perfect reminder that history is not always reflective of a player’s potential—especially when given an expanded role.

All those positives considered (and I do think Harrison probably has her best year as a professional in 2024), spacing will be a concern. Assuming Harrison is in fact the starter (I see no viable options in FA unless something changes with Nia Coffey), Spoon has to start thinking about how she’ll game plan around a roster with four bigs (Harrison, Koné, Elizabeth Williams and Li Yueru) that do the vast majority of their damage inside ten feet. In the modern game, we’re conditioned to think this is a death sentence, but there’s plenty of ways for the Sky to get around the issues this type of front court creates.

Koné, for one, has shown a decent ability to score off the dribble in Spain. She’s still going to be viewed as a developmental piece at the WNBA level, but I see her role expanding as the year goes on. If the Sky can station her in the corner from time to time, that forces defenses to adjust at least a little to respect her ability to drive and finish—especially if she can also hit mid-range shots at a decent clip like she’s done overseas. Koné, an exceptional rebounder, does well crashing from the perimeter and grabbing boards without fouling—making her a prime candidate to help add space (even if she’s not a deep threat yet) without making sacrifices in other areas.

Morgan Bertsch, who is a restricted player I expect to return, showed that she can shoot (44% on 1.3 threes per game) and, thus, space the floor last season. In Spain, she’s continued to shoot well (37%, 2.1) and also shined when acting as a playmaker on the perimeter. If she plays something akin to the 14 minutes per game she did last season, Bertsch will offer the Sky a bit of respite from their otherwise long-ball averse post players. It’s important to remember that some match-ups will actually allow the Sky to create advantages with their post-heavy bigs. Thus, Bertsch’s ability to consistently perform amidst changing roles will be valuable when Spoon does need to lean on her more heavily. Notably, she could also end up as the Sky’s second best big at the defensive end with some (not all) of her traits giving her a profile similar to Smith—especially as a help defender.

As for the rotation, this is likely where Pagliocca and Weatherspoon have the most work to do. The return of Rebekah Gardner and Robyn Parks—increasingly likely given their restricted status and the team’s ample cap space—will add a solid spark (and a bit of defensive fortitude) to Chicago’s bench and some combo of Bertsch, Koné and Yueru gives the Sky a competent (though less defensively dependable) group of bigs. However, the Sky would still seemingly need a good amount of production from the ‘last two’ players on the roster (that is if all three restricted players return and Yueru plays the W season).

One, presumably, would be the Sky’s back-up point guard—a role that the Sky would preferably fill with a veteran to give Spoon a reliable fall back as Dana expands her role. Looking at the market, Danielle Robinson is an oft-underrated name who could seemingly make a big impact—though she may be unwilling (understandably) to come off of the bench. Elsewhere, the market of true vets is somewhat slim—though one of Odyssey Sims or Diamond DeShields could be intriguing as they’re likely competing for the same minutes in the Wings’ bench unit if they return to Dallas. Alternatively, the Sky could go for a less established option by adding a player who has excelled overseas—Parks’ point guard in Italy Arella Guirantes comes to mind—or hope a talented lead ball handler (Deja Kelly of UNC for instance) slides to #13 in the draft.

The final roster spot, then, would need to go to someone who can help across the board. If a veteran guard is signed, this roster spot will probably go to the 13th pick—though I imagine the pick would then be used on the best player available—not necessarily the most versatile. It’s pointless to speculate who will declare, and thus, be available, but I’ve seen Angel Reese occasionally mocked outside the top 10. That won’t happen, but it’s indicative of just how talented this draft class could be. For versatility, Parks and Gardner (plus Copper as a starter) can defend the 2-4 reliably, but I still think Spoon would want to have one more who can defend several positions given none of the five bigs I’ve named to this point are known for their work on the perimeter. Taylor Soule—who I’ve championed quite a bit—is worth remembering and possesses enough strength to defend bigger than her 5’11” frame. At 31% from three in Italy, it’s also possible she could occasionally help as a stretch 4 like Bertsch. I get the feeling it is unlikely Soule returns, but a similar player profile would effectively meet a number of the Sky’s remaining needs.

All that said, I would be remiss if I didn’t say that one big twist in someone’s free agency tale could still change the entire dialogue around the Sky’s (thus far) limited free agency haul. If Ogwumike, for instance, joins the Liberty, Diggins-Smith might suddenly forego plans for a superstar team up in Seattle. Similarly, the Sky could still act aggressively and pursue the cored player I mentioned above. Delle Donne, if acquired, would quickly remedy the Sky’s spacing concerns—albeit at the cost of trade compensation (what would Chicago even offer?) and a high-priced contract with loads of injury history. Another scenario could see the Sky help facilitate a move elsewhere for Delle Donne (or another star like Jordin Canada) by taking on a salary that another team can no longer stomach. If such a move nets the Sky future draft capital or other assets who can help, we could later thank Pagliocca and Spoon for such foresight.

However, even if the Sky only make additions around the edges of the roster in the coming days, there’s still a reasonable path to push for the playoffs—just like the team (unexpectedly) did a season ago. Doing so in the franchise’s current context, with a new general manager and coach, would give the Sky a far more promising outlook for next winter’s free agency period when a number of big names like Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas are scheduled to be available.