EuroLeague Women Final 4 Preview
Mabrey + Mersin look to avenge 2023 losses to Fenerbahçe to face winner of Praha-Villeneuve-d'Ascq rematch in continental final.
By allowing WNBA stars to get high-level offseason work and simultaneously showcasing the underrated talents of the European game, EuroLeague Women continues to reinforce it’s place as the premier ‘winter’ competition for women’s basketball. Last season’s champions Fenerbahçe perfectly showcased the blend of the two basketball cultures with European standout Emma Meesseman (who, of course, has had plenty of WNBA success as well) pairing with the eventual ‘23 WNBA MVP Breanna Stewart to lift the crown. Stewart doesn’t return this time around, but plenty of last season’s protagonists—including Marina Mabrey (who returns with a different team) and Meesseman—back for another shot at the top title in the European game. Let’s dive into a preview of the semifinals to see if Fener will reign again or if someone can spoil their repeat bid.
Mersin vs. Fenerbahçe
Friday, April 12 @ 11:00 AM CT — Watch Live on YouTube
Meet the Teams
I hate to play the ‘this team is unbeatable’ card because it so often winds up untrue (especially in a single-elimination format), but Fenerbahçe certainly look to be the exception. Aside from A’ja Wilson, Meesseman is probably the world’s best player (recent injury aside), and the roster constructed around her has more than enough of everything else to allow this side to sustain the rough patches all teams inevitably endure. Outside, the team has Kayla McBride who, in case you have forgotten her WNBA credentials, leads the EuroLeague in threes made per game (3.5) and ranks fifth in three-point percentage (44.4%). Inside, Meesseman is supported by two more Lynx players: Napheesa Collier (18 PPG in 7 EL games) and Nikolina Milić (10 p in just 19 MPG). Meanwhile, Yvonne Anderson adds a dash of connectivity to their efforts with her ability to get to the rim (as does Meesseman with her own work off the dribble) while Istanbul native Sevgi Uzun has been exceptional in a complementary role as a creator for others (second in EL in assists per 40). Fener are without the services of Natasha Howard because of the competition’s roster restrictions, but the single-game format of the last four means that shouldn’t be a huge concern. In their two game sweep of Avenida in the quarters, Fener—without Meesseman—leaned heavily on McBride (76/80 mins) Anderson (73/80), Milić (65) and Collier (63). Expect them to lean heavily on those four players again with Meesseman, Uzun and Alperi Onar (another domestic guard) the only other players likely to crack the rotation.
Mersin, losing finalists against Fener a season ago, are back but with a very different roster. Domestic players Asena Yalçın (3 MPG in QF), Sinem Ataş (7) and Quanitra Hollingsworth (9)—a naturalized Turk—are back but in limited roles while Elizabeth Williams, a key protagonist in last year’s final, is with the club but not part of the EuroLeague squad after the addition of Kahleah Copper left Mersin short on international roster slots. Copper—a losing semifinalist with Avenida in 2022—is joined by former Sky teammate Mabrey—who lost to Fener in last year’s semifinals with Italian side Schio. Stephanie Mavunga (13 p, 7 r per) and María Araújo (5 p, 6 r) will provide most of the team’s interior presence while Olivia Époupa (who played with Fener early last season) is the team’s primary point of attack defender on the perimeter. Beyond those 5, Mersin have used a variety of players including the three returnees plus Virag Kiss, Laura Cornelius, Melis Gülcan and Derin Yaya. Each has added valuable contributions at times this season, but I’m not sure coach Ceyhun Yıldızoğlu has a great feel on which player will add what they need on any given night. Expect Mersin—like Fener—to rely heavily on their starting 5 and only look to the bench in spurts. Kiss is probably the most talented player on the bench, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a guard (likely Cornelius or Ataş) leaned on as the 6th player—with Copper taking on the Collier match-up in those minutes.
How They Match-up + My Prediction
The teams have met five previous times across the Turkish Cup, KBSL regular season and KBSL Finals (with Game 3 of that series set for 4/17). However, differences in personnel between each of those games and this one (Williams, for instance, has played 4 of the 5 previous meetings and won’t play here) make it difficult to learn anything conclusive ahead of this meeting. Any team led by Kahleah Copper will naturally be drawn towards a defensive identity, but I actually think Mersin’s best chance to win this game might be a high scoring shootout. If the game is slow and methodical in the half-court, Fener’s defense has additional opportunities to key in on Mersin’s two elite scorers on the perimeter while their offense—with Meesseman as the fulcrum—will slowly pick apart even the strongest of defensive coverages. And while Mavunga is a capable defender, I still think the Mersin front court will struggle to slow down Fener’s duo in the half court—especially because both Meesseman and Collier are so versatile and capable of stepping out to the perimeter to hit shots.
If the game is played at a higher tempo, Fenerbahçe still have lots of ways to hurt Mersin, but Copper and Mabrey have a little more opportunity to create space for their offensive games to shine. In the Turkish league, Mersin’s best performances with Copper have, unsurprisingly, come when they’ve forced a lot of turnovers and gotten plenty of early offense. Both Mabrey and Copper have also historically shown a great ability to hit threes on the break—another trend that would bode well for a Mersin victory. No matter what the tempo looks like, expect the ‘fourth’ stars on each team to play a big role in deciding the outcome. Araújo, back after a long spell out with injury, has started to knock down the three ball with some regularity, and that skill opens the floor up for Copper and Mabrey to get to the basket—a potential game changer in the half court. In the opening two games of the KBSL Finals, Mersin’s most successful stretches have involved heavy doses of Copper going downhill. On the other side, Anderson was decisive in the quarterfinals (18.5 PPG on 82% FG) and has shown a knack for scoring baskets that kill the opposition’s runs this season.
I expect Mabrey and Copper to have sensational games, but it’s still so hard to slow down this Fener team. Final Score Prediction: Fener 82, Mersin 74
Praha vs. Villeneuve-d'Ascq
Friday, April 12 @ 8:00 AM CT — Watch Live on YouTube
Meet the Teams
In terms of balance, consistency and continuity, Praha certainly feel the team in these semi-finals most equipped to knock off Fenerbahçe. Coaching figures to be an x-factor for Praha who, in Natália Hejková, have one of the best coaches in Europe—who’s won the tournament with the club before (2015) and reached 5 other final fours in her decade-plus stint in charge. This year’s team is far more dependent on the collective than any one individual, but it’s hard to look past Ezi Magbegor if we’re seeking to highlight stand alone talents. She leads the league in blocks and ranks third in rebounds—all while finishing as a top-ten scorer (13.6 PPG) and shooting the three-ball at a very efficient clip (38.2%). To again underline the team’s balance, Nyara Sabally—like Magbegor—features amongst the league’s best in points (14th), rebounds (13th) and blocks (8th) as well while the team leads the EuroLeague in rebounding and blocks. On offense, Praha are most dominant when they consistently get downhill—with Maite Cazorla (9 p, 5 a per) and Maria Conde (10 p, 3 a) both supplementing their dominant front court with a nice blend of scoring and creativity. Praha swing hot and cold from deep, but Veronika Voráčková is their best and most consistent shooter (39% 3PT).
Villeneuve-d'Ascq are somewhat of a surprise package—making the semi-finals for the first time and becoming the first French side to reach the last four since Bourges made consecutive trips in 2013 and 2014. While he lacks Hejková’s tenure, coach Rachid Meziane is no slouch either. In addition to helping Villeneuve rise up the European ranks since taking over in 2018, Meziane also won EuroBasket last summer with Meesseman and Belgium. And while he can’t call on anyone quite so dominant here, Kennedy Burke has been crucial for her side this season. The former Fever wing, who’s expected to play with the Liberty in 2024, ranks 7th in scoring (15.4 PPG) while adding 5.8 boards, 2.6 assists and a league-leading 3.0 steals per game across the rest of the box score. Villeneuve’s strong perimeter defense has flummoxed some of the league’s best (Mersin shot 6-27 3PT in MD 10) and is instrumental to their solid (though inconsistent) defense which ranked last amongst the eight teams that made the quarterfinals. On offense, Burke’s biggest support comes from down low where Kariata Diaby (12 p, 6 r) and Janelle Salaün (11 p, 5 r) make up a very well-balanced front court—highlighted by Salaün’s ability to space the floor (team best 35.6% 3PT on 3.5 attempts per game).
How They Match-up + My Prediction
These teams are well acquainted after squaring off twice in the group stage, and the circumstances of their regular season split could tell us a lot about what has to happen for each team to win. Praha won the first meeting in Czechia 74-63 with their ability to get downhill proving more than enough to be the difference in the game (40-20 edge in paint points). In the return fixture, Villeneuve won 90-81 by shooting a scorching 64% from three—massively outperforming their season numbers (31%, 5th worst in EuroLeague) in the process. In that second meeting, Praha were still dominant inside (44-22), and their overall efficiency was relatively similar between the two contests. And even with Villeneuve’s insane shooting, the game was tight after a lopsided first quarter (where the hosts lead was as big as 20-2) and there’s no obvious differences in the way Praha defended across the two fixtures.
In other words, the only clear path for Villeneuve to beat Praha seems to be an out of the ordinary performance shooting the ball. In a single-elimination format, a hot shooting night is not out of the question—especially if Burke can perform as she did in the victory (31 p, 5/7 3 PT); however, it’s not a dependable outcome either. Villeneuve showed they can win without the three-ball going in against DVTK in the quarterfinals (17/70 across the three games), but they also benefitted from their opponents shooting 35% and 34% from the floor in their Game 2 and Game 3 wins. No matter what way you defend them, Praha have too many capable scorers who are good at getting to high-percentage areas to put up such poor shooting efficiency. Crazier things have happened, but I don’t think they will here. Final Score Prediction: Praha 72, Villeneuve 61