How Will the Sky Value Restricted Free Agents Onyenwere & Evans?
Given strong play at times in 2023 and 2024, both could return to Chicago, but what price point makes sense for all parties? And what about Chennedy Carter?
While the league-wide restricted free agent class is relatively small (6), the Sky will be plenty busy with “to match or not to match” decisions over the coming weeks as half of the league wide group belongs to Chicago’s roster. 2021 title-winner Dana Evans, 2024 star Chennedy Carter and second-half standout Michaela Onyenwere are all out of contract this winter with Chicago entitled to match any offer sheet they sign with another WNBA franchise. And in truth, the decisions the Sky make about these three free agents will not only say a lot about the franchise’s plans for year one under new coach Tyler Marsh but should give us a window into how GM Jeff Pagliocca and Marsh plan to mold the roster over the course of the next 24 months. Let’s dive into how Chicago could approach each of the three players on an individual level and what that approach means for the roster as a whole.
Dana Evans
Let’s start with the elephant in the room. Unless Marsh feels particularly strongly about Evans as the Sky’s starting point guard of the future, it’s difficult to see a scenario where the former Louisville Cardinal returns to Chicago for the 2025 season. After a steady climb up the Sky’s bench under James Wade and Emre Vatansever, Evans was ready for her big moment during the 2024 season, but nothing went as planned. Evans fell out of the starting line-up before six weeks of the season were gone and was reduced to a bit part role at times during the season. Had Marina Mabrey not requested a trade and left the Sky with a skeleton of a WNBA roster, I’d guess Evans might have been dealt before last year’s trade deadline, and I get the feeling Evans will be seeking a new start even if Marsh is interested in giving things another chance in 2025.
Evans still has the makings of a player that could be a long-term starting point guard in the WNBA, but her on court performance in 2024 simply didn’t justify any team handing her those reins just yet. Thus, the key will be to find a team that’s willing to promise her a consistent role off of the bench in 2025.
Chennedy Carter
At one point in time, I expected Carter to return to Chicago simply based on her exceptional 2024 production, and the lack of reasonable offensive engines that are available (and likely to come to the Sky) in this year’s free agent class. Yet, the smoke around a possible departure turned to fire on Monday when the Sky made the decision to issue qualifying offers to each of Evans, Onyenwere and Nikolina Milić (a reserved player who’s unlikely to play in the W in 2025) but did not extend such an offer to the 2020 All-Rookie selection.
There’s still time left until the deadline (January 20th) to extend such an offer, but there’s little reason the Sky would submit paperwork (which is essentially all a qualifying offer is) to the league on 3/4 players eligible while handling the final player at a separate time. With Chicago likely ruled out as a 2025 home, expect the market for Carter—in spite of all her brilliance in 2024—to be a tough one thanks to a number of factors:
-High Usage in ’24: Fair or not, some teams will attribute Carter’s success last season to having high-usage on a bad offensive team. They’ll either determine that they don’t have the touches needed to let her get that volume in their offense [think Las Vegas or Indiana], infer that she’ll be less productive with fewer opportunities, or both.
-“Burned Bridges”: Returns to Atlanta and Los Angeles seem unlikely—even if new leadership is in place for both franchises. I’d also cross Dallas off the list after Curt Miller entirely passed on working with Carter in 2023 (never mind the awkward offensive fit with Ogunbowale).
-Personality Concerns: Fair or not, teams will have concerns about Carter meshing with their coach and the rest of their locker room. I don’t see Carter causing issues based on the maturation we’ve seen in the last 12-18 months, but some teams will likely rule her out due to her history.
Michaela Onyenwere
Too often in New York and Phoenix, Onyenwere was a player brimming with potential who couldn’t put all the pieces together, but she finally found her stride when the Mabrey trade freed her to play a more expansive role in Teresa Weatherspoon’s team. While her defensive energy was present even in her limited early season role, Onyenwere’s offensive game finally began to flourish after moving into the Sky’s starting five for the final 16 games of the season. In those starts, she averaged in double figures—with respectable shooting numbers (44/39/65) in the first 14 of those before an ice-cold 6/20 finish in the final two road contests dented her overall numbers.
Of course, the Sky are paying for a full season’s impact; so, off nights like those at the end of the calendar can’t be cropped out of her stat line, but it’s also fair to expect more efficiency when the team’s roster is closer to full health than it was in the final week of last season. Thanks to the professional attitude she displayed in the midst of a fluctuating role (including some DNP’s) early in the season, the Sky can also feel confident that Onyenwere will successfully adapt to a change in role if she finds herself coming off the bench in Marsh’s set-up. In other words, there’s no reason to let Onyenwere walk this winter unless a massive offer comes in that forces Chicago to overcommit to a player they may see as a part of their bench group (but not a starter) long-term.
Thus, the question for Chicago becomes two-fold:
#1) Can they come to terms with Onyenwere at a solid number that suits both parties before she even has a chance to explore the open market?
#2) How big is the big number that comes in if she does make it to the point of negotiating with others?
Let’s tackle question two first because it informs the Sky’s aggressiveness in answering question one. The truth is, it’s virtually impossible to predict how WNBA teams will approach this offseason. With a new CBA on the way in 2026 and most of the league set to be a free agent, is it worth pushing chips in on anything less than a player who can carry you to a title (i.e. Breanna Stewart) in 2025? I get the feeling that the answer for most teams will be a resounding no.
Take a team like Dallas. With Satou Sabally set to leave Texas this winter, Onyenwere could be a good fit to replace some of her role in the Wings’ set-up. Mind you, Sabally’s demonstrated ceiling is much higher than the Onyenwere’s so far in their careers, but the type of impact both can have is similar enough that, under normal circumstances, I could see Dallas putting money on the table to ensure Arike Ogunbowale has viable support (with her own free agency looming on the horizon).
But, to ensure Chicago doesn’t match, Dallas probably needs to give Onyenwere an offer somewhere north of $150,000 per year over the next two seasons. Is Curt Miller (or any other GM) really going to stomach losing the opportunity to spend that $150,000+ on the bevy of free agents available after next season? Even if Dallas are less likely to land said free agents than other teams like Las Vegas and Indiana (who seem likely to be amongst the favored landing spots), they’re unlikely to want to give away the chance. Professional sports franchises have a tendency to overestimate their pulling power ahead of these big free agency shifts (I’m looking at you 2010 Chicago Bulls), and I see the next year and change of WNBA decision-making being no different.
For that reason, I think the number it takes to keep Onyenwere is lower than it would be in most any other year, and the onus is with Pagliocca to capitalize. Which brings me back to question one. If the Sky can get to the negotiating table with Onyenwere’s camp as soon as their negotiation window opens, I think there’s a strong chance to make a deal before discussions even begin with other teams. At a baseline level, Onyenwere will deliver on a price tag of $100k (a number that’s becoming a relative standard for solid, experienced veterans). At her best, she’s likely worth the “not quite a max player” contracts of $160-$180k that many marquee players have gotten in recent seasons.
Thus, I’d think Chicago would want to offer somewhere in the neighborhood of $130-140k per year for the next two-to-three seasons as a starting point. It’s a high-enough number to where you don’t risk insulting the player, but it’s also conservative enough that you stand a chance to find great value if she decides to take it.
In 2025, the Sky run relatively little risk of testing the salary cap; so, the year one number isn’t super consequential. Meanwhile, Onyenwere can swallow up most of the 2026 cap space created by the expiry of Moriah Jefferson’s contract ($145k) at the end of the 2025 season. By 2027, Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso will still be playing on the final year of their rookie deals with the third pick in this April’s draft also likely to be under a cost-controlled rookie deal as well. In short, the Sky should have serious flexibility over the course of the next three seasons, and the risk in offering a deal of this size to Onyenwere is relatively limited.
Of course, that doesn’t mean she’ll take it. Because of the dynamic player-profile she provides (multi-level scoring, high-energy defense, positional versatility), Onyenwere will have reason to believe that—even with the mass free agency on the horizon—someone on the open market will give her a solid deal worth at least 10-15% more than that potential opening offer. As I’ve maintained since before last season (when I suggested the Sky lock up Onyenwere during the pre-season extension window), I’d guess that at least one team will sell themselves on her profile and put in a semi-lucrative offer.
And there lies the real decision for the Sky. If Onyenwere asks for it, do they offer $150k (or more) to build goodwill with the player? Or, do they force her to go and get that offer from another team before matching it? Every player views these situations differently. Some will feel slighted by being forced to go seek offers elsewhere (thus, hurting the long term relationship) while others understand it’s simply part of restricted free agency.
Regardless, I see the Sky matching so long as the price tag doesn’t go too far above $150k as Onyenwere has all the tools to grow into such a deal with the right role and development under Marsh. The bigger question may be whether Onyenwere even wants a multi-year deal or if she’ll settle for a solid number for a single season and add her name to the list for next winter’s free agent bonanza.