Quick Three: Nneka Ogwumike Leaving LA + Meets with the Sky
Diving into where Nneka would help the Sky most and who else could join her in Chicago.
With free agency opening in just over a week (2/1), the rumor mill is finally starting to heat up, and the most notable story so far is Ramona Shelburne’s revelation that longtime Sparks forward Nneka Ogwumike plans to leave Los Angeles. As part of her unrestricted free agency, Shelburne shares that the former Stanford big has already taken meetings with Atlanta, Phoenix and Chicago with New York and Seattle scheduled for further meetings in the coming days. Nneka, for her part, made no secret of her travels over the last week, but the official statement from the team—a week before she can even sign with another franchise—definitely came as something of a surprise.
From the Sky’s perspective, being on a 5-team shortlist isn’t quite as prestigious as being in a similar position in a 30-team league, but it’s still noteworthy that Nneka felt comfortable taking a meeting with the Sky before the franchise has broken ground on its new practice facility (an important negotiation chip) or Teresa Weatherspoon has coached her first game with the team. We can argue how Ogwumike fits with each of the teams in ‘the race’ until we’re blue in the face, but I think there’s a compelling argument that—with her in the fold—the Sky look, comfortably, like one of the three most competitive rosters on the five-team shortlist (I’ll leave where the other 4 fit up to your imagination). Given she’s still got two meetings to go, we can only speculate for now, but I’m due for some speculation on Ogwumike joining Chicago after I discounted the possibility so heavily earlier in the week. Let’s dive into it:
1. Who else could join?
I’d rather start elsewhere, but I know that—in the heat of the rumor mill—this is where people’s minds will instantly go. Of course, a Skylar Diggins-Smith, Nneka Ogwumike and Kahleah Copper core sounds fun—right? The practicality of all that, however, is a very different story. I’ve talked about the cap a lot this offseason but let’s quickly rehash where we’re at. The Sky have 7 players under contract with a total salary of $951k (data from HerHoopStats). For simplicity’s sake, let’s fill the Sky’s three open roster spots with a trio of players on minimum contracts (valued at $64k). That leaves the Sky with around $320k to fill the final two roster spots—in this case with Ogwumike and Diggins-Smith.
Now, it’s not impossible that those two—in some fashion—would agree to share that money to make things work, but there’s no reason why they really should. The more realistic outcome—then—would be the Sky moving off of one of their current contracts to make things work. Kahleah Copper and Elizabeth Williams likely won’t be moving while a scorer of Marina Mabrey’s caliber would likely be a great fit as the ‘fourth-option’ with this hypothetical high-powered core. Even if the Sky were to float Mabrey, it’s difficult to see them getting adequate return on such a talented player in the midst of free agency. Thus, all roads lead back to Isabelle Harrison. With Williams, Sika Koné, and Li Yueru joining Nneka in this front court configuration, Harrison’s services might be surplus to requirement at the price ($160k), but she’s another player whose value on the trade market is difficult to judge after a long-term injury.
Of course, this complete roster reconstruction would also signal the end of Alanna Smith, Courtney Williams and Rebekah Gardner’s time in Chicago. My question—with all those players departing (granted at the expense of adding a couple of first ballot Hall-of-Famers)—is whether the Sky’s 2024 depth would be adequate. The starting line-up, on paper, looks stellar, but Dana Evans might be left carrying a lot of the scoring burden off of the bench. If Robyn Parks and Morgan Bertsch return, I’d anticipate them providing great value across the board, but both are still gaining experience scoring the ball in the W. Likewise, Koné and Yueru could well end up as elite bench bigs by season’s end, but they’re still young players who are learning the ropes as well. If at least a couple of those players reach their potential (and I think they probably will), the Sky would be in good shape, but there’s also a chance that the starters are repeatedly left trying to build a cushion that Dana and the bench struggle to hold onto while they rest.
Even if the Sky dealt Harrison and replaced her on the roster with another minimum player, they wouldn’t necessarily open up cap space to ‘upgrade’ one of those minimum slots to a more experienced veteran (even if said veteran offers to take a pay cut). Instead, they’d probably redistribute the ~$100k of freed up cap space into the deals of Diggins-Smith and Ogwumike. We can consider other scenarios (i.e. what if the Sky dealt Harrison and both free agents take discounts to strengthen the bench) all day, but there’s less and less value as we venture further from reality. Long story short, I’m all for adding superstar players, but I also think there’s a (much more practical) path to contention that involves signing only one of these stars and using the remaining money to bring back Courtney Williams or add some other exciting veterans from around the league.
And in case you’re wondering, trading Dana Evans isn’t useful as her fourth-year team option’s value is just above the vet minimum—making her a bargain the Sky would be foolish to move (never mind her presumed place in the franchise’s long term plans).
2. Spacing!
Personnel considerations aside, let’s get into the on court aspects. I touched briefly on Ogwumike’s ability to shoot the ball in my blog earlier in the week, but it’s worth returning to. Over the last seven years, Nneka has shot a very useful 35% on 1.6 three point attempts per game—something the Sky are in desparate need of. The four bigs contracted to Chicago for 2024 have made 5 threes in 481 WNBA games. Strictly looking at how the Sky’s bigs operate—that’s a problem, but the trickle down effect for the rest of the roster (especially a player like Kah who is one of the league’s premier drivers) is even more concerning. As a result, adding a player who can shoot the ball—even at a decent level like Alanna Smith (29.4% on 2.7 apg)—to next season’s front court mix is a critical priority. Bringing back Morgan Berstch would help in this area, but the ideal scenario is adding a player who can bring that skill and easily slide into the starting five.
Another aspect of her shooting that stands out to me is the consistency with which she shoots the ball. Aside from an outlier campaign in the bubble (50% on 1 attempt per game), her year-over-year three point numbers are remarkably steady. Case in point: her average attempts per game (1.7) has been the same for each of the three seasons since the bubble. To me, that type of consistency in volume suggests a shooter who is very confident in their approach and patient with their shot selection. After all, her efficiency (which is also remarkably steady [37%-37%-34%] in the last three years) indicates she would be well within her rights to let it fly a little more often. Instead, she’s letting the shots come to her instead of forcing them up. That’s good for her efficiency and for the flow of the offense—given her bread and butter is her ability to dominate down low. Regardless of how the rest of the roster ends up looking, adding a player who is so skilled inside and out alongside a polished post player like Elizabeth Williams and a trio of perimeter players (Kah, Dana, Marina) that can score at multiple levels instantly gives the Sky a top tier offense.
3. Rebounding
There was a pretty consistent dialogue around the Sky being a ‘bad’ defensive team last season, but I don’t think that was necessarily always the case. What they did struggle with was closing out defensive possessions with a board. I’ve already talked (at length) about how I think Sika can help in this area, but I’m unfortunately not certain that Spoon will show the same faith in her that I would. As a result (and with Courtney and Alanna not guaranteed to return), the Sky are in pretty serious need of someone who can play heavy minutes and help out on the glass (Harrison helps here too). Amongst those who played 20+ games last season, Nneka ranked 9th in rebounding percentage (17.1%)—several spots above the top Sky player (Smith, 24th, 14.6%) after Koné (5th, 18.7%).
If you’re not a fan of advanced metrics, no worries. Ogwumike’s 8.8 rebounds per game ranked her even higher (6th) on the league leaderboards and represented the second best per game output (9.1, 2016) of her W career. For comparison, Smith—a strong rebounder in her own right—averaged 6.6 boards per game. That Nneka continues to threaten her career highs in these key areas (19.1 PPG is also her second best season) at 33 years old also speaks to her continued dedication to her physical condition—with no obvious signs of decline in her game. All that said, context is important for rebounding numbers, and it won’t be as simple as copying and pasting her numbers into the Sky’s box scores. Yet, I struggle to see how adding Nneka to the fold doesn’t help the Sky improve in what was easily their weakest statistical area last season.