Weekend Preview: Sky Face Western Powers as Aces & Lynx Visit Wintrust
Chicago looks to snap a 7-game skid against the back-to-back champs before a slew of old friends make their return to the Windy City with Minnesota.
The Sky picked up two extremely valuable wins over fellow playoff contenders Dallas and Indiana last week, but their current standing in the playoff race could change drastically before the Olympic break given their upcoming schedule. In the two-and-a-half weeks before the W’s break for the Paris games, Chicago will face both of last season’s finalists—NY and Vegas—home and away as well as three more games against two of the league’s resurgent powers—Commissioner’s Cup champions Minnesota and Seattle—and a home-and-home with the always dangerous Dream. In other words, the road ahead is much tougher than the Sky’s recent stretch against fellow teams near the bottom of the pile. Let’s dive into the first two games—as Chicago looks to win three straight for the first time in 2024.
Sky vs. Aces
Thursday, June 27th at 6:00 PM CT on Prime Video
Matchup to Watch: Chelsea Gray vs. Minutes “Restriction”
Becky Hammon has noted that her three-time champion point guard is not on a conventional minutes restriction, but there’s an obvious effort to ramp the vet back up to speed given she played just 33 minutes total (off the bench) in her first two games back last week. Based on her impact in those two games, it seems like the Sky and the rest of the W can only expect to see the sometimes disjointed version of the Aces that opened the season 6-6 for as long as it takes Gray to work back into her normal role. Once she’s fully back to that role, the Aces will likely be back near their best as well. In her two cameo-like outings last week, Gray finished with 8 assists and a +24 plus-minus as Vegas beat two of the league’s best teams—underlining the fact that her presence was exactly what the champs were missing when they struggled early this season.
In the end, Gray’s absence may wind up as something of a blessing in disguise. We’ve yet to see Vegas lose their hunger since winning their first title in 2022, but the early season taste of losing figures to have them even more motivated to avoid complacency throughout the remainder of the campaign. By the time they reach the playoffs, Gray will be back to her usual share of minutes, and the team around her should be humming at both ends as a result. For the Sky, the only positive to take from all of this is that Gray—at least for now—looks closer to a 15-minute player than a 30-minute one. 15 less minutes of Gray means more fatigue on other perimeter players which, in theory, should heighten the Sky’s chances to win. In any case, the players the Aces do have for a full share of minutes—Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum and Tiffany Hayes—are, for the most part, bigger and more multi-dimensional than the Sky’s starting guard trio—meaning Chicago’s perimeter players face an uphill battle at both ends of the court on Thursday.
Numbers Game: Chicago’s Points in the Paint
In two playoff meetings with the Aces last season, the Sky were outscored by a total of 34 points in the paint—with Vegas’ dominance down low contributing heavily to their quick sweep of the eight-seed. Of course, Chicago’s roster is now very different, but this year’s team is more reliant on inside scoring—meaning struggles like the ones a season ago will likely prove insurmountable this time around. At the heart of it all is A’ja Wilson, still the W’s premier interior defender, while Kiah Stokes remains a perfect supporting actor to the two-time MVP—especially since she’s in the midst of her best rebounding season of her decade-long career (27.2 DRB%). To make a long story short, it’s going to be very difficult for the Sky to score near their season average of 41.9 PPG in the paint (best in the W) with Wilson, Stokes and the rest of the Vegas defense aware that clogging up the paint (and grabbing boards to limit second-chance looks) will usually slow the Sky offense near to a halt.
So, what can the Sky do to work towards that season average of nearly 42 points per game? Well, since Wilson’s defensive game has all the attributes needed to exploit the weaknesses Angel Reese has, Kamilla Cardoso’s extra size looks like the best weapon at the Sky starters’ disposal—even if Stokes seems to play much bigger than her 6’3” frame. If Chicago can work inside to Cardoso—especially with high post-entry passes that allow her to score without ever putting the ball on the floor, she should be able to give Stokes some issues. If Cardoso can build up momentum, Becky Hammon could always choose to throw the slightly taller Wilson her way. That match-up change could open a window for Reese to have a little more success against the solid but less dominant Stokes. In either case, Wilson (much like Stokes) is exceptional at stepping across to help—meaning avoiding the reigning DPOY entirely is impossible.
So, with all that said, I think this could be a great game for Isabelle Harrison or Michaela Onyenwere to make an impact. With Harrison, the Sky retain the size needed to contend with the Aces’ front court, but also add in a player who’s a more convincing floor spacer than either of Reese or Cardoso. If Harrison can knock down some outside shots, that’s a great outcome but simply moving one of the Vegas bigs away from the paint could provide some important breathing room for the Sky guards as they try to penetrate and score some paint points of their own. Onyenwere could provide a similar impact and maybe even try to attack one of Stokes or Wilson off of the dribble, but her size alone (6’0”) makes guarding either of those two a difficult task when Vegas has the ball—though she has defended well against bigger fours and fives overseas in the past.
Sky vs. Lynx
Sunday, June 30th at 2:00 PM CT
Matchup to Watch: Reese & Cardoso vs. Collier & Smith
This feels like one of those match-ups that you can’t perfectly predict until you actually see it play out. The style of the two pairings is extremely different, and it’s tough to predict which advantages will be most influential until the ball is tipped. Here’s a tale of the tape for the Sky and Lynx front court starters:
Size: Advantage Chicago
While Collier’s strength makes her far more imposing than the average 6’1” forward, Reese still has two inches on her. Cardoso has even more size on Smith (3 inches), and the Brazilian’s sturdy physique could cause trouble for the more mobile frame of the Aussie.
Athleticism: Push
Depending on how you define athleticism (strength/speed/etc.), this can swing either way. All 4 are well-above average athletes at their position.
Skill: Advantage Minnesota
Simply based on the difference in experience this should be no surprise, but the Lynx’s duo are each amongst the most-skilled front court players in the W. Their ability to finish off-the-dribble or around the basket with post moves is several tiers above that of the Sky pairing.
Rebounding: Advantage Chicago
This figures to be a huge factor in the game if Chicago wins. Others on the team contribute to these numbers, but the Sky are dominant on the offensive glass (30.3%, 2nd) while the Lynx struggle there (21.0%, 10th). Neither are impressive on the defensive side (MIN - 9th, CHI - 11th). In all, a presumed edge for the Sky.
Shooting: Advantage Minnesota
I feel that Collier can be an even better three-point shooter, but there’s no comparison between her and Smith’s elite range and the Sky duo’s.
Defense: Advantage Minnesota
I nearly labeled this one a push because both duos are great, but the advanced numbers show Collier and Smith have been even better than great. Both are top 6 in defensive rating and win shares which is very impressive (even if I’m not big into cumulative advanced stats like WS). Smith, as she showed in Chicago, is one of the W’s best help defenders.
In summation, this match-up should be fascinating. There are some overlapping skills at play, but the majority of the decisive attributes swing towards one side. Whoever can get the best of the front court battle as a whole could hold a huge leg up in winning the game. As a trump card, Collier is one of the league’s best players—something none of the other three can reasonably claim at this point.
Numbers Game: Kayla McBride 3PM vs. Sky 3PM
The Sky make fewer three-point field goals per game than any team in the W (4.3 per game) while McBride makes more (3.3) than any other player. And while the Sky do so with little efficiency (30.1%), McBride is one of just three players in the W’s top-14 in threes made per game to hit at a clip above 40% as she makes an absurd 46.4% of her threes (one of the others is teammate Bridget Carleton who hits 2 threes per game at 43.5%). In other words, there’s a pretty good chance that McBride could cancel out Chicago’s three-point production all on her own in Sunday’s game. If McBride is matching the Sky as a team shot for shot from three, that means every three made by a teammate is—at minimum—a one-point edge over the Sky’s two-point heavy attack on the scoreboard. While the duo of McBride and Carleton is responsible for more than half of Minnesota’s three-point makes, there’s numerous other players on this roster (Courtney Williams, Smith and Collier come to mind) who can catch fire quickly and hit 2-3 long-range shots in quick succession.
And while that long-range excellence does impact their inside scoring (11th in paint points at 30.3 per game), Cheryl Reeve and her staff will be more than happy to accept that trade off as long as their threes are falling at this rate. The key for Chicago is making sure that whatever threes the ‘other’ players take are heavily contested. Tight coverage on McBride is preferred, but she often looks impervious to a hand in her face. Smith (46%), Williams (33%) and Collier (31%), on the other hand, are much more likely to take (and make) threes when open; so, Chicago can cut their losses in the three-point differential by limiting the opportunities each has to catch and shoot cleanly. Of course, each can also put the ball on the floor and attack the basket effectively so maintaining close contact with them on the perimeter is always easier said than done.