Game Preview: Sky Close First Half With Visit to Reigning Champion Aces
Chicago and Chennedy Carter look to bounce back against Las Vegas and MVP frontrunner A'ja Wilson.
After a pair of losses to the league-leading Liberty, the Sky are likely ready for the reprieve of the international break for the Paris Olympics. However, the road to that break gets no easier on Tuesday night when Chicago visits the two-time defending champion Aces to close their ‘first-half’ (which has actually included 24 of the season’s 40 games). With a playoff position still firmly in view, the Sky are well ahead of preseason expectations for many—meaning the vibes should be largely positive amongst the team. Yet, after a frustrating home loss over the weekend, there’s no doubt that Chicago would like to go into the month-long break on a better note. Though getting a win against one of the league’s premier teams will be tough, let’s dive into what the Sky must do well to have a chance.
Matchup to Watch: Chennedy Carter vs. Aces Guards
Carter remains the Sky’s leading scorer despite finishing with only 7 points in a (near season low) 15:49 of action on Saturday against New York. In 8 meetings with Vegas prior to 2024, the Aces were one of Carter’s least favored opponents (9.1 PPG), but she righted that ship with a 20-point scoring effort in the loss at Wintrust on June 27th. In that game, Carter saw a variety of defensive match-ups with each of Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum and Tiffany Hayes spending time guarding her, but it was the actions Teresa Weatherspoon ran to give her top scorer a head of steam on the way to the basket which were most valuable. If you look at many of the scores below, Carter catches ball at speed and with the defender in a compromised position (chasing, off-balance, etc.). There are few (if any) guards that can keep Carter in front of them from a standing start, but the chance of containing her when she catches the ball with momentum already established is non-existent.
Another key here is the placement of the bigs during these actions. Whether it’s a ball screen from Reese, Cardoso along the baseline or Harrison diving away from the basket, the Sky front court players not being in the lane is just as key to Carter getting a clean look as where and when she catches the ball. Carter can finish in many ways but Kiah Stokes and, especially, A’ja Wilson can stop almost all of those with their presence at the rim. Wilson leads the league with 2.8 BPG and Stoke registered 6 blocks in the previous meeting with the Sky. We’ve seen before that rim protectors can do damage with their shot-stopping against the Sky’s rookie front court pairing, but the damage solid rim protection can do to Carter’s role on the offense is even more detrimental to Chicago scoring the ball. If the two rookies and Harrison can keep setting up in (or moving to) spots away from the basket, it means that only a Wilson chase down (something that’s not out of the question) can stop Carter. As they did in the last meeting, the Aces will also likely throw zone defenses at the Sky—which limits the influence of a big moving outside the paint but makes it easier for Carter to cut cross-court and attack a stationary perimeter defender on the catch.
Numbers Game: Bench Scoring
Chicago managed to put up 83 points against Vegas’ fifth-ranked defense (101.8 DRTG) in the last meeting despite getting just 6 bench points outside of garbage time. With Becky Hammon likely to make considerable adjustments to her defensive coverages to limit both Carter and Marina Mabrey (41 total points) and Angel Reese’s 18 points against the league’s best individual defensive player far from guaranteed, the Sky will likely need a lot more from their bench if they want to have any chance of snapping the franchise’s 8-game losing streak against the back-to-back champs. Isabelle Harrison is the most obvious choice to make an impact given she’s the only bench player with a semi-consistent role, and her ability to step out and hit shots from the mid-range can help the Sky (1) avoid the aforementioned threat of Vegas’ shot blockers and (2) break up any zone looks that Hammon does sprinkle in. At the same time, the Sky will likely need at least one of their bench players with an outside shot to make an impact.
Dana Evans’ case remains a difficult one to crack as she’s shooting the second-highest 3 point percentage on the team (35.9%), continues to provide solid energy at the defensive end and has done a serviceable job of playmaking (career high in assists per 36) with mixed personnel groups alongside her. Yet, she continues to struggle for rhythm inside the arc where, in theory, she should be able to do her biggest damage attacking off of the dribble. Her current role, which is very inconsistent, is unlikely to help her improve greatly upon these numbers as ten or fewer minutes (a total she’s gotten in 5 of the Sky’s last 8 games) simply isn’t enough to find a groove in game. Whether her play is limiting her role or vice versa is a bit of a ‘chicken or the egg’ scenario, but I don’t see her offensive game turning a corner as long as this continues. With Evans approaching free agency, I tend to agree with Annie Costabile of the Chicago Sun-Times’ assessment that a trade may be the optimal next step for all parties.
While Evans’ play has varied somewhat with her role, Michaela Onyenwere has almost always appeared as a net positive for her energy and 3-point shooting alone (42.1% in ‘24) when given playing time. Yet, she’s not always found rhythm scoring at the other two levels (something she did very well overseas) because of her inconsistent playing time. That said, the performance Onyenwere delivered on Saturday against New York surely must mean we’ve turned a corner on her role. Since her previous season high of 13 points against her former team New York on 5/23, Onyenwere has had more DNPs (6) than games where she played 10+ minutes (5). Weatherspoon has negotiated some pretty difficult rotational changes successfully in her first season as coach, but this remains the one big head-scratcher. After Saturday’s efficiency, a return to a role of relative obscurity on the Chicago bench would raise a lot of red flags about the process Chicago’s coaching staff is using to build their rotation.