Week(end) Preview: Sky Close in on Break with Tilts Against Dream & Liberty
Chicago looks to continue building on its strong play of the last week with three games against Eastern Conference foes in a four day stretch.
After a week-long road trip, the Sky return home on Wednesday to start a chaotic sprint to the Olympic-break finish line against the Dream before a weekend home-and-home with the league-leading Liberty. With this week’s games set to represent the third clash against the Dream and the third and fourth (and final) meetings against the Liberty in the 2024 season, there’s little new to analyze as far as match-ups go. The Sky will need to limit Allisha Gray, Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart but anyone who’s seen the opening two meetings against these teams knows that by now (if they somehow didn’t before the season). Thus, the key for Teresa Weatherspoon and her staff is to hone in on the marginal details that can win the games for the Sky. As they already have wins over the Liberty and the Dream this season, they know what they’ve done well to win; let’s take a look at what they can improve upon in each match-up to better their odds of adding a second victory against these conference opponents.
Sky vs. Dream
Wednesday, July 10th at 11:00 AM CT
What the Sky Want to Change: Defensive Rebounding
The Sky remain one of the league’s worst defensive rebounding teams (74.1% - 9th in the W), but they’ve particularly struggled against this Atlanta team (67.6% in two meetings). In the first meeting between the teams on 6/8, it was a group effort for Atlanta as Cheyenne Parker-Tyus grabbed four offensive boards but six other teammates grabbed at least one. When the teams met last week, it was the immortal Tina Charles who did the heavy lifting—grabbing 6 of the team’s ten offensive rebounds. Chicago’s continued struggles on the defensive glass—even after drafting Cardoso and Reese—could go down as a concern for Weatherspoon and GM Jeff Pagliocca. However, there’s definite improvement in this area in recent weeks—especially with Cardoso taking on a bigger role following the season-ending injury to Elizabeth Williams. The Sky are already seeing returns from the Brazilian’s presence with the team’s DRB% jumping up to 78.2% when she’s on the floor—a mark that would be good for 3rd best in the league.
Metrically, Reese also has a huge impact with the Sky over 11% better in DRB% when she’s on the court. Thus, the onus, perhaps, falls on others to help clean up the long rebounds and loose balls that get past the Chicago front court players in order to improve the team’s overall figures on the defensive glass. Of course, if Charles is the one doing the majority of the work on the offensive glass, then Cardoso and Reese likely play a role, but it’s the one or two offensive rebounds that players like Maya Caldwell or Jordin Canada collect that often make the 7-8% difference between the league’s best and worst defensive rebounding teams. On that note, the Sky also suffered last week due, in part, to Marina Mabrey’s drastically reduced role. Because of her size, Mabrey is comfortably the Sky’s best rebounding guard, and she played a season low 18:48 in College Park. Due to her experience and craftiness, Chicago likely has to live with Charles’ impact on the offensive glass to some degree, but a bigger game and more minutes from Mabrey could help limit the impact of Atlanta’s perimeter players on the rebounding battle. A halving of the deficit in second-chance scoring (+10 for Atlanta on 6/8, +5 on 7/2) contributed to the Sky’s win last week, and a similar outcome this time around could go a long way towards giving the Sky another key victory in the push for the playoffs.
Sky vs. Liberty
Thursday, July 11th at 6:00 PM CT on Prime Video (@NY)
Saturday, July 13th at 12:00 PM CT on ABC (@CHI)
What the Sky Want to Change: Crunch Time Performance
The Sky were strong late in their win over the Liberty at the start of the season with a 27-point effort in the final frame; however, their 9-point showing in the last meeting completely undermined the 66-65 lead they had through three quarters. And, in truth, those struggles late in games have been a theme of the 2024 season to this point. Chicago has played the second most “clutch” games of any team in the W (15), but they’re just 5-10 in those games. Their defense has had its ups and downs, but the biggest cause of their struggles has been the teams’ offensive execution late in games. At just 33.3%, they have the worst clutch field-goal percentage in the league, and they also sit near the bottom of the league in three-point (15.4% - last) and free-throw (64.5% - 10th) percentage in these key late game scenarios.
In their two wins over the Dream and Storm last week, it felt like the Sky took a step forward as they closed both games effectively, but they still shot just 36% from the floor in clutch scenarios in those two games. One area where they definitely did take a step forward was in their understanding of late-game responsibilities. After struggling to find a go-to player late in games for the opening six weeks of the season, Chicago is now leaning heavily on Chennedy Carter to create and make the shots that decide games. Having multiple players who can close the game out late is a luxury that all coaches would like to have, but even a team stocked full of hall-of-fame talents needs to know who is going to take the lead when the game is on the line. With Carter now clearly settled in that role, Chicago can now focus on cleaning up everything around her to try and maximize their odds of winning tight games. To continue their evolution, Chicago needs to continue hitting free throws like they did in the victories last week (85.7% in clutch), improve their shot selection and work on moving better off the ball to ensure Carter has an outlet if/when the opposition can slam the door shut on her drives. With Carter in her current form, the Sky stand a pretty good chance of improving their winning-percentage in close games if they can get those details right—especially against a powerhouse opponent like New York.