Weekend Preview: Sky Face Eastern Powers New York & Connecticut
Chicago faces two of the league's best from a season ago as part of a split weekend which includes a trip east plus the home opener.
After an impressive Saturday night victory on the road in Dallas, the Sky are riding high as they prepare for a third successive road game to start the season on Thursday night—this time against the New York Liberty at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. After last season’s disappointing defeat in the WNBA Finals, Sandy Brondello’s team are off to a flying start to the season despite being one of the league’s busiest teams—with Thursday set to be their 5th game in the season’s first 10 days. After a win against Seattle on Monday, the Liberty are 4-0 and figure to be amongst the teams most likely to unseat Las Vegas later this fall. After Thursday’s game, the Sky will return to Chicago for their home opener on Saturday night against the Connecticut Sun—which also marks the first of a three game homestead at Wintrust Arena. The Sun, who lost to New York in the semifinals a season ago, are also off to a strong start and have looked quite a bit more consistent in their victories than the Liberty in the early going. Let’s dive into previewing what will be a tricky second weekend for Teresa Weatherspoon and company—starting with the “Sky-Zone” where I hone in on something to watch out for from Chicago in both of this weekend’s games.
Sky-Zone: Three Guard Line-ups
With both Isabelle Harrison and Kamilla Cardoso missing the opening games of the season, Weatherspoon was always going to need to be creative with her rotations—especially against a big Dallas team. Yet, the biggest line-up wrinkle of week one was, surprisingly, heavy usage of three guard line-ups. The extra ‘smalls’ provided a lot of value of putting the ball on the floor and attacking the basket, but there’s also reasons why those line-ups won’t work at times—as was the case when Dallas went super big in the second quarter on Wednesday. And to that point, this weekend’s two-game set should provide a very interesting contrast in opposition for these three guard line-ups to test themselves against.
Thursday night against New York, Weatherspoon should be able to count on getting good usage out of the line-ups—with Marina Mabrey capable of taking on Betnijah Laney-Hamilton at the three. However, in Saturday’s home opener, the Sky are less likely to have such a luxury as the Sun’s starters simply create too many match-up nightmares for any of Chennedy Carter, Dana Evans or Mabrey to reasonably defend at the three. With Diamond DeShields still on a minutes restriction, the Chicago coaching staff will likely look to Michaela Onyenwere to fill the additional minutes at the three. Defensively, the energy Onyenwere has showed early in the season means that’s a more than suitable exchange, but the former Mercury forward has been less effective than the aforementioned guards in the half-court offense. The more minutes the attack-minded DeShields can play as the season goes on, the less of an issue this will be, but, in the meantime, the Sky will hope to see a greater offensive impact from Onyenwere this week—especially against the Sun on Saturday night.
Sky at Liberty
Thursday, May 23rd at 6:00 PM CT on Amazon Prime Video
Matchup to Watch: Angel Reese vs. Breanna Stewart
Despite the fact the Sky and Liberty played in the preseason, the Sky’s small-ball line-up in that game means that we never really got the chance to see the Sky’s seventh overall pick defend last season’s MVP. And while every game as a rookie is a learning opportunity, a multi-dimensional opponent like Stewart registers as an especially difficult study. That being said, Reese, thanks to her athleticism and history as a guard, has had plenty of success defending on the perimeter—an area where Stewart often gives other fours trouble. Reese defends well in space, has the athletic tools needed to work on the move and reads the game well enough to anticipate some of what Stewart will throw her way.
All that said, this isn’t the SEC. The tape we have on Reese defending on the perimeter is all against players who simply aren’t of the same standard as Stewart. The veteran knows all the tricks to score past any style of defender, has the multi-level scoring ability needed to keep Reese chasing shadows and can use her length to score even when the Sky rookie is draped all over her. Thus, Reese needs to look for any area where she can create an advantage—with one potential edge being on the glass. Because of her comparatively slim frame, Stewart’s rebounding prowess is often under-appreciated (career 15.7% rebound percentage), but Reese (16.2% through two games) is already building a strong reputation of her own. In a difficult head-to-head against the Wings’ bigs, Reese more than held her own and the match-up with Stewart figures to be one she can edge (albeit only slightly). When Chicago is in possession, Reese will need to look to use her quickness and try to work off the dribble if she wants to evade Stewart’s high-end rim protection (1.8 BPG). Anything Reese can do offensively against a first-team all-defense player will be a plus, but the Sky will also hope for her to limit Stewart as much as possible with her defense to boost their odds of leaving Brooklyn with the win.
Numbers Game: Three-Point Shooting
Despite their opening weekend split with the Wings, the Sky simply did not shoot the basketball well in Texas—especially from behind the arc. Marina Mabrey was just 5/18 from three while Dana Evans was 2/9, and it goes without saying that there’s little chance for this Chicago team as a whole to shoot a good percentage from three if those two are at 26%. Thus, it’s no surprise that, after just a few games for each team, the Sky sit eleventh in the WNBA at 23.7% from long range. Meanwhile, the Liberty—despite a well below average start in their first few games—are still sitting at 30.9% through four games. Largely fueled by Sabrina Ionescu (7.5 3PA per game), New York are also one of the highest volume three-point shooting teams in the W early on (27.5 per game, 3rd most in the W) after shooting more threes last season than any team in WNBA history.
To make a long story short, the Sky can lose a lot of ground in this department—and quickly. Because of the personnel they have, there’s no reason for the Sky to try and keep up with New York from a volume perspective, but they’ll need to improve upon the efficiency they displayed in Dallas to have a realistic chance to win Thursday’s game. Also helpful would be slowing down Ionescu and New York to any extent. The Mystics played the Liberty close in DC last Tuesday and the small edge they managed over New York in three-point scoring (30-24) was largely fueled by their strong defensive work against Ionescu—who was only 1 for 7 from long range in that game. With Diamond DeShields likely focused on the slightly bigger and more dynamic Laney-Hamilton, expect to see Evans and Carter given the Ionescu assignment—with their speed and shiftiness helping them to track her around screens and deny clean catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Sky vs. Sun
Saturday, May 25th at 7:00 PM CT on CBS Sports Network
Matchup to Watch: Marina Mabrey vs. Dijonai Carrington
Because of the versatility and unique size of DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas it’s difficult to say exactly how the Sky and Sun will match-up at either end of the court, but my assumption is that Sun coach Stephanie White will use Carrington to defend Mabrey. The fourth-year wing drew a lot of plaudits for her opening night performance guarding Caitlin Clark, and the size she brings (5’11”, same as Mabrey) figures to take away some of the advantages Mabrey typically creates against smaller guards—especially in the post. Meanwhile, Carrington’s agility will allow her to stay in front of Mabrey when the Sky’s star puts the ball on the floor with her performance against Clark showing that she’s also capable of contesting and getting a good long-range shooter out of rhythm. In total, that syncs up perfectly for Mabrey to have a long evening in the Sky’s home opener.
So what can Weatherspoon due to help mitigate some of that? Getting Mabrey plenty of opportunities to be an off-ball weapon would be a good start. In the second half of the Sky’s win in Dallas last weekend, Chicago found Mabrey a few scoring chances that didn’t start with the ball in her hand, and this had a two-fold impact. First, it took the pressure off of Mabrey to do the work to create her looks—allowing her to focus solely on hitting shots. While she’s talented enough to compartmentalize the two tasks and still be successful, it doesn’t hurt to give a great scorer simplified offensive responsibilities from time to time either. A second (but equally important) impact is that Mabrey spaces the floor well for Chicago when she’s off the ball. Beyond Dana Evans (who it looks Weatherspoon is working on establishing as an off-ball threat), Chicago has few other off-ball shooting threats. When Mabrey is out of possession, she adds a unique dynamic for the opposing coach to concern themselves with. Of course, Carrington has also started the season in great rhythm at the offensive end (17 PPG)—meaning this figures to be a decisive two-way battle. Mabrey competed well on defense in the first two games in Dallas and will need to continue doing so against the Sun.
Numbers Game: Free Throw Differential
Through three games, the Sun have done an exceptional job defending without fouling while also getting to the line at a fantastic clip. The Sun have shot 27 free throws per game (most in the W) while their opponents are shooting just 15 (third fewest). Of course, all of that would be for not if Connecticut wasn’t hitting when they do get to the line, but that’s not been a problem either as the Sun are hitting 82.7% of their free throws so far this season. Those numbers, of course, will change before Saturday as the Sun play again at home against the Lynx on Thursday night, but the underlying message is clear: this is a veteran team who knows how to go about their business and is gaining nearly 5 extra points per game at the line compared to the next closest team.
At the defensive end, the Sun have the 5th best rating in the league, and they’re very capable of keeping things slow in the half court—an area where Chicago, who want to get out and run, are unlikely to be at their best offensively. Thus, the Sky—who dealt with serious foul trouble late in the third quarter of Saturday’s win in Dallas—need to keep the Sun off the line as much as possible and hit their own tries at the opposite end. In game one against Dallas, the Sky won the free-throw differential (16 made vs. 8 for the Wings), but they needed 17 additional attempts to do so—meaning the efficiency (59.3%) wasn’t where they need it to be. On Saturday, the Wings made more (21/23) than the Sky, but the uptick in Chicago’s percentage (15/20, 75%) was an important part of the win—especially given the aforementioned struggles from long range. When it comes to keeping the Sun off the line, it’s also important for the Sky to do so because less fouls on Williams and Reese means Chicago’s starting bigs can be on the court having an impact—like they were during the fourth quarter comeback Saturday in Dallas.