Game Preview: Sky Face Quick Turn Around Against Red-Hot Lynx
Minnesota are 6-1 since the break and look to take the season series after a 70-62 win in Chicago on June 30th.
The frantic second half of the WNBA season continues on Sunday when the Sky play their second game in less than 48 hours against the third-place Lynx away at Target Center in Minneapolis. Chicago figures to be without leading-scorer Chennedy Carter, who was still subject to health-and-safety protocols as of tip-off on Friday night against Indiana, and her absence will be especially felt in, this, the 3rd of 5 games in 10 days that she misses. But with Atlanta losing again on Friday night in Las Vegas (the Dream have now slumped to 4 straight losses after they quickly closed the gap to 8th with a 3-0 start to the second half), it is still Chicago who sits in the final playoff spot entering Sunday—with Atlanta hoping to close the gap further later in the day when they visit the Sparks. Let’s dive into the keys to the game for Chicago, and explore how they can pull a big upset against the W’s best team in the month of August.
1. Hold the Lynx to 40 or fewer in the first half.
The Sky simply have to have better defensive starts in their remaining 9 games of the regular season. I’ve harped on enough about the amount of points that the opposition are scoring in the first half, but Friday’s game against the Fever was an example of how ugly things can get when Chicago can’t flip the script and turn up the heat after half time. And while Indiana put the game away after the break by pushing the gas pedal even further down, Minnesota has the types of players needed to completely suffocate the game in the second half if they score 45-50 points and build a solid lead in the first half—with their defense allowing the second fewest points per game in the W (76.2). Since they’re also one of the league’s most efficient shooting sides both from the floor (44.8% - 5th in the W) and from behind the arc (38.7% - best in the W), Minnesota knows they can slow the game down to a crawl, limit the number of possessions (and, thus, chances to close a deficit) and still carve up a defense in the half court with their outside shooters and multi-level scoring threats.
If you want evidence of this in action, look no further than the fourth quarter of the last meeting between these two at the end of June. Even with the Sky up by 5 after three quarters, the Lynx completely closed things down at the defensive end (allowing just 5 points all quarter) and let their offense slow the game to a crawl—attempting just 11 field goals of their own in the entire quarter. The Sky, meanwhile, attempted 23 shots but only got to that total thanks to 8 offensive rebounds. Without the slew of second chance looks (which will still be on offer as Minnesota allows the second most offensive boards per game), the Sky too would’ve been in the mid-teens, and that type of volume will never be enough to close a gap if the Sky’s first-half defensive woes have forced them into chasing from behind (instead of entering with a lead) this time around.
2. Make Minnesota’s best players beat you.
The Sky did a good job limiting MVP candidate Napheesa Collier in the last meeting on June 30th holding her to just 5/13 FG and 13 points—her third lowest scoring output in 27 games this season. Likewise, Courtney Williams (9 pts, 40% FG) was a shade below her season numbers (11 PPG, 43% FG), and Kayla McBride—while ultimately influential on the result thanks to her FT shooting (8/8)—was at least kept somewhat in check behind the arc where she made “only” 2 three-point shots (she’s made four or more 9 times already in ‘24). Yet, for all the Sky did well against that big three, it was reserves Cecilia Zandalasini and Natisha Hiedeman who made a big difference and helped the Lynx win even with their marquee names held below their exceptional season-long averages.
On the scoring front, Zandalasini had 8 points (nearly twice her season average) all of which came in a second half the Lynx won 36-23. Thanks to the critical timing of her impact, she finished the game +19 in 20 minutes. Heideman, on the other hand, filled in all the other stats with 4 assists, 3 steals and 2 boards—with her +8 perfectly matching the Lynx’s 8-point margin of victory. If the Sky want to win on Sunday, they need to keep those players in check without taking focus off of the big names that they faired relatively well against last time out. Collier, of course, still needs to remain priority 1A, but it would be a great shame for the Sky to hold her to another tepid line and lose because of the rotational stalwarts’ impact once again. And for a team that was already deep when these two last met in June, the Minnesota bench has gotten even stronger with the addition of Myisha Hines-Allen—though Chicago did a great job limiting her impact for the Mystics in two early season meetings (5.0 r & 3.5 p on 2/8 FG).
3. Stay aggressive in the half court.
The flashes of the Sky as a downhill team since the Olympic break have clearly shown a team that can attack the basket with regularity, but it’s clear that there’s an issue carrying that momentum through long stretches in the half-court. And while that’s to be expected to some degree as opposing defenses can sink extra numbers into the paint as a result of the Sky’s lack of punishing outside scorers, the alternatives for Chicago have been so ineffective that it’s worth continuing to try going downhill even when there’s extra traffic on the way to the basket. I’ve talked a lot about the Sky getting to the free-throw line as much as possible in the games since the Marina Mabrey trade, and they’ve done a decent job (18.4 FTA per game in August — 4th most in the W) but will probably need to be at or near the league lead (22.8 per game - CON) in that metric to give their offense enough scoring to keep pace on a nightly basis (especially considering they shot only 67.4% at the line last month).
On Friday, the Sky fell in love with deeper shots after seeing some threes go in early, and the result was their second-highest number of missed threes in a game this season (16). While they also made as many threes as any game this season (9), that’s, weirdly, not a trade off that suits this Chicago team. You’d think that, given their struggles to shoot the three, any road that leads to them making a lot would be ideal (and their 36% efficiency was quite good), but the Sky simply don’t have the consistency needed to justify that type of volume on a nightly basis. Some of their three-point attempts Friday were from spot-up looks with lots of time left on the shot clock, and that type of shot selection definitely is not in this team’s wheelhouse. Teresa Weatherspoon and her staff will have had little time to pour over Friday night’s film in the time before this meeting with the Lynx, but improved shot selection and a continued focus on aggression possession after possession should absolutely be focal points of their pre-game message. When Lindsay Allen or Michaela Onyewnere are putting the ball on the floor and attacking, this is a very different team, and the playmaking that pair (especially Allen) can do from those drives should also help to create easier inside looks for Kamilla Cardoso and Angel Reese who shot just 5/14 on Friday night against a well-organized and (too often unmoved) Indiana interior.