Weekend Preview: Sky Visit Lynx, Host Mercury with Playoff Berth in Balance
Chicago's tough schedule and Wednesday loss to the Mystics mean they're likely to be scoreboard watching this weekend as Atlanta & Washington meet twice.
After suffering their biggest loss of the season on Wednesday night at home against Washington, Teresa Weatherspoon and the Sky have no choice but to dust themselves down and go again this weekend—with just four games left before the end of the WNBA season. Ironically, Chicago will have to go through two of the key cogs of last season’s late push to the playoffs this weekend to earn their sixth straight postseason berth. Up first is a match-up with Alanna Smith, Courtney Williams, and the Lynx on Friday before the 2024 Wintrust finale sees the Sky host Kahleah Copper and the Mercury on Sunday. Let’s dive into how this year’s team can look to replicate last year’s late-season success by earning a crucial victory (or two) this weekend.
Sky at Lynx
Friday, September 13th at 6:30 PM CT on ION
Battle for Mid-Range Supremacy
Friday’s game should provide a fantastic display of mid-range basketball from a number of sources on both sides. Courtney Williams, maybe the premier mid-range scorer in the W, leads the league in mid-range attempts per game (6.9) and sits at a staggering 45.3% in that range so far this season. Meanwhile, teammate Napheesa Collier is similarly impressive between the perimeter and the paint with a 50% field-goal percentage on the 10th-most attempts per game league wide in that area. Across the way, Chicago answers with a similarly impressive duo of their own as Chennedy Carter is not far behind Williams with 4.4 mid-range attempts per game (5th in the W) and a 40.7% mark on those looks. Her front court spacer is Isabelle Harrison who’s taken on a bigger offensive role in the absence of Angel Reese and hit 4 of 10 shots outside the paint in her two starts—good for a clip of 5 per game that would rank top 5 in the W.
The consequence, for both teams, is that the paint should be more open, but a more open paint is—of course—much more valuable to Chicago than most other teams in the WNBA. Alanna Smith is a top-tier defender, but a one-on-one match-up with Kamilla Cardoso inside is still not something she’ll be keen to entertain throughout the night. If the Sky can use Cardoso’s post touches to (1) isolate a Lynx defender or (2) kick out to Harrison, Carter or Michaela Onyenwere for mid-to-long range shots as needed, it gives them a chance to poke holes in Minnesota’s otherwise stout defense. In previous match-ups with Reese in the fold, the Sky tried to spread the Lynx out, but it’s no secret that dragging Reese away from the rim takes away from her most exceptional skill (rebounding) which, of course, was also a valuable source of offense for the Sky. Whether this dynamic change is enough to increase the Sky’s output from the 68 PPG (and 14 fourth quarter PPG) they’ve scored in their two previous meetings with the Lynx remains to be seen, but the added dynamic of Harrison in the front court should at least force Cheryl Reeve to tinker with the defensive game plans that worked so well in past meetings.
Limiting Napheesa Collier
For all that Harrison adds in the mid-range, she’s not the same player as Reese when it comes to defending Collier. Reese is a well-above average perimeter defender and deals with space exceptionally well, and Harrison—while a great athlete in her own right—isn’t likely to be so effective. On the interior, she can make Collier’s life difficult, but the Lynx forward can (30.4%) and will (3 attempts per game) shoot the three-ball so a multi-dimensional defensive coverage is needed to limit her without the multi-dimensional individual that’s done quite well against her in two past meetings. For the Sky, that multi-dimensional defensive strategy probably relies on two players in addition to Harrison doing some of the lifting. The first is Cardoso whose ability to protect the rim should allow Harrison to be more aggressive when pursuing the MVP candidate on the perimeter. Even if Harrison can’t jump between levels as smoothly as Reese, the knowledge that Cardoso is behind her should allow her to fully commit when she follows Collier to the perimeter. If Collier puts the ball on the floor and attacks, Cardoso provides valuable support at the rim—forcing Collier to at least shoot from the mid-range where she’s highly-effective (50%) but not nearly as dangerous as at the rim (72%).
Meanwhile, Onyenwere could be a more suitable one-on-one match-up for Collier thanks to her blend of size and strength. The Sky haven’t run with Onyenwere at the four much this season given Reese’s heavy workload, but there’s an obvious window for her to add value in this match-up. With her on Collier, Cardoso can focus more intently on her match-up inside, and the on-ball defending against the Lynx star can be more dynamic at the perimeter, in the mid-range and on the interior. The question, then, would be how Weatherspoon adjusts her rotations as Harrison doesn’t make sense as a match-up for the Lynx’ wing players either, and a small ball line-up would likely be needed to make this work for Chicago. Diamond DeShields’ improved play as of late would have made her an ideal candidate, but it’s likely Rachel Banham that would have to play the three with DeShields out due to injury. Given how often the Sky played similarly-sized Marina Mabrey at the three earlier in the season, Weatherspoon obviously isn’t averse to small line-ups, but there’s other areas (rebounding, most notably) where a combination of Banham and Onyenwere at the 3 and the 4 is very, very different than Reese and Mabrey. Thus, expect the coverage of Collier to be very much all hands on deck—with Cardoso (an always improving defender in space) and Brianna Turner (a multiple time all-defense selection) potentially getting the match-up in spurts as well.
Sky vs. Mercury
Sunday, September 15th at 5:00 PM CT
Chicago Scoring Defense
The Mercury’s ball movement had the Sky’s collective head spinning at times in their previous two meetings with the offensive firepower of the first 20 minutes in both meetings essentially ending Chicago’s chances of winning before Teresa Weatherspoon could give her halftime team talk. Since then, the Sky have only lost one of their most important defensive players but what they had seemed to gain, however, was a resurgence in defensive energy during the first two games of the last home stand that saw their first-half defensive rating fall to 92.8 from an astronomical 110.7 in the 9 games prior. (The number crept back up to 107.5 on Wednesday night against Washington.) The question, now, is whether that return to the defensive identity that Weatherspoon worked so hard to cultivate in the early season is really a product of the team’s focus and desperation to win or if favorable match-ups with Los Angeles and Dallas made last weekend’s brief improvement possible.
In all honesty, it’s probably a little of both. Match-ups with the Lynx (a highly efficient team) and the Mercury (an inconsistent but explosive offense) should serve as a much better litmus test of whether the Sky are finding their defensive identity again (even without Reese) or if the fall off from before the Olympic Break (100.5 overall defensive rating) to after (105.5) is as real as the numbers suggest. Whatever the case, the communication has to improve if Chicago wants any chance to win as the Mercury got far too many easy looks as a result of blown coverages, over-helping and disorganization in the two past meetings.
Cardoso vs. Griner — Round 3
Cardoso struggled mightily in the first meeting with Brittney Griner on 8/15, but there was obvious alterations to her approach that led to positive improvements in her performance when the teams met for the second time on 8/18. With just seventy-two hours (which included a cross country road trip and a game against Los Angeles) between those meetings, it’s safe to say the Chicago coaching staff didn’t have time to work on too much with the Brazilian before the second meeting—meaning we could see even more improvements in Cardoso’s showing against Griner this time around. One change, no doubt, has to be staying out of foul trouble as Cardoso played just over 15 minutes in the 8/8 meeting due to spending considerable time in foul trouble after picking up her 3rd with 5:40 left in the second. Indeed, Cardoso has racked up fouls much more regularly since the Olympic break (2.8 per game before vs 4.0 after), and Chicago can afford those issues less than ever before due to their limited depth in the front court.
On Sunday, the Sky’s rotation of bigs may look to help spell Cardoso to keep her out of foul trouble. Harrison—while lacking the height of Cardoso and Griner—always seems to play longer than her size, and her strong lower body allows her to stand up post-ups from bigger players when she’s established her position. Brianna Turner, on the other hand, is as well equipped to guard Griner as anyone after practicing against her for a number of years in Phoenix. There’s reason to believe she can also be key in providing guidance for Cardoso as she’s seen the best and worst of others trying to limit her former teammate. In the end, the Sky can only hope that Cardoso’s improvements help limit Griner as much as possible—with their defensive performance on 8/18 (Griner scored 18 on 50% shooting) perhaps representing the best you can aim for against one of the league’s premier centers. And if Cardoso stays on the floor, there was certainly moments in the second meeting where she did give Griner issues—with the Sky likely to profit by continuing to get their rookie big opportunities to be aggressive in the post.