Weekend Preview: Sky Back off Olympic Break With Mercury + Sparks Clashes
Chicago starts second half with a visit from old friend Kahleah Copper before a weekend West Coast doubleheader against Los Angeles and Phoenix.
After a promising first 24 games of the Teresa Weatherspoon era, the Sky return from the month-long Olympic break with a 16-game sprint between them and a berth in the WNBA playoffs. In their way this weekend is a familiar foe as 2021 WNBA Finals MVP Kahleah Copper makes her return to Wintrust Arena via the visiting locker room (her first time there since July 1, 2016). After their first 2024 meeting with the Mercury on Thursday, the Sky head west for a matinée with the Sparks on Saturday and a rematch with Copper and company on Sunday in Phoenix. With nearly 20% of the season’s remaining games set to be played in the first 72 hours back from the break, this stretch can already be seen as critical if Chicago are to hold on to the eighth seed. Let’s dive into the keys to this three-game weekend slate.
Sky vs. Mercury
Thursday, August 15th at 7:00 PM CT on Prime Video
Sunday, August 18th at 8:00 PM CT (at Phoenix)
Matchup to Watch: Kahleah Copper vs. Michaela Onyenwere
From a narrative perspective, this makes all the sense, but it’s also likely to be a critical match-up in the context of the game. After the Marina Mabrey trade last month, Onyenwere is set to slot in to the starting line-up, and she’s also one of the best equipped players in the W to guard Kahleah Copper thanks to her unique combination of size, speed and defensive tenacity. Last spring in the Turkish League, they were regularly matched up in three late-season games between Copper’s Mersin and Onyenwere’s Ormanspor and neither disappointed with their performances. Copper averaged 25.7 PPG on 61% FG while Onyewnere answered with 19.3 PPG on 64% FG. Of course, their story since then has been a bit different—with Copper putting together a solid first-team all-WNBA case in the first-half of the season (23 PPG on 45/33/81 shooting) and collecting her first Olympic gold medal in Paris. Yet, if the Sky want any hope to win either or both of this weekend’s games, they need Onyenwere to do her best to slow the one-time franchise cornerstone.
That may mean Copper getting the best of her (as she did more often than not in Turkey), but the repeated efforts and physical presence that Onyenwere offers is something that the Sky’s other players—including new arrival Rachel Banham are simply less capable of providing. At the opposite end, Onyenwere can draw confidence from the fact she had so much success against Copper in the KBSL, but it’s possible that she doesn’t draw the match-up anyways. Nate Tibbetts will have a difficult decision as far as his defensive match-ups on the perimeter, but Kah is often credited for her quickness and the length she offers could make her one of the few W defenders capable of giving Chennedy Carter trouble. If that’s the case, Onyenwere may draw a match-up against Diana Taurasi which would definitely be a welcome reprieve from facing Copper. Whether it’s Copper, Taurasi or even Natasha Cloud (who I’d expect will be matched-up primarily against Lindsay Allen), Onyenwere needs to at least try to attack the rim. With Mabrey gone and the Sky building a new-look offense on the fly, the multi-level abilities of Onyenwere figure to be one of their most dangerous threats, and the team can’t survive her being passive in the corner waiting for threes (something she’s often done in her more limited role so far). Of course, Diamond DeShields could also be a player to watch in these match-ups for many of the same reasons as Onyenwere. She’s a willing slasher, can score from the mid-range and has the physical tools needed to bother Copper defensively (plus a unique narrative of her own with the Mercury’s MVP candidate).
Numbers Game: Three-Point Volume & Efficiency
Surprise, surprise—I start the second half talking about the one statistic that was always on the tip of my tongue in evaluating the Sky’s first-half. But instead of the Sky, how about the Mercury’s shooting? When Tibbetts arrived, I had asked questions about what the team’s offensive identity might be given the personnel they recruited, but it was clear early that their intention was to get threes up at a rate we’d never seen before in the W. In May, Phoenix shot 30.6 threes-per-game—a pace great enough to blow bast the record the Liberty set a season ago (29.7) by nearly a full attempt per game. Yet, they’ve progressively taken a step back from that original high-volume approach in both June (26.7 threes per game) and July (22.0). All the while, their efficiency didn’t change drastically as a result of the volume drop off from May (33.0%) to June (32.9%) though the abbreviated run of games in July displayed some positive progress (35.9%).
Whether they continue to depart from the original identity towards a more considerate long-range team is perhaps one of the Mercury’s big questions of the second half, but they won’t want to venture too much further away because of the impact strong shooting nights have had on their results. In wins, Phoenix have taken fewer threes (25) than in losses (28), but they’ve made more because of considerably better efficiency on the shots taken (38.7% vs. 28.5%). Meanwhile, Chicago have written the exact opposite story with more attempts in their wins (16 vs. 13) but better efficiency in their losses (33% vs. 29%). What that means for the Sky is difficult to say—especially given 46% of all three-point shots in the first half were taken by Mabrey, but the message for stopping the Mercury is clear. Limiting their three-point efficiency can be one way of cutting off the head of the snake. Of course, forcing the Mercury into tough looks won’t necessarily stop talented players like Copper and Taurasi from making them, but anything the Sky can do to keep the scoring as low as possible should enhance their chances of beating this Phoenix team who average a scorching 92 PPG in wins.
Sky at Sparks
Saturday, August 17th at 4:00 PM CT
Matchup to Watch: Los Angeles Defense vs. Chennedy Carter
Let me give you two quick questions that have the potential to define basically every game of the second half of Chicago’s season:
“How aggressively is *insert opposing coach here* willing to defend Carter?”
“How coordinated is *insert opponent here* in doubling/hedging/etc. her?
If the answer to those questions is that the opponent is willing to be aggressive and capable of executing aggressive game plans without opening up big holes in their defense, things could get pretty challenging for the Sky offense. Without going back through 24 games of film, it didn’t seem that opponents doubled Carter that much, but the way she blew past pretty much everyone on the Aces’ perimeter just before the break should leave a lasting impression with any coach who flips on that film. With Mabrey gone and the Sky’s offense less dynamic as a result, I can think of very few reasons why not to double Carter. If she has any trouble passing out of those situations, there’s a huge potential reward, and you can always back off if she starts to shred your defense.
The bigger question is how well coordinated a team can be sending doubles her way. Because while it’s easy to kick back at home and say “just double her,” you open yourself up to a lot of risk in the process of trying to set up the double. With Carter’s speed, a pass to the player left open probably isn’t even needed. As soon as she sees the double coming, she can put the ball on the deck and attack to the opposite side or even go between the two players forming the trap. As she has shown time and time again, it’s all but over once she’s got that first step, and the result is a 5-on-3 game behind the double for Chicago—with the two defenders left chasing to find a match-up before the Sky can score. In other words, it’s not reasonable to expect double teams flying at Carter left and right because of the complexity required to coordinate such a unique strategy for a one-off regular season game. That said, there will also be moments in the second half where that is the status quo. Veteran teams who know the Sky’s personnel well and have an even better grasp on their own defensive strengths and limitations will likely be willing to take some risks and force the Sky’s other players to make shots to beat them.
As it relates specifically to LA, I actually think the Sparks are a great match-up for Carter if they decide to play straight up. There are plenty of solid perimeter defenders on this Sparks team, but there’s no one who stands out as an elite-stopper and that’s what you need to have any chance against Carter if she can maintain her pre-Olympic break momentum. With Cameron Brink out, the threat at the rim is also reduced (though Azura Stevens’ return helps quite a bit); so, the chances for Carter to get good looks and establish some rhythm early should be there. Once she heats up, the defense seems to matter less and less, and the 108 defensive rating the Sparks played to in the first half suggests she wouldn’t be the first to have a field day against their 10th ranked defense.
Numbers Game: Record Against Non-Playoff Teams
This isn’t specific to the on-court action in this game, but the caliber of opponent the Sky are playing. Of the 10 wins the Sky have collected so far, 6 have come in match-ups with the four teams below them in the standings (Atlanta, LA, Dallas and Washington). In total, they’ve gone 6-3 against those four opponents and continuing on (or above) that type of pace in the final 6 games against that group will be make or break for the Sky’s playoff push. And while Atlanta (who will hope to return to full health before the 9/17 meeting), Dallas (who are already trending in that direction), and even Washington (who likely remain a bottom 4 team even at full strength) may look considerably different in the second half as they get healthy, this is the team that Curt Miller expects to have for the rest of the season. For that reason, it’s imperative that the Sky win both of their final two meetings with what certainly looks to be one of the worst teams in the W. For every game that the Sky drop against a team like LA that’s below them in the standings, there will be that much more need to continue pulling upsets like they did against Vegas just before the break. While they’ve shown the quality to do so on a couple of occasions already this season, it will likely be tougher now as those teams, too, are playing for critical playoff seeding on the run-in.