Game Preview: Sky Start Critical Week in Playoff Push Against Mystics
Washington, back near full health and led by Brittney Sykes visit Chicago who look to reinforce their hold on the eighth seed.
After starting the “second half” of the season 1-4 over the first 5 games, the Sky are in the playoff fight that most expected when the team dealt Marina Mabrey to the Connecticut Sun in mid-July. Though a trip to the playoffs is far from a necessity in Teresa Weatherspoon’s first season in charge, both the coach and many of her key players have never been shy about the team’s aspirations to play in the WNBA postseason—meaning all of Chicago’s energy will be focused on winning as many of the remaining 11 games as possible. At the same time, some games are more winnable than others, and Wednesday’s home tilt with the 11th placed Mystics certainly registers as one of those. Let’s dive into how the Sky can go about picking up a win they almost need to have to make the playoffs.
Editing Note: Per Annie Costabile of the Chicago Sun-Times, the Sky cancelled practice early on Tuesday due to illness. With that (and the recent rise in COVID infections) in mind, the availability of certain players or the overall chances that the game will be played as scheduled tomorrow is unknown. This preview is written with the idea that all players will be able to play—though that seems a semi-remote possibility at the time of writing.
Matchup to Watch: Michaela Onyenwere vs. Mystics’ SF
After having arguably her best game of the season on Sunday (season high in points, minutes, and shots), Onyenwere has a chance to continue building form on Wednesday against a Mystics team with no clear defensive match-up for the multi-dimensional small forward. In their five games since the Olympic break, coach Eric Thibault has run out a three-guard line-up (with 5’10” Ariel Atkins as the team’s third tallest player) on 3 occasions and rolled with a more traditional three (6’0” Karlie Samuelson) in the other 2 games. With the smaller line-up, the Mystics lack the size needed to guard Onyenwere when she goes for a post up (though Sykes is always up for a test), and Samuelson—despite an impressive showing last time against the Sky when she held Marina Mabrey to just 5 points on 2/4 FG—is less equipped to handle the bigger, stronger and more downhill Onyenwere. Thus, the only barrier between Onyenwere and a strong outing should be opportunity. After a hot start Sunday against the Aces (10 pts, 4/6 FG in the opening 10:09), Onyenwere sat for almost 7 minutes to end the first half and was just 2/6 from the floor after returning to the game in the third quarter. Some of those misses were good looks that just didn’t fall, but it’s up to the Sky’s coaching staff to keep engineering looks like the one below for the fifth-year forward when she’s in rhythm.
So long as the Sky can do that, Onyenwere has shown, both in the W and overseas, that she’s capable of picking up steam with the right amount of volume. When the shots are coming her way and she’s taking them with confidence, her 37.8% FG for the season feels like an aberration, and you can clearly see the outline of a player who’s capable of scoring the ball with great efficiency. Chennedy Carter is locked in as the team’s offensive focal point, but there’s no reason why Onyenwere shouldn’t be the team’s joint second option alongside Kamilla Cardoso. At present, the Sky are playing through Cardoso and then Reese as the team’s second and third offensive options, and it definitely has a detrimental effect on the overall offensive spacing. With an extra dose of Onyenwere (who’s shooting a solid 38.7% from three and made 3/5 attempts Sunday), the defense has to show more respect to her ability to catch-and-shoot or put the put the ball on the floor and attack—something no other player on this Sky team has proven to do effectively. With the tweaks required to limit the multi-faceted nature of her game, the floor gradually open ups—creating easier looks for Cardoso and Reese and making it substantially more challenging for the opposition to send effective double teams in the post. These realities will be present in each of the Sky’s remaining 11 games, but they should be especially exploitable on Wednesday given the Mystics’ lack of a natural defender for Onyenwere’s dynamic physical profile. If the former Bruin can hit double figures again in this game, it lessens the weight of the burden on Carter’s shoulders, and adds extra fluidity to an offense that, despite its flaws, has started to find a couple of go-to offensive actions that don’t involve Carter scoring the ball over the last few games (Allen P&R, Cardoso post-up, Carter playmaking).
Numbers Game: Sky FT Scoring vs. Mystics’ 3PT Scoring
Free throws have been a frequent talking point for this Sky team over the last couple of games, and they return to the forefront for this match-up with a Mystics team that shoots fewer than any other team in the league (15.7 per game). Though the Mystics are not a good volume or efficiency (75.6% - 10th in the W) team at the line, they’ve quietly climbed up the three-point leaderboards in both the number they’re taking per game (26.2 – third most) and the rate at which they’re hitting them (36% - 2nd best). Meanwhile, the Sky continue to sit near the bottom of the league in both marks, and are taking 12 (!!) fewer three-point shots per game than Washington. The caveat, of course, is that the Sky obliterate the Mystics when it comes to scoring inside—averaging an additional 12 paint points per game. If you do the math, those differentials give the Mystics a slight edge—with their 5 extra threes made per game equal to a 15 point edge. And with neither team particularly efficient in the mid-range (10th and 12th in 2PT%), the best area for Chicago to make up that deficit is at the line—with their aggressive inside scoring naturally lending itself to extra trips there.
Yet, even with their extra opportunities to shoot free throws, the Sky have only a marginal edge on the Mystics when it comes to free throws made per game due to their league worst 73.6% mark at the line. As the Sky look forward to a critical stretch of games on the run-in to the playoffs, their effectiveness at the stripe against teams near the bottom of the standings like the Mystics and the Sparks could genuinely be the difference between this team making the WNBA playoffs and watching from home. It’s unrealistic to expect the Sky’s free-throw shooting to take a massive leap over the final month of the season, but they’re generating enough trips to make an impact if their hot shooting games come at the right times For instance, Friday in Connecticut the same team that had shot a league-low mark for 27 games hit an impressive 86.4% on 22 attempts thanks to a trio of players (Carter, Allen and Reese) combining to go 16/17 despite all sitting near 75% on the season. As frustrating as it seems, that type of ‘randomness’ will likely be what decides the Sky’s playoff fate. Reese, for instance, is the Sky’s highest volume (5.3 PG) free-throw shooter by some margin, but she’s had as many games shooting perfect at the line (5) as she’s had shooting sub-50%. In a match-up like this against the Mystics where the team’s strengths tell us there’s likely to be only a couple of points in the game late, one hot or cold stretch from Reese at the stripe could be enough to decide the game—with the Sky’s coaching and development staff left to hope their work in the limited practice time they do get during this chaotic stretch of games can tip the scales in their favor.