Weekend Preview: Sky Host Sparks, Start Commissioner's Cup at Fever
Chicago's Angel Reese prepares to face fellow top picks Cameron Brink, Rickea Jackson and Caitlin Clark with a debut from Kamilla Cardoso looming.
After their second consecutive loss to open the 2024 home slate, the Sky will have a great chance to return to the win column this weekend with match-ups against each of the other teams that picked in the lottery of April’s draft. The Sparks, who the Sky will face on Thursday at home, and the Fever, who Chicago visits at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Saturday, have been two of the busiest teams in the early weeks of the season but have combined for just three wins in their opening 14 games. Toss in the important caveat that two of those three victories came in match-ups between the Fever and the Sparks, and one thing is clear: the Sky have a solid chance to win both of these games. But, before I dive into my preview of both games, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that Saturday’s game could be a landmark occasion for several reasons as it serves as (1) the opening game of the 2024 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup (with a revamped format), (2) the first professional game between Angel Reese and Caitlin Clark and (3) the likely regular season debut of Kamilla Cardoso in a Sky uniform.
Sky vs. Sparks
Thursday, May 30th at 7:00 PM CT
Matchup to Watch: Elizabeth Williams vs. Cameron Brink
With Williams (9th) and Brink (1st) both ranked amongst the best shot blockers in the W, it’s no secret that protecting the paint quickly becomes an expected area of strength defensively for both teams. Thus, a key to establishing an inside scoring presence in this game is Williams and Brink moving their opposing number away from the basket as much as possible in the half-court. Brink should be able to keep Williams chasing out to the perimeter on occasion because of her relative three-point shooting prowess (41% on 17 attempts), but it will be interesting to see how aggressively Weatherspoon has Williams pursue the rookie on the perimeter. She is of course, a good enough athlete to step out and limit Brink’s effectiveness from long-range, but there’s an argument to be made that the Sky could play the rookie relatively loose and live with the results of her threes (Brink shot just 30% in college). In doing so, Williams stays closer to the paint and can aid Angel Reese and others in limiting Dearica Hamby (20 ppg).
On the opposite end, Williams is obviously not a three-point threat, but there’s still ways to get Brink moving away from the basket—particularly with pick-and-roll sets. Marina Mabrey and Williams established fantastic chemistry in the P&R in Turkey, and there’s been flashes of how that can translate to the W so far this season. Williams’ frame and technique makes her a great screener which makes it more difficult for guards to easily go over, and there’s few coaches who will live with Mabrey coming off of a screen to see a wide-open look. Assuming Curt Miller falls into that group, it’s plausible that he’d want Brink in range to, at the very least, stick a hand in Mabrey’ face. With Brink and Williams out of the paint and the ball in Mabrey’s hand, the Sky have a lot of opportunity for her to find others—especially Diamond DeShields—slashing to the basket. Brink’s hand in her face makes those passes more difficult, but Mabrey has consistently shown an ability to calmly handle the pressure and accurately place difficult passes. Of course, Brink, despite all her strengths, has been known to get into foul trouble; so, there could also be opportunities to put the ball on the floor and attack when Mabrey sees Brink in front of her.
Numbers Game: Clutch Performance
The Sky (12th) and the Sparks (10th) are comfortably in the bottom third of the league when it comes to field goal percentage in clutch situations—with their combined record of 3-6 in these games reflecting the struggles they’ve had putting the ball in the basket. This performance is, to a certain extent, expected given the young roster each coach is working with, but there’s also moments where both teams have simply lost sight of their offensive process during the game’s critical moments. And that’s where analyzing any team’s performance in clutch situations needs to be a very nuanced process.
It’s easy to look at the results, attribute the late game failures to the youth on the roster, and stop there, but it’s a disservice to the maturity of the veteran players on each roster (and, indeed, to the ability of the young players) to oversimplify the reason for a lack of clutch success. If a team commits silly turnovers or fouls in the wrong situation, I’m comfortable chalking that up, at least in part, to youth but no amount of experience can force the ball into the basket. Indeed, a big hurdle for teams—both young and old—to overcome is not abandoning what they have done well offensively in the clutch if shots don’t fall. Of course, adjustments made by the opposition and the natural tendency towards upping the defensive intensity in the final quarter may make it more difficult to generate the looks you’ve been getting, but the defense has to, at the very least, prove their changes are capable of getting a stop before you drastically alter your approach.
If Thursday’s game does wind up in a clutch scenario, expect the team that stays closest to the strategy that’s been working (or finds an adequate modification to it as the defense adjusts) to have the best chance of winning the game.
Check out my full Film Study (here!) where I dove deeper into the Sky’s late game execution.
Sky at Fever
Saturday, June 1st at 11:00 AM CT on ESPN (Commissioner’s Cup Game)
Matchup to Watch: Aliyah Boston vs. Angel Reese
Thus far, Reese’s scoring in the post—despite all her other successes—has been relatively inefficient. At the rim, she’s been okay (51.5%) and quite similar to her former college rival Boston (51.9%) in the early going, but both players will aim to improve on this number by season’s end (for comparison, Boston shot 71% at the rim last year). The substantial gap in efficiency from 3-10 feet (43.2% for Boston, 7.1% for Reese), however, underlines the difference between their offensive game at present. And, in truth, that’s no great surprise. Boston was picked first overall because of the more complete offensive game she offers, and Chicago drafted Reese with the understanding that adding range to her offensive game would be a long-term project. Thus, the key for Weatherspoon and her staff is finding ways to make the most of the tools Reese has in the present. And that’s where her physicality—even against an equally imposing forward like Boston—can still be one of her greatest tools. She’s not averse to creating or absorbing contact, and the biggest complementary attribute to that which she can continue developing is patience. On plays where she takes her time to find the angle she wants, Reese has found quite a bit of success in her young WNBA career.
Boston, like Reese, is far from a finished product, but she’s already an impressive mid-range scorer (44.4% on shots outside 10-feet last season) who can also step out and hit the occasional three (2/5 in ‘24). However, the interior is still where Boston can do the most damage. If Reese can make things difficult for Boston in the paint, the Fever will be left relying on Clark and Kelsey Mitchell to generate half court offense. Of course, both can (and will) score in bunches, but their efficiency in the early season (37.8% combined FG) means the Sky probably like their chances to win if they force that duo to make a load of shots by keeping Boston quiet. Keeping her quiet, however, is easier said than done regardless of your defensive coverages as the Sky saw a season ago when Boston shot 63% in four meetings—including a 25 and 19 point outing in the teams’ first two match-ups. Boston’s ability necessitates 1A defensive coverage—meaning help from others (namely Williams and Cardoso) should be sent if and when Reese needs it. In the early season, Reese has held her own at the defensive end—regularly altering shots despite not yet registering her first block—and the Sky will need more of that type of disruption from their Rookie of the Year candidate if they are to limit last year’s winner on Saturday.
Numbers Game: Turnover Battle
Turnovers were, understandably, a big talking point after Tuesday night’s loss to the Storm where the Sky committed 21. And while that off-color performance led to the Sky slipping slightly in the league leaderboard, they still remain one of the better teams when it comes to protecting the basketball (14 TO per game, 4th fewest). Just behind them in 5th is Indiana who, despite their well-publicized turnover-laden (25) opener against the Sun, are committing just 13.1 per game in the 7 games since. The similarly low turnover figures, aside from registering as a slight irregularity for two of the league’s youngest teams, also underline what will be an important theme for this game and the rest of Chicago’s year: turning opponents over to fuel their transition offense.
In fact, while the Sky would’ve been disappointed with the sloppy play against the Storm, the 11 steals and 18 turnovers they forced Seattle to commit were a big key to Chicago having any chance to win the game late. The 21 points Chicago scored off of those turnovers represented nearly one third of their total offensive output in the game, and that’s nothing new for this Sky team. After five games, the Sky are second in the W in turnovers forced per game (17.8), second in steals (10.6) and third in points off of turnovers (20.8). Meanwhile, the Sky—thanks to the aforementioned ball protection—allow the fifth fewest points off of turnovers to their opponents (15.2). For a team which has had every game decided by single digits, that differential of 5.6 points per game can easily be a divide between the Sky winning and losing. Tuesday, the additional 4 points off of turnovers they generated compared to Seattle served as a bridge to keep the game close for the Sky but, against a similarly young and low-scoring Fever team, any edge that Chicago can create in both generating and scoring off of turnovers could decide the outcome in their favor.