Weekend Preview: Sky Face Do or Die Homestead Against Sparks & Wings
With their playoff hopes on the line, Chicago looks to pick up wins against the bottom two teams in the WNBA standings.
The Sky have dropped 8 of 9, but there’s still plenty of opportunity to reach the WNBA playoffs with the Dream now joined by the Mystics in Chicago’s rearview mirror for the final seven games of the regular season. Enter one of the biggest home stands in recent memory where Chicago will face the bottom three teams in the WNBA standings at home over the next six days—culminating with a huge game on Wednesday night against Washington that could decide the all important tie breaker if they wind up on the same record at season’s end. But, before we look ahead to that huge game next week (subscribe so you don’t miss my preview!), let’s dive into what the Sky will look to do the same and differently from their previous meetings with Los Angeles (2-0) and Dallas (2-1).
Sky vs. Sparks
Friday, September 6th at 8:30 PM CT on ION
What to Continue: Cardoso - Allen - Onyenwere Connection
This trio have probably been the Sky’s best individual offensive players since the All-Star break (certainly 3 of the top 4 with Reese), but it’s the connections between them that have been almost unstoppable for opposing defenses. And if you’ll remember, it was the last meeting with the Sparks on August 17th where the connections between those players—without Chennedy Carter (who seems likely to return during this homestand, though in an unknown capacity) in the starting five—became much more evident. Cardoso and Allen were extremely effective in picking apart the Los Angeles defense with the pick-and-roll, and the Brazilian was able to use the heavy attention she got from LA in the post to create positive situations for Onyenwere to work from—like on this drive:
The result was one of the Sky’s best offensive performances of the season, and LA’s recent defensive performances (even in their brilliant win over New York) give no indication that the sledding will be much tougher on Friday night. That said, every team in the W can get stops if the offense grinds to a halt, and the Sky need to keep getting into these types of actions on Friday night to make Los Angeles uncomfortable. Cardoso and Onyenwere’s connection, in large part, has been ever present throughout the games since, but it’s the pick-and-roll between Allen and Cardoso that Teresa Weatherspoon needs to be very intentional about keeping in her game plan throughout all 40 minutes. In some games, we’ve seen Chicago go to it early (and even often), but it always seems to become less of a feature as the game goes along. Perhaps, that’s down to defensive adjustments, but a great pick-and-roll combo is typically pretty hard to adjust to—no matter how hard you try. Based on what we’ve seen from the Sparks’ defense this year, they’re not the team to make those adjustments, and Onyenwere as a lurking third option who can score off of kick-outs by both Allen and Cardoso adds a much-needed safety valve in cases where LA can stop the two-player game.
What to Change: Three-Point Volume
The Sky are still last in the W in three-point attempts (14.5 per game), but they haven’t even gotten to that average in two meetings with LA this season (28 in 2 games). Once you take out Marina Mabrey’s 11 attempts in the win at Wintrust in May, they’re struggling to get to their 40-minute average across the 80-minutes of this season series. Reason being? The Sky have struggled on the threes they did take (29.4% with Mabrey’s numbers excluded) and hammered the Sparks in the interior (40-32 edge in paint points with Brink healthy, 50-34 without). Yet, I still think there’s some marginal gains to be had if Chicago can get a little closer to their season average three-point volume on Friday night. With Onyenwere shooting 50% over the last 5 games and 40.9% for the season, there’s room for her to take 3-4 more attempts after getting just 1 off in the previous two meetings combined. Rachel Banham, too, should match the 5 she took in the 8/17 meeting while Dana Evans will, in all likelihood, get a couple of attempts after shooting a strong 40.9% on 2.4 threes per game since the All-Star break. Add those up and you’re already at 12 team attempts (plus the random 1-2 shots Reese, Allen or DeShields will take), and that extra volume—especially from the right players—should open the paint up just a little bit more for Cardoso and Reese to get to work inside. It’s a delicate balance, mind you, as the Sky are better off shooting 9 threes (like they did in LA a few weeks ago) than 19, but every extra bit of volume is useful against an LA defense that has been vulnerable to shootouts all season long.
Sky vs. Wings
Sunday, September 8th at 5:00 PM CT
What to Continue: Domination in the Paint
The Wings scored an insane 60 paint points in their season-opening win over the Sky back on May 15th, but Chicago had a comfortable edge in each of their wins that followed on May 18th (46-24) and June 20th (48-22). Establishing a near two-to-one edge in an area that’s perceived to be a strength for both sides is always a good recipe for winning games, and that’s definitely the case here—given the Sky’s reliance on that type of scoring (41.6 PPG in the paint—best in the W) and the Wings’ similar success in that area (40.3 - 3rd best). And this time around, the Sky need that edge inside even more than before as Dallas, thanks in large part to the return of Satou Sabally (48.9% on 5.9 threes per game), has seen their team three-point shooting rise from 31.7% before the Olympic break to 35.1% in the last eight games with the German. They’re also shooting more threes with the overall result being Dallas scoring an extra 4.8 points per game off the long ball. Against Dallas more than most any other opponent, those are points that Chicago would hate to see slip away as their usual second-chance scoring edge is more of a non-factor against a Wings team that leads the league in that metric.
What to Change: Crunch Time Perimeter Defense
Weird as it sounds for a team that’s 11-22; there’s not too much that needs to change (at least that realistically will) from the past meetings with the Wings. You can always commit fewer turnovers, but Chicago has been fine (14 per game) in three meetings. You can always get to the line more, but Chicago has had plenty of trips (22.3 per game) while limiting Dallas to far fewer chances (17.7). And, of course, this Sky team would always love to be more efficient, but it’s only practical to expect marginal improvement on their 42/24/70 shooting splits in three previous meetings with the Wings. One area that stands out as being easier to improve is the perimeter defense—especially from the fourth quarter of the last meeting in June when Dallas scored 33 points in the final frame on 7 made threes. Now, don’t get me wrong, there’s nothing you’re going to do when Arike does something like this:
And, I wouldn’t expect Dana Evans or any other Sky player to stop this one either:
But these ones, they feel much more preventable:
Mind you, there’s a lot of different things going on, but the end result of each scenario is a relatively open look. With Sabally now joining Ogunbowale as a high-end three-point threat in the Wings’ line-up, the impact of a late rotation, an over help that forces a teammate into a long closeout or a breakdown in defensive communication that leaves a Dallas player open will be magnified, and it would not be the first time in recent memory we’ve seen the Sky hurt by these specific issues at the defensive end. If you’re Weatherspoon, I think the pre-game message is pretty simple. If Ogunbowale is going to hurt you with circus shots or other assorted acts of brilliance, fine. But, she simply cannot be allowed to have as much time and space as she gets in some of the shots above. Granted, Dallas deserve a lot of credit for the creativity they use to get her open, and there’s no amount of communication or correction that can prevent all well-set screens, but it has to be as hard as possible. If Ogunbowale does find this type of rhythm again (and worse if the Sky enable it with some slip-ups), they’ll need a big lead—like the 20-point one they had after three in June’s win—to close out the game given the late game struggles they’ve had in August and September.