Series Preview: Sky Look to Build Winning Streak in Storm Doubleheader
After an impressive late win in Atlanta, the Sky travel West for the first time this season to take on Seattle in a weekend
The Sky picked up their first road win in nearly a month (6/6 at Washington) on Tuesday night in Atlanta, and they’ll make their first West Coast trip of the 2024 season this weekend for a pair of games against the Seattle Storm. The Sky met the new-look side from the Pacific Northwest at Wintrust Arena back at the end of May (Seattle won 77-68), but Noelle Quinn’s side have quickly moved from the “gaining chemistry” phase that saw them enter the first meeting at 3-3 to a “get ready for the postseason” mindset with a 10-3 stretch that’s moved them firmly into the race for home court in the opening round of the playoffs. Seattle’s core group of four stars figures to make them one of the most dangerous teams in the league when the playoffs roll around, but let’s take a look at how the Sky might slow them down in the meantime.
Matchup to Watch: Kamilla Cardoso vs. Ezi Magbegor
After a season-best 16 points on 7/9 FG against the Fever on 6/23, Cardoso was averaging a solid 9.3 PPG on 51.5% FG. In the three games since, Cardoso has managed just 5 PPG on 25% shooting—quickly putting a sizable dent in her early season numbers. So, what’s changed? Well, for starters Cardoso faced two of the league’s premier front court pairings (Vegas and Minnesota) and one of the W’s most decorated defensive players ever (Tina Charles) in that stretch. However, it’s not as if Cardoso has never faced great defensive players before either. In some respect, this is just the first of many cold patches that every professional will endure throughout their career (and especially during their rookie season). To break the slump, the biggest key for Cardoso is patience. Angel Reese, who’s seen her own efficiency tick upwards in the last 5 games (44.9%) after struggling out of the gates (37.1% in her first 13 games), offers a great example. She’s still far from a perfect offensive player (again, also only a rookie), but there’s a noticeable difference in her approach from Game 1 to now.
By taking her time to find the angle where she’s most comfortable putting the ball up, Reese—in spite of her unconventional shot mechanics—has been able to avoid easy blocks and score on her first attempt more regularly (a tough 4/16 game against Minnesota last weekend aside). Cardoso is a very different type of player, but there’s still moments where her offensive game feels a tad rushed. By virtue of being the tallest player on the floor, Cardoso likely feels an urge to put the ball up quickly—before her defender can jump to close the vertical gap. Yet, there’s plenty of scenarios where the defender, because of that height, will be forced to sell out when Cardoso catches. By waiting just a beat longer, Cardoso can go up with her shot as they’re on the way down and score over the top or get to the line because of contact. By rushing, she also makes it more likely that a shot ends up short armed—with the lack of full extension leading to a number of shots dying on the front rim instead of falling in. To her credit, Cardoso is also a great passer out of the post. If she catches the ball high, that’s usually enough to fend off the defense and find an open teammate with her vision and touch. If the defense sends a double, even better as at least one teammate must be unmarked.
As for this match-up, Magbegor might be the toughest challenge that Cardoso has faced. While A’ja Wilson is the WNBA Defensive Player of the Year, most of her attention was focused on Reese and the Brazilian missed the last meeting with Seattle. Magbegor leads the WNBA in total blocks (42) and, despite giving up nearly 30 pounds to Cardoso, is up to the task of guarding a bigger player because of her incredible intelligence and unique blend of size, strength and speed. To evade her, Cardoso needs that patience to come through in short order. If she rushes, Magbegor’s anticipation and wingspan will allow her to regularly block (or at least alter) her shots. There’s already an element of predictability to the location where Cardoso’s shots will come from (she’s shooting just 27% from further than three feet away); so, an added dash of variety in the timing of her shots will go a long way towards helping her bust out of this mini-slump with a more efficient performance in one (or both) of the doubleheader’s games.
Numbers Game: Paint Points by Perimeter Players
Besides being a tongue twister, this stat could be a huge differentiator in the games this weekend. Chennedy Carter is one of the league’s leading paint scorers at any position (8th-10.1 per game), and the Sky are the league’s number one team when it comes to paint scoring. On the opposite side, Seattle are second in paint points—which should come as no surprise given their standout front court duo and the slashing capabilities of their guards. The scoring of those guards could go a long way towards deciding the game if Seattle gets Magbegor and Nneka Ogwumike more involved from the outside. Despite averaging a combined 3.2 three-point shot attempts per game, the Storm front court duo took just 1 total three in the previous meeting in Chicago. As Atlanta demonstrated on Tuesday night, it’s very difficult for defenders (even the best ones) to keep track of guards slashing from the perimeter when bigs are able to step out and pull the rim-protection away from the restricted area with their three-point shooting ability. Because the Storm duo shoots 29% and 44% respectively, Reese and Cardoso will have to react if they step out, and the result could be a lot of opportunities for Skylar Diggins-Smith (6.8 paint PPG) and Jewell Loyd (4.9) to work off the ball and find openings in the Sky defense.
At the opposite end, Carter, despite not benefiting from the spacing that a great three-point shooting front court can provide, is still a weapon off ball. Because she’s so exceptional with the ball, her scoring opportunities usually come when the ball is in her hands, but I get the feeling that the Sky can create more value by looking for her off ball more often. With great touch allowing her to properly weight floaters even while on the move, Carter has all the skills needed to score without having to attack the defense in iso situations. Because of their talented front courts, both teams will likely get useful paint production from the interior; so, the team who gets more easy scores from their perimeter players attacking the rim both in and out of possession should wind up with a great chance to come out on top.