Weekend Preview: Sky Look to Get Back on Track Against WNBA Title Contenders
Visit to Marina Mabrey and Connecticut plus rematch with reigning champs Las Vegas give Chicago an uphill climb as the playoff chase continues.
After a difficult first week back from the Olympic break, the Sky’s road gets no easier this weekend when they travel to second-place Connecticut and host the two-time defending champion Aces in less than 48 hours time. Let’s dive into the keys to both match-ups as Chicago seeks their first win against the Sun and looks to take the lead in the season series against Las Vegas.
Sky at Sun
Friday, August 23rd at 6:30 PM CT on ION
Matchup to Watch: Kamilla Cardoso vs. Brionna Jones
While Connecticut are a strong defensive team, Jones presents the right type of match-up for Cardoso to continue with the strong form she’s displayed following the Olympic break when, for the first time, she’s shown flashes of being the Sky’s offensive focal point. Jones may have the size needed to contend with Cardoso, but the reality is the rookie has other advantages (especially when running the floor) that give her an overall athletic edge over the former Terrapin. If Cardoso can get out in transition early and often, she should get plenty of easy looks at the basket, and she’s shown before that she tends to gain momentum after establishing confidence with a couple of early scores. Of course, getting out in transition also bodes well for the Sky as a whole as Teresa Weatherspoon’s team tend to play their best basketball when their defensive play is creating simple scoring chances at the other end.
And the more pressure Cardoso puts on the Sun’s interior defense, the more issues they’re likely to have defending the rest of the Sky offense in the half court. Reason being, Angel Reese’s prowess on the boards means Alyssa Thomas won’t be willing to leave her alone in the paint; so, any double that’s thrown at Cardoso will have to come from one of the Sun’s other players. If and when those doubles do come, Cardoso just needs to keep unloading the basketball quickly, and the opportunities should be there for the Sky’s perimeter players to knock down open shots or attack the rim. Thanks to her size, Cardoso is also uniquely positioned to pick apart the Sun defense with her passing as she’s more immune to their length and activity in the passing lanes than a smaller ball handler is. Of course, Sunday’s game showed that sometimes simply creating opportunities is not enough as Chicago couldn’t hit shots, but they’ll have to live with the kick-out looks Cardoso can create Friday as trying to pick apart Connecticut via any other means in the half-court is a hugely difficult task.
Numbers Game: Free-Throw Rate
The Sun are the best team in the W when it comes to getting to the free-throw line (21.8 attempts per game), and that was evident in their win over Chicago on June 12th when they shot 24/28 at the stripe to overcome a difficult shooting night for some of their big players like DeWanna Bonner (4/16 FG) and Dijonai Carrington (2/7 FG). And though the Sky shot a solid 87% at the line in that game, the 13 fewer attempts they took put them in a huge deficit that, realistically, they were unlikely to ever overcome. Keeping opponents off the line is far from a new phenomenon for this Connecticut team—who allow the fifth fewest free throws in the W. Given the physical play the Sun predicate their defense on, you would generally expect fouls to follow, but it’s their collective ability to keep opposing ball handlers from getting downhill which, in my mind, contributes so heavily to their lack of free throws allowed. We saw in the second meeting between these two teams in June that, knowing the Sky’s limitations as a three-point shooting team, Connecticut focused heavily on forcing Chicago to work from the outside, and they’ll likely lean even further into that strategy with Marina Mabrey now on their side of the battle.
Ahead of the third meeting between these teams, the onus is with Weatherspoon and Chicago to find a way around the Sun’s length and defensive strength. Of course, hitting shots from the outside would be the most obvious way to force Stephanie White and company to adjust their plans, but the reality is the Sky can’t expect to shoot opponents out of their deeper defensive coverages with their current personnel. Instead, Chicago needs to keep attacking downhill—something they’ve done well in spurts but not consistently enough. There’s no doubt that Chennedy Carter is willing to put the ball on the floor and absorb contact to score the ball, but the team’s other downhill threats (Onyenwere, Allen and DeShields most notably) need to attack even more and avoid settling for spot-up shots in the mid-range. In an ideal world, their drives lead to easy lay-ins, but the worst-case scenario should be an increase in high-percentage looks at the line. Of course, once the Sky get there, they have work to do as well (they currently sit last in the league at 73.2%), but they’ll still take those opportunities over contested shots from the mid-range.
Sky vs. Aces
Sunday, August 25th at 11:00 AM CT on CBS
Matchup to Watch: Chennedy Carter vs. Becky Hammon’s Schemes
Carter was able to glide by Vegas’ perimeter defense with regularity on her way to 34 points in the Sky’s win out west in July, but the options available to Becky Hammon to rectify the situation are numerous. Because of the quality of Vegas’ interior defense, they can likely afford to make limited changes on the perimeter and force Carter to beat A’ja Wilson and Kiah Stokes with floaters and shots from the mid-range. Aside from finding the perfect window to shoot in the time between when she breaks the first line of defense and when she arrives to Wilson, Carter’s only other option to create scoring opportunities is to unload the ball to others. She’s shown plenty of ability to set the table for others this season, but Chicago’s lack of consistent shooters means even those on the receiving end of her passes will want to attack the rim where possible. At that point, Chicago’s bigs and slashers alike must be wary that Wilson always remains a threat to recover and block their shot—even when it seems like she’s fully committed to stopping the guard driving to the basket.
At the same time, the Aces will also likely look to make tweaks when it comes to guarding Carter with the first line of defense on the perimeter. Of course, that part is easier said than done. Vegas have some fantastic and versatile perimeter defenders, but few (if any) WNBA players can stay in front of Carter’s first step. What Hammon could do instead is send a second body Carter’s way—with hopes of either (1) closing the door to a drive and forcing the ball out of her hands or (2) offering a second line of defense in the event she breaks past the first defender. Again, this is where the Sky’s lack of shooting gives the Aces a lot of options. Sending a second player to Carter means leaving someone open temporarily, but the strength of the Aces’ team defense means it’s relatively easy to recover and close those gaps. And that’s assuming they’ve fully committed to the double team initially. If the Aces’ defensive adjustment is merely shading one of their near by defenders closer to Carter, they don’t lose their defensive shape and merely sacrifice a step between that defender and the player they’re originally guarding. If that forces the occasional hard close out that gives Chicago an open look but makes Carter think twice about driving because the court doesn’t look quite so open, that’s a trade off Vegas will happily accept time and time again.
Numbers Game: Transition Scoring
In the open court, Vegas has a number of dangerous weapons, and it's not hard to see why even the strongest of defensive teams would struggle to slow them in transition. Consequently, protecting the basketball is of the utmost importance for a Chicago team that, inevitably, gives away a number of fast break chances every game off of missed shots as a result of their near league-worst 42.3% FG. At the same time, the Aces are a conservative team when it comes to defending in transition--with Hammon willing to sacrifice chances at offensive rebounds in favor of improved numbers defending. Because the Sky are so one-dimensional on the break (they always want to attack the basket), they have to be extremely efficient with the opportunities they do create--whether those be from Vegas misses or from turnovers. In the July 16th meeting, the Aces (13) and Sky (14) committed a similar number of giveaways with the scoring off of those equally close (18-16 CHI). If those margins remain slim once again, the Sky will likely need to rely on a huge edge in second-chance points (they were +11 on 7/16) in order to make up for the deficits they expect in other areas like three-point shooting. However, if they can establish a more notable edge in points off of turnovers or fast-break scoring this time around, it could be key to another upset victory over the reigning champions.