Quick Three: Fever 100 Sky 81
Indiana hands Chicago another loss as Clark and company cruise past Reese in showcase game for Rookie of the Year race.
The Sky have struggled since the Olympic break, but tonight’s loss definitely felt like one of the team’s low points this season. With a so-so performance entirely overshadowed by the Fever’s dominant two-way showing, it’s now back to the drawing board again after the Sky dropped to 1-6 in 7 game since the Olympic break. With two more big games on the way in the next four days, let’s dive into tonight’s biggest shortcomings and try to figure out where Chicago goes next.
1. Sky’s defense unravels after red hot offensive start.
The Sky led the Fever 24-11 midway through the first quarter after a red-hot shooting start, but everything after that went the Fever’s way. The Sky’s offense, in totality, wasn’t all that bad as they made more threes than in any game this season (9) and scored 81 points (3 more than their season average). However, tonight’s game was just the latest example of how a leaky defense can quickly undermine any odds this roster has to win (especially with Chennedy Carter still missing due to illness). The Sky’s first-half defense was mediocre again (47 pts allowed), but the usual second half recovery never arrived as Indiana scored 53 more after the break and shot 49% in total for the game. And unlike in the past where the Sky—despite conceding a lot of points—looked just a fraction off their best, it was evident that things started to come undone at the defensive end in the final twenty minutes of tonight’s game. The Sky’s over-helping left them with far too many long close outs, and Indiana capitalized by shooting a stellar 44.8% from beyond the arc.
At the same time, the Fever’s pace exposed a lot of gaps in Chicago’s transition defense—including situations where Indiana created numerical advantages after a Chicago make. If anything, the Sky’s quick offensive start fed into this problem as the Fever were emboldened to push the tempo when they went behind early and never really slowed down after taking the lead. And though Chicago wants to play quick when they create transition opportunities with their defense, their roster simply is not constructed to play end-to-end for 40 minutes. The Fever with their defensive energy, long-range shooting and Caitlin Clark’s passing are able to push the tempo possession after possession and create good looks, and Indiana will welcome a shootout every single night if the other team will allow it. That’s not to say the Sky would’ve won tonight’s game if their offense started slower (that would be a ridiculous take) but more to suggest that their fast start, in a backwards way, helped the Fever get into their preferred tempo early.
2. Foul trouble makes an uphill climb mountainous.
It’s hard to find too much more to pick through from tonight’s game, but the foul trouble that mounted in the third quarter was another factor that didn’t help the Sky. Angel Reese and Michaela Onyenwere both picked up their fourth foul early in the third quarter, and their absence—especially that of Onyenwere—was felt as Indiana went on to stretch their lead to double-digits before the end of the third. To bear this point out, Onyenwere was a +2 in a game Chicago lost by 19 points. In other words, the Sky weren’t really that far off the pace with her on the floor—something that should come as no surprise given she offered her usual energy at the defensive end and registered her third straight game of 15+ points (20 p, 8/13 FG) while showcasing her full range of offensive skills. For all that’s gone wrong for Chicago since the Olympic break, finally installing Onyenwere into a more expanded role (by necessity, mind you) has been one of the consistent bright spots of the second half. I’ve said it since before the season began, and there’s been no change in my opinion based on the last 7 games—a WNBA franchise (whether it be Golden State’s expansion team or someone else) will throw a big offer sheet at Onyenwere this winter. Based on what we’ve seen, the Sky should match it, but there’s obviously lots of decisions to be made as far as how the roster will look moving forward in the months ahead.
3. What now?
Teresa Weatherspoon has said her team “doesn’t have a towel to throw in,’ but they’ll be left scoreboard watching again as Atlanta visit Vegas tonight with yet another chance to equal the Sky’s record with a victory. The issue for the Sky is that, with the way they played tonight, it’s hard to see how they will win more than 1-2 of their final 9 games. Things, perhaps, look worse than they actually are given Chennedy Carter should return to the line-up by next weekend at the latest, but it was clear the Sky had problems at the offensive end even with Carter (and Marina Mabrey before her). Thus, the path to winning games and qualifying for the WNBA playoffs was always going to be playing to a high level at the defensive end—something the Sky simply are not doing right now.
The Fever, granted, are uniquely set up to unsettle the Sky with their high-tempo approach, but some marginal bad habits have snowballed in recent games and, even in a slower game, veteran teams like Minnesota (who the Sky face Sunday at Target Center) and Las Vegas (Tuesday) will be able to pick apart Chicago’s defense with relative ease if holes aren’t patched up before the next two games. And for all the coaching help Chicago clearly needs at this point, it’s unfair to expect Weatherspoon to correct everything that’s been going wrong in the 40 or so hours she has before Sunday’s 2 PM tip-off. A lighter three game run that starts next Friday at Wintrust against Los Angeles and also includes home games against the Wings and Mystics should provide something of a reprieve, but two more losses against the Lynx and Aces could mean the Sky’s tentative spot in the playoffs is gone before then. Even if the Sky do pick up some valuable wins during that favorable home stand, they’ll then face a brutal four game run that features another trip to Minnesota, the home finale against a Mercury team they lost to twice in August, the all important game away to the chasing Dream and a final day trip to a Connecticut team that will likely still have seeding to play for. In short, the Sky need to find solutions quickly or it’s looking like they’ll have to wait until at least 2025 to play postseason basketball.