Quick Three: Fever 93 Sky 78
Improved Chicago performance still leaves the hosts well off the pace of fellow strugglers Indiana led by All-Star Kelsey Mitchell.
After a trio of true blowout losses, Chicago delivered a more spirited effort today and, at times in the second half, gave themselves a chance to win. Let’s take a look at what improved, where the Sky still came up short, and what to expect in the stretch ahead.
1. Sky Lack Firepower Despite Improved Fight
Indiana offered the Sky plenty of chances to lie down and accept defeat in this afternoon’s game, but Chicago, to their credit, kept pushing. Regardless, it’s hard to overcome the sheer number of absences this group is experiencing right now—especially on the offensive end. After Thursday’s loss to Seattle, I alluded to the fact that the Sky, of course, were understaffed, but they weren’t controlling the aspects of the game that even their short rotation should have been able to—and, as a result, the game ended in a blowout. Today was quite different, as—despite a couple of obvious areas of weakness—the eight players who were fit to play did a decent job of controlling the controllables.
The uncontrollable, then, is the sheer lack of depth this team has on the offensive end without Ariel Atkins and Angel Reese. In fairness, the Sky did a good job of spreading their attempts across the healthy players—with four of their five starters taking nine or more field goals—but a team that gives Rachel Banham and Kia Nurse 29 combined shots can’t expect to be ultra-competitive offensively. One key injury—like the Sky experienced with Vandersloot—typically forces one or two players to stretch themselves into a bigger (and sometimes uncomfortable) role, and Chicago did an okay job of surviving that adjustment with a combination of Banham (as the lead ball-handler) and Reese (as a more regular handler and playmaker).
The problem is that the Sky are now three or four players short every single night, and, consequently, those who are fit to play are sometimes left overcompensating for multiple missing teammates at once. Banham, for instance, was already stretched thin taking on much of the Vandersloot role, but now also has to account for the extra playmaking that Reese (or even Hailey Van Lith) was providing—while also taking on a greater shooting burden without Atkins on the floor. To her credit, Banham continues to make the most of that in many areas (though not without mistakes, including seven turnovers today), but others—like Nurse—have looked thoroughly overextended in their enhanced roles (31% FG in the month of July). In many ways, that’s no fault of Nurse, and the Sky can’t expect outcomes to change drastically as long as they remain so short-staffed. Where they can be somewhat satisfied today is that, in spite of their mistakes, they didn’t let the game totally get away like in the last few defeats by heavier margins.
2. Fever Exploit Favorable Match-Ups
Where the Sky can be disappointed is with their work against Kelsey Mitchell. On one hand, they were put in an unfavorable position matchup-wise, as the Fever—even without Caitlin Clark—had their premier offensive player (Mitchell) matched up against some of the Sky’s weaker defenders (Atkins is the only true standout perimeter option). Chicago, on the other hand, had Kamilla Cardoso—their most threatening healthy scorer—going against Aliyah Boston, a more than capable defender. The trade-off today was quite evident: Mitchell was entirely dominant (35 points) with fantastic efficiency (7-of-10 from three), while Cardoso was solid (12 points, 12 rebounds) but lacked the confidence needed to repeatedly go at Boston (4 stocks).
All that said, much like my comments on Thursday about controlling effort, focus, and communication, there was plenty of meat left on the bone for the Sky’s defense when it came to containing Mitchell in those areas. If she beats you off the dribble, with a smart pass, or even hits a shot with a defender in her face—so be it. But plays like these showcase a team that’s still missing plenty of cohesion and focus.
Whether it was losing her in transition, failing to effectively guard the pick-and-roll, or completely abandoning the matchup (as Nurse inexplicably does in the third clip), Chicago made Mitchell’s path to a season-high in scoring far easier than it needed to be. For a Fever team that is also lacking some firepower, making the 1A scorer’s life more difficult should have been goal number one on the scouting report—and the Sky’s woeful inability to do so played a huge role in their failure to fully get back into the game after the Fever’s barrage at the end of the first quarter.
3. Upcoming Schedule Offers Chances But Is It Too Late?
Despite their recent struggles (2-7 in July), the Sky’s upcoming schedule should offer them opportunities to compete for victories if they play at the level they did today on a more regular basis.
Of the next eight opponents, only Washington (4–3) and Indiana (5–4) have a winning record in the month of July (entering play today), and both—despite those positive records—remain beatable. Pair those three matchups with a trio of games against Connecticut (the worst team in the league) and Golden State (who lost Kayla Thornton for the season and lost to Connecticut by 31 today), and there’s a path for the Sky to pick up something like 3–4 wins during this eight-game stretch. Atlanta and Phoenix, despite negative July records, feel like taller tasks. That said, Chicago may struggle to beat anyone if they don’t start to get healthy—meaning the status of Reese and Atkins will be incredibly important to monitor over the next few games.
And even if the Sky do get healthy, their woeful start to the season still leaves them fighting an uphill battle down the stretch—with their current record of 7–18 placing them a full five games behind the Aces, with just 19 games remaining. With Washington (7th, 5.5 games ahead) and Indiana (6th, 6.5 games ahead) just above Las Vegas in the standings, head-to-head wins against either would be critical to any hope of surging back into playoff contention. However, today’s loss means the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Fever is already lost, as the Sky now sit 0–3 in what will ultimately be a five-game series between the two teams this season. As it stands, a first trip to the WNBA playoffs in the Reese and Cardoso era looks increasingly unlikely—only a very strong finish, backed by major improvements in health, could change that.