Quick Three: Lynx 83 Sky 66
Chicago slumps outside the playoff line for the first time in September after a tough loss in Minnesota and Washington's win over Atlanta.
The Sky’s playoff push hit another roadblock on Friday night when the Lynx—maybe the most impressive team in the W since the Olympic break—bounced back from a slow start to finish the game on an insane 74-48 run. Without any further delay, let’s dive into the good and bad from tonight’s game plus look at how one of Minnesota’s standouts might offer the Sky a blueprint for 2025.
1. Fast start + paint dominance fuel first-half.
Even in a losing effort, it’s sometimes good to start with the positives. For the Sky, the biggest one tonight has to be their first-half performance—especially the opening quarter that they won by 6 and led by as many as 9. After suffering from a complete lack of early energy on Wednesday night against the Mystics, the Sky quickly showed that wouldn’t be the case tonight—running out to an 18-9 lead after an 11-2 run in the middle of the first quarter. The offense was able to stay aggressive, the ball was moving, the sets were crisp, and the Lynx’s all-world defense was, at times, uncomfortable. The second quarter was dominated by Minnesota (24-13), but the Sky avoided one of their fatal flaws in recent weeks—letting things get out of hand just before the half. They entered the locker room down just 5 and put together an impressive advantage (20-12) in paint scoring with much improved efficiency (10/17 FG) compared to Wednesday’s loss.
If nothing else, Teresa Weatherspoon can be proud of how her team corrected two of their biggest flaws from an embarrassing loss just 48 hours earlier in tonight’s game—even if they couldn’t keep it going long enough to get the result. The lesson to learn from tonight’s game, where the offense eventually lost that downhill momentum, is the same one that’s been evident all season. When you shoot 4/17 from outside, teams will eventually collapse into the paint. Kamilla Cardoso can be really tall and gifted, Chennedy Carter can be really quick and shifty, Michaela Onyenwere can be really dynamic and none of it matters when there’s 3, 4 or 5 defenders in the way every time they attack. I’ve often pointed to the Sky’s need to be more intentional about attacking downhill this season (and there was moments when they settled for bad outside shots tonight as well), but there’s a point where you can’t realistically attack any longer—especially against a high-quality defensive team like Minnesota. Whatever the root cause, the Sky’s second half paint scoring dropped considerably as they scored only 10 points in the key on just 29% shooting (5/17).
2. Ice cold third quarter dooms chances to win.
For all they did well in the first half, the Sky completely lost their edge in the third quarter. Their offense ground to a halt with no points for 4:19 to start the half, no field goals for 4:48 and no points by anyone other than Carter for an astounding 7:03 after the intermission. For a team that’s typically performed well in third quarters (+6.8 net-rating since the Olympic break), a 24-9 loss in the frame would’ve been a shock to the system, and there was no practical path back into the game from that point forward. Chicago settled for some bad looks (1/5 3PT in the third), missed some easy ones (1/5 FG in the restricted area) and really struggled to contain Courtney Williams (more on her in a minute) at the opposite end. The Lynx’ shot chart (below, right) tells a pretty compelling story. There’s some inside scoring, sure, but the Lynx’s exceptional performance in the mid-range means there’s only so much your defense could hope to do. When the trio of Williams, Alanna Smith and Napheesa Collier hit in the mid-range, there’s very little game-planning you can do to stop it. Your best “strategy” is keeping pace offensively, and the Sky were never going to do that given they made only one shot outside the paint all quarter.
To their credit, the Sky bounced back with a strong start to the fourth quarter and got the deficit back to single-digits, but it’s hard to see that as too much more than unnecessary energy expenditure given the Lynx engaged the afterburners and closed the game out as soon as it got within 9 points with 7:41 remaining. I can’t fault Weatherspoon and company for trying, and their thought process is somewhat justified by the fact they did close it to 9, but it’s a nearly impossible task to close a lead of that size against this Minnesota team in particular. In the end, I’m left wondering if Weatherspoon might have pulled her key players (she hardly has enough depth to pull all the starters) if she knew that chasers Atlanta and Washington were playing an equally difficult opponent near the top of the standings—not each other. In any case, that wasn’t the reality, and the decision was made to keep pushing for the win—perhaps with the knowledge that one of the two teams behind would definitely make up ground tonight. In the end, the Mystics win actually bumps the Sky outside the playoff line (granted only via tiebreak) with another Atlanta-Washington match-up coming on Sunday.
3. Familiar face Williams makes all the difference.
Williams served a perfect reminder of just how valuable she was as the Sky’s multi-dimensional point guard a season ago with one of the most impressive single-game performances of her standout debut season with Minnesota. The veteran floor general finished with 14 points on fantastic efficiency (7/10 FG), was nearly flawless inside the arc (7/8 2PT), and registered a double-double as part of her third double-digit assist game of the season. Williams was (and has been) brilliant for Minnesota, and while it’s much too late to play “what could have been” for the Sky, I’m instead left wondering if the Sky could think about taking some of what Williams is doing so well and applying it to their situation moving forward.
Simply put, the Sky have to pay Chennedy Carter this offseason. Given the value she provides for the offense, there’s just no reasonable explanation for letting her go unless a massive trade for a different guard falls into their lap. With Lindsay Allen also under contract, the Sky would then be left with at least 4 of the 5 starters from this year’s team back in the first five again next season. That’s not necessarily a terrible thing, but we’ve seen the limitations that this team has. Unless the front office can land a big name with significant outside shooting ability who can start at the 3, I see a ceiling on what the team is likely to achieve again in 2025. In time, Cardoso and Angel Reese may develop outside shots, and the spacing may take care of itself, but it’s not fair to expect them to do that by next season. Thus, I’m left wondering how much different the team’s fortunes can be next season if the line-up stays largely the same.
Which brings me back to Williams and what the Sky might learn. Using her as a case study, I’m wondering if Weatherspoon could view Carter as the team’s true starting point guard next season. She’s an exceptional passer, she’s already a ball dominant player thanks to her 1-on-1 excellence, and plenty of the offense has initiated through Carter since Marina Mabrey was dealt to Connecticut. The overall adjustment wouldn’t be huge, and Carter as the team’s primary point guard would open a space in the line-up for another shooter at the 2 (a la Kayla McBride—acquiring a player like that, of course, is a whole other problem). Allen would still return and serve a vital purpose as you can’t have Carter (your most important offensive player) bringing the ball up every single possession, but a tweak of this nature might allow the Sky to maintain all that they’re doing well now and add another dimension. It’s just a thought for now (and Williams sets a very high bar with her flawless adaptation to the point), but it’s one the Sky will have to revisit in some capacity as they consider roster construction for 2025.