Quick Three: Mercury 93 Sky 88
Chicago fails to capitalize on split between Mystics & Dream as injury woes continue to mount.
Phoenix finished off a sweep of the Sky on Sunday night but not without a serious fight despite losing yet another player (Kamilla Cardoso) to injury after Diamond DeShields had already been forced to miss her fourth straight game with her own ankle ailment. With another game coming in just 48 hours against the Dream, let’s dive into the good and bad of tonight’s performance plus what lies ahead after the Sky slid into a three-way tie for the eighth and final spot in the WNBA playoffs.
1. After red-hot shooting start, settling kills Sky’s chances.
Teresa Weatherspoon made a bold change to her line-up by starting with only one traditional big for the first time all season and using a group of five players that had never played together as her starters, and it paid off in an explosive first half where Chicago seemingly made everything from long-range. Shots were going in which, of course, always makes the game plan look better, but there was a lot of other nuance about the offense which deserved praise in the opening twenty minutes. For one, the shot selection was good—with Chicago continuing to hunt high-quality looks even as they started to heat up. Too often this season, the Sky have made a few shots in quick succession and, shortly after, started to settle for low quality looks from outside—letting the momentum decide their shot profile for them. In the first half, it was much the opposite as the Sky ran through their sets, moved the basketball well, and took shots that Weatherspoon could only be pleased with. Meanwhile, the players taking the shots were also right with the first half three-point distribution reflecting the quality of the shooters (Banham 6, Onyenwere 3, Evans 2, Carter 2, Allen 1).
After half-time, the Sky started to come back to earth both from an efficiency perspective (71% 1H 3PT vs. 36% 2H) and with their shot selection. In the final minutes of the game, the drop-off in quality of looks became highly evident as the off-ball movement in the offense dropped off, the quality of shots available reduced as a result, and the Sky settled for those shots instead of trying to attack the basket. Take this possession for instance:
The initial set is okay and Onyenwere attacks the closeout effectively, but very little movement happens after the offensive board—with a poor outside shooter (14% in ‘24) ultimately settling for a three. It’s a poor decision by Harrison, sure, but it’s fair to ask what happens if she doesn’t take that shot. With just 5 on the shot clock and each of her teammates stood still at the perimeter, there’s no reasonable pass available, and the only other alternative is Harrison putting the ball on the floor and attacking all the way to the basket (something that’s not really in her wheelhouse). In truth, that’s a good reflection of the Sky’s overall poor shot selection late. The individual choices to shoot the ball weren’t great, but the context that surrounded the shooter often led them to a point where they had few options but to pull the trigger. Late game offense has been a problem for the Sky all season long, and it shouldn’t be a surprise that it remains one with so many key players out, but the successes the Sky had in the first half suggested they could’ve got to better looks in the game’s key moments if they continued to move off the ball and work to the right shots with their passing.
2. Griner stands tall in Copper’s absence.
With Kahleah Copper out of the line-up, the onus was always going to be on the Mercury’s other key players to step up, and Brittney Griner was exceptional in doing so—especially in the first half when her strong offensive play helped the Mercury keep in touch with the Sky’s scorching long-range performance. Griner contributed to getting Cardoso in foul trouble early and then promptly took advantage of her time on the bench and inability to be aggressive at the defensive end when she was back in the game. The Mercury worked the ball to Griner possession after possession during a stretch in the first half, and she was able to establish a dominant first-half edge in paint scoring that kept the Mercury within striking distance even as they gave up 57 first-half points. The clever part from Griner was that she kept the Sky guessing with her passing. After a couple of post scores immediately after Cardoso returned to the game with 2 fouls, she started to pass out from the post—manipulating the Sky’s defense and creating good looks for her team’s shooters. As we’ve seen all season, the Mercury are an explosive three-point shooting team at their best, and the quality of looks Griner was generating by passing out of double-teams (or even mild help in her direction) meant that the Mercury had an exceptional first-half from deep (7/14 3PT) even if not as strong as Chicago’s.
After halftime, Griner was equally important but in a very different way. Instead of using her as a weapon in the post, Nate Tibbetts took advantage of her gravity by repeatedly going to the pick-and-roll with Griner as a screener for Natasha Cloud and Diana Taurasi. With the Sky playing small, the only player capable of protecting the rim was Harrison, and Griner coming out to the perimeter to set an on-ball screen ensured Harrison wasn't able to do that. Either Tibbetts or his guards (maybe both) clearly saw this deficiency and had no reason to go away from what was working until the Sky countered. The surprising part, then, was that Weatherspoon didn’t respond to the dominance of the Mercury back-court duo with a change in strategy—with Brianna Turner (the lone remaining option to restore a traditional front court pair after Cardoso’s injury) getting a DNP. The result was a barrage of easy looks in the paint for the Mercury that pulled them past the Sky on the scoreboard even while Chicago continued at a decent 50% clip from three in the third quarter. The Mercury eventually put the Sky away because of better performance and decision-making in the fourth, but the game may not have been close after thirty minutes had Griner not been so damaging to the Sky’s defense in so many unique ways.
3. Playoff possibilities remain after Atlanta’s OT win.
The Sky continue to scoreboard watch after another loss, but the weekend split between the Dream and Mystics means a myriad of playoff possibilities are still on the table. Here’s the remaining schedule for each of the three teams with all now tied at 13-25 after 38 of 40 regular season games:
If we’re being practical, the only obvious win left on the calendar for any of these teams is the one either Chicago or Atlanta will inevitably pick up when they meet on Tuesday night. Wins over any of the Liberty, Sun and Fever are possible (especially with all three close to locking up a specific seeding in the playoffs), but you wouldn’t exactly bet on a 13-25 team to come out on top in any of those match-ups. And if that’s the case, the Sky - Dream match-up on Tuesday would essentially be a play-in game for the eighth and final spot in the play-offs. For Chicago, a win would also give them the tiebreak over Atlanta—meaning the Dream would be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss Tuesday night. To the contrary, the Mystics are in a slightly better position by virtue of their tiebreak over the Sky. Even if the Sky win on Tuesday night in Atlanta and the Mystics lose to the Liberty, the Sky will still have to scoreboard watch on the final night of the season unless they’re able to beat Connecticut as the Mystics could beat Indiana and still sneak in as the eighth seed.
And if the Sky lose to the Dream, it could be time to get the calculators out as the next tiebreak after head-to-head record is record against teams with a record of .500 or better. We can figure those records now, but the 18-20 Mercury remain a bit of a mystery in terms of those calculations—with Chicago wanting them to be excluded as both Atlanta and Washington have wins over Phoenix on their resume. Of course, for any of this to matter, the Sky have to win one of their final two games. There’s no scenario where a pair of losses gets the Sky back into the WNBA playoffs (for obvious reasons).