Quick Three: Mystics 89 Sky 58
Shorthanded Chicago steamrolled by Washington early and never recover in key tiebreak-deciding game.
After a couple of reinvigorating performances in wins over the Sparks and Wings at Wintrust last weekend, Chicago simply didn’t have the same early energy on Tuesday, and the Mystics came ready with plenty of energy of their own ready to capitalize on any slight weaknesses. The result was a disastrous first-quarter that left Chicago chasing uphill all game—just like in the last meeting between these teams—with the deficit only increasing as the second half went on. Let’s dive into where the Sky came up short, and what’s next as the end of the season draws near.
1. Sky offense comes up short at the wrong time.
Chicago’s defense had plenty of problems tonight with some recurring issues from the last meeting with Washington on 8/28, but it’s hard not to feel that a crisper offensive performance might’ve still given them a chance to record the victory—especially after the Sky recorded back-to-back 90-point outings last weekend. Tonight, as the Mystics raced out to a 29-13 lead in the first quarter, the Sky struggled to hit shots from everywhere. When the door was opened by a 14-point second-quarter effort from the visitors, the Sky still couldn’t capitalize—missing a number of easy shots from close range. Even the alternative sources of offense that sometimes get a team going fell short tonight—with Chicago making just 1 of 8 threes, scoring just 2 points on the break, taking 7 fewer free-throws than they average for the season and also falling short of their average total in second-chance scoring (Chicago shot just 3/10 on second chance looks).
And while it’s easy to pick apart all that Chicago did wrong at the offensive end, there was also so much that they did right to generate quality opportunities—with their inability to cash in from inside the paint something that’s bound to happen at times during the season. The unlucky part for Chicago is that their sloppy scoring night inside happened to coincide with one of their biggest games of the season. They can lament their lack of touch, shorthanded front court rotation or even Kamilla Cardoso’s foul trouble (a growing trend in the season’s second half), but there’s some looks that post players like Brianna Turner or Isabelle Harrison would likely make in their sleep that just didn’t go in tonight. In a similar vein, Michaela Onyenwere, one of the Sky’s key offensive players since the break, had a rare off-night—shooting below 50% from the floor for just the second time in the last 9 games. In total, it’s easy to rush to over analyze, over diagnose and over solution nights like this, but the game of basketball is sometimes a very simple one. Chicago didn’t hit shots (35.7% FG) and Washington did (50% FG).
2. Washington’s spacing undoes Sky defense.
While I mentioned the offense could have kept things close, that’s not to suggest that there weren’t defensive shortcoming for the Sky tonight. After front court shooters Emily Engstler and Stefanie Dolson gave the Sky issues in the last meeting between these teams two weeks ago, each hit a three again tonight with the Mystics able to space the floor to the tune of 9 made three-pointers at a 39% clip. Washington is a good three-point shooting team (36.7%, 2nd best in the W); so, the Sky aren’t the first team to see these shots go in, but there were plays that felt almost identical to the 8/28 loss—suggesting Teresa Weatherspoon and her staff either haven’t found perfect recipes for dealing with bigs outside the arc or that their messaging isn’t making it through to those on court.
Whatever the case, it was clear—on at least one occasion—that a Mystics player sneaking free for a three had a clear impact on the Sky’s overall body language. Having worked to claw the lead back from as many as 19 to just 11 with 1:59 left in the first half, it felt like Chicago had made enough inroads to go to half with the lead near 10 and claw back the rest of the deficit in the second half. Instead, shortly after an Ariel Atkins jumper pushed the gap out to 13, the Sky committed a turnover and lost Dolson at the other end—with the former Chicago big hitting an open three that was eerily reminiscent to one she made in the last meeting. Of course, it’s hard to say the game was “over” at that point, but a couple of players’ shoulders sagged after seeing the ball go in and it felt like a moment that changed the course of the game. With the lead extending back to 16 and eventually sitting at 14 during the break, the Sky always looked unlikely to close the game with one big run, and it’s harder to channel the energy needed to fuel two big runs while simultaneously locking up defensively. Ultimately, even one run proved too much to ask of the Sky in the second half as the lead never closed below 12—with the final twenty minutes largely a Washington runaway.
3. Brutal schedule stands between Sky & playoff berth.
With their win tonight, the Mystics hold a valuable tiebreak over the Sky, and the nature of Washington’s run-in means they essentially control their own destiny with a chance to put the Dream to the sword this weekend—applying heaps of pressure to Chicago in the process.
For Chicago, the remaining schedule looks brutal—with a trip to face the equally desperate Dream representing the lone match-up against a team that hasn’t yet clinched a spot in the postseason. Perhaps, if the standings weren’t so tight, the Sky could even hope for Connecticut or Minnesota to rest key players, but the single game gap between the two teams for the second seed means even that respite is unlikely. At this point, the Sky’s most probable path to the playoffs probably involves Washington and Atlanta splitting their weekend series, and the Sky winning the all-important showdown with the Dream next Tuesday. Win that game, and the Sky might be able to afford a 1-3 run to end the season which, given their key absences and difficult second-half, might be all that can be reasonably expected at this point. Of course, the tightness of the standings means that if the Sky can pull even a single upset it could be enough to propel them past the other two contenders for the eighth seed—with the slender one game lead they carry into the final four representing a big advantage amongst a group of three teams that are winning just over a third of their games in 2024.