Quick Three: Storm 84 Sky 71
Seattle gets revenge for Friday night's defeat as Chicago's offense stalls out in the final three quarters after an energetic start.
It should come as no great surprise that Seattle, a veteran team, responded to a tough performance on their home floor on Friday night with a win today, but the nature of the game will likely leave Teresa Weatherspoon and her team feeling like, perhaps, they could’ve gotten more from it. At the start of the game, the Sky looked to be the more energetic of the two sides—with Kamilla Cardoso turning away a number of Storm shots and dominating on the offensive glass, but the hosts eventually responded and out-hustled Chicago for the majority of the final three quarters. And though an up-and-down game gave the Sky chances, the Storm always looked likely to get the win after a dominant third quarter. All in all, a 2-1 road trip is a positive for the Sky, but let’s dive into some of the pitfalls of tonight’s loss and how Chicago can correct them before returning to the floor for the first game of a back-to-back on Wednesday against the Dream.
1. Storm’s adjustments slow Carter.
Simply put, Noelle Quinn’s adjustments got the better of Chennedy Carter tonight. Again, the Storm are the more experienced team with the more experienced coach; so, this shouldn’t come as a great surprise. However, the degree to which Seattle was able to force Carter into more difficult shots after her 33-point outburst on Friday night was the single biggest difference between the two games. As compared to the Sky’s win 48 hours earlier where Carter seemingly always had access to the center of the floor, the Storm forced Chicago’s primary offensive option into a lot more “awkward” mid-range shots in the wide areas of the floor tonight.
That said, if Carter got some more favorable rolls or simply found her zone offensively, there are still plenty of shots on that chart she’d back herself to make. In other words, it’s not as if what the Storm did means that other teams can now work to frame Carter out of the game in the same way. However, this game should force the Sky to think more critically about their offensive strategy—knowing that they can’t count on Carter to be dominant every single night. If she does struggle to make shots, the Sky need to be able to rely on other players to shoulder the burden—with Carter sliding into a playmaking role. If she has the freedom to do that and defenses respect the other scorers, Carter will eventually be freed up to attack off the dribble once again and find those central scoring areas where she was so dominant on Friday (and has been throughout most of the season). As for the Sky’s overall offensive approach, I don’t think tonight’s game requires any deeper analysis. Carter will continue to be their number one option and primary closer—a night where the opposing defense tightens up and shots don’t fall shouldn’t change that. What it does require them to rethink is what they do when Carter isn’t at her best.
2. Three-guard line-up has muted impact.
One key to continuing to score when Carter isn’t red hot? The other players in the Sky’s favored three-guard lineup performing at their best. Because while those line-ups have helped Chicago create advantages against many opponents, the recent lack of scoring impact (and/or efficiency) from Lindsay Allen and Marina Mabrey is, to an extent, threatening their ability to change games in Chicago’s favor. Carter has been fantastic and, at times, has carried the offense all on her own, but the other two guards that make up that three-guard look have struggled to offer the same consistency. Both are still important as Mabrey provides essential spacing and Allen is the organizational hub of the Chicago offense, but Weatherspoon needs them to provide impact as scorers if her offense is going to keep the scoreboard turning over when Carter is held in check.
For Mabrey, the problem tonight, and for the last two weeks, is her efficiency. A 6/17 shooting performance tonight actually increased her field goal percentage since June 23rd to 30.5%, and I don’t need to explain why that type of accuracy is not enough for Chicago to rely on her to carry the offense. There’s a feeling, as there was at times in the 2023 season, that Mabrey is missing all of her shots by only a fraction; however, Chicago can only count on her being “close” to dialing things in for so long. Because of her shooting ability (even with the struggles she’s still at 32% from three for the season), Weatherspoon can’t afford to make any change to the rotation that involves reducing Mabrey’s role, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see her phase Mabrey out of the game-by-game rotation (like she did on Tuesday against Atlanta) when she’s struggling to get going and someone else like Dana Evans or Diamond DeShields can find a groove. For Allen, the story is simpler. She’s actually been scoring more efficiently in the last two weeks (53%) than she has over the course of the season (46%), but the volume in the last three games is below where the Sky need it to be. I’ve praised Allen’s aggressive mindset as recently as last weekend against the Lynx, but the Sky definitely needed more from her tonight. When she does attack the basket, she’s not had any problems scoring the ball with regularity; the Sky just need her to keep hunting opportunities to show the opposing defenses some different looks.
3. Flashes of five-out underline a potential future wrinkle.
While they never leaned into it for too long of a stretch, Weatherspoon’s offense molded into a five-out look on a number of occasions tonight with Isabelle Harrison and Angel Reese on the floor. Reese’s three-point makes on Friday night and a subsequent make by Harrison tonight give the duo a little but of long-range shooting legitimacy, but their ball-handling and decision-making on the perimeter is arguably even more important for the system to succeed. In the first half tonight, Reese worked with the ball in hand on the perimeter regularly, and the results were, for a rookie, solid. There’s still times where—driving against a pair of elite defenders like Nneka Ogwumike and Ezi Magbegor—she clearly got caught on a drive with nowhere to go, but the potential benefit that the system provides means that Weatherspoon can live with her rookie learning on the job in that way. With Harrison and Reese stationed on the perimeter, the lane is wide open for Carter and company to attack into and, critically, an elite rim protector like Magbegor is far away from adding to her league-leading blocks total. With Reese still far from a finished product and Harrison set to be a free-agent this winter, it’s unlikely we see the Sky lean into this five-out look too heavily this year, but I’d expect we’ll continue to see it from time-to-time because of the way it opens the floor up for the Sky’s paint-heavy offense.