Quick Three: Sky Trade Marina Mabrey for Jefferson, Banham, 2025 1st
Chicago fills out roster, adds future draft capital with latest trade in the Weatherspoon and Pagliocca Era.
The Sky picked up a big win to end the first half on Tuesday night but their front office were right back to work on Wednesday when they executed one of the bigger in-season trades in recent memory. The Sky sent Marina Mabrey, James Wade’s prized acquisition of the ‘23 offseason, to the Sun and got back a package including veterans Moriah Jefferson and Rachel Banham, Connecticut’s ‘25 first-round pick and the rights to swap Phoenix’s ‘26 first-rounder with the Sun’s pick in that draft. Let’s dive into what this move, a bold one no matter which way you grade it, does for the Sky’s 2024 playoff push and 2025 draft outlook.
1. Two shooters are better than one?
Without watching what Banham and Jefferson have done this season as closely as I’ve watched Mabrey, I can’t make too many immediate judgements about the comparative level of all three players. Mabrey, despite a lot of positives, had not fully kicked on from her promising 2023 season in the first half of 2024—with the Sky’s lack of spacing a big contributing factor to some of her struggles. In adding a duo who both have had solid success shooting the ball in the WNBA, Chicago can, perhaps, feel as if though they’ve doubled their quantity of reliable shooters. At the same time, neither Jefferson (33% on 1.0 3PG) or Banham (34.8% on 3.1 3PG) are in the midst of their most impressive shooting years either. It would appear, at least on paper, Pagliocca is betting on his team to get the best out of this personnel in a way they couldn’t always get the best out of Mabrey.
Of course, everything else these players bring is also important. On the offensive end, I think it’s pretty safe to say that Mabrey does things neither of Chicago’s new arrivals are known for doing. Slump or not, Mabrey is one of the best shot creators in the world, and Weatherspoon won’t get that type of output from these two. Perhaps, Banham and Jefferson can add something to the Sky’s defensive profile, but Mabrey was competing hard on defense this season (something that Weatherspoon repeatedly praised). There’s potential for Banham to add some fortitude—especially since she won’t be taking on the highly physical offensive load that Mabrey had to—but I don’t see this deal as a huge needle move for the Sky one way on defense. All three players have their strengths and weaknesses but none have been famous for their defensive performances either. Instead, the real task will be Weatherspoon getting the most out of Banham as a shooter given she’s a very different style of player than Mabrey. I like Banham’s potential fit as a high-volume off-ball shooter in the right context, but I’m not sure she’s likely to do that much better than Mabrey (who the Chicago set lots of off-ball screens for). If I’m honest, this deal seems to lower the Sky’s offensive ceiling to some degree in 2024, but sometimes a better fit can make all the difference.
2. How about the draft?
After this trade, the Sky will have two first-round picks in the 2025 and 2026 draft. Though Dallas own swap rights to the Sky’s 2025 first-rounder and the Lynx own the swap rights to the 2026 first-rounder, the Sky will still end up with a pick from those swaps—wherever it lands. With a couple of pieces for the future seemingly already in place, more trades should be expected. Whether that’s someone else buying in to future draft classes and offering a veteran in a swap or the Sky packaging picks to move up like they did to get Angel Reese, future trades are needed as continually adding a bunch of young players is a strategy that will only get you so far. We’ll likely see Pagliocca move tactically to package picks, move up and select the specific player(s) he wants. If that means a jump from 6 to 4 or something of that nature, the Sky could stand to gain in the same way they did by drafting Reese in April.
That said, I think Reese is the exception not the rule. She’s been great and the investment will feel justified as long as she continues to thrive, but the cost to jump from 8 up to 7 was pretty exorbitant (especially after the Sky had already given up assets to get the 8th pick). Moving up in the back half of the first round is also a lot easier than in the lottery. If the Sky end up with a pick in the 4-6 range from their potential swap with Dallas this spring, they’ll now also have a Connecticut pick (likely 9-10) to attach to it in trades. The talent in the college game has never been higher, but I’m still not imaging a ton of teams picking at 2, 3 or 4 wanting to give the Sky their pick of the litter just to add a 9th pick that, as long as the rosters are 12 spots, is anything but a lock to make the team out of camp. In 2026, Chicago’s situation is likely even worse. They’ll have two picks, but they’ll be the two worst picks of the Mercury, the Lynx and the Sun. Those teams could slide backwards, but they’re all at least trying to win given their veteran cores. Perhaps another player of Reese’s caliber is available in the middle part of the first and all of these picks help the Sky find a way to grab her, but that should be taken as a best-case scenario rather than an expectation.
From a salary cap perspective, the Sky have gained little flexibility as the total value of the incoming salaries for 2025 is actually greater than the size of Mabrey’s max contract. It’s likely easier to send out two smaller salaries than it would be to unload one big one, but the Sky would need to have a big free agent on the line before they even start to worry about scenarios like that.
3. Step forward Michaela Onyenwere.
The biggest outcome of this trade for Chicago could (should) be a bigger role for Michaela Onyenwere. I’ve been writing about it all season; so, I won’t drive home the point again, but the fourth year player is now the logical fit to step into the starting line-up. Even if Banham were to start, there’s still going to be a lot more minutes on offer and Onyewnere is the player, based on both performance and position, who makes the most sense to fill them. Behind Chennedy Carter, there’s a reasonable argument that Onyenwere is now the second-best self-creator left on the roster, and Weatherpoon will need that influence to stop the offense from grinding to a halt (something it already did at times with Mabrey). Onyenwere can score at all three levels, is comfortable creating her own looks and is a reliable enough long-range shooter to have some off-ball gravity as well. With her first go at restricted free agency approaching in the winter, the Sky—who should still see her as one of the key pieces of the Kahleah Copper trade—have every incentive to see what they have. I’ve been saying that all season and the Sky have found ways to win with her being a non-factor, but she now seems to be an almost essential part of the Sky winning games. Expect to see her starting the opening game of the second-half against Phoenix and getting every chance to prove she’s the right player to replace Mabrey in many ways.