Who Should be the Sky’s Starting Point Guard in 2024?
Considering the case for Courtney, Dana and Skylar Diggins-Smith to run the point next season.
With a new head coach who made her name as a Hall of Fame player at the position, a very important decision for new general manager Jeff Pagliocca is deciding who will run the point in Chicago next year. If the front office hiring process is any indicator, Spoon should also have a large say in this decision which, for most, can only be seen as a positive. Things are always subject to change during the chaotic period that precedes free agency, but the Sky will likely enter the moratorium period (which begins January 21st) with three key names in mind at the one: incumbent Courtney Williams, rising star Dana Evans and prized free agent Skylar Diggins-Smith. Let’s examine the case for and against each of the candidates:
The Case for Courtney Williams:
Even the most optimistic of prognosticators (James Wade, likely) couldn’t have expected the level of production Williams brought to the Sky at the point guard position in 2023. Statistically speaking, Williams finished fourth in total assists (251) behind only a trio of players who spent the season at the controls of the league’s three best offenses (AT, Sloot, Gray) and ahead of others like Jordin Canada (228) and Erica Wheeler (201) with far more experience running an offense. Courtney also provided notable value on the glass where she was the only guard to finish amongst the top twenty rebounders in the league. Beyond the box score, Williams’ performances also passed the eye test with her ability to manipulate the defense — especially in Emre’s pick-and-roll heavy offense — showcasing the veteran approach she brought to learning a new position. As a leader, Williams was also crucial to the Sky’s success — particularly as the team looked to reverse the midseason slide that nearly cost them a spot in the WNBA playoffs.
Her knowledge of the league is vast, and we can expect that a rookie head coach (even with Spoon’s own considerable experience) would benefit from having an on court extension at the point guard position with such a deep catalogue of understanding of the WNBA. From a financial standpoint, Williams likely falls somewhere in the middle of the pack of potential candidates. Her salary last year ($160k) places her comfortably below the max for a player with her experience — meaning she was a good value given the high performance she delivered last season. She’ll be just 30 when the new season begins so her prime years will continue for at least as long as the contract she signs this offseason. If the Sky can bring her back at a similar number (or even at a slight discount), it’s pretty safe to say that she’ll continue to represent a good investment. At the right price, a one (or even two) year extension for Williams would allow the Sky to extend Evans and address their front court needs with Alanna Smith or another signing.
The Case against Courtney Williams:
The argument others will make against Williams probably centers mainly around her play style. With the new era of the Sky built around a defense-first mentality in Spoon and Kah’s image, any player who the Sky commit such a large chunk of the salary cap to (especially on a multi-year deal) will need to chip in considerably at the defensive end. If you watch the film and look at many advanced metrics used to grade players defensively, there’s actually a clear case that Williams is a plus defender, but there’s a definite perception in the wider media that she’s third of the three main candidates in that department. At the offensive end, there may also be questions about how Williams will perform at the point guard position in a new system — which may be less dependent on the pick-and-roll actions Williams’ game thrived from. That said, Williams’ adaptability in 2023 and defensive performance over a number of seasons should pretty easily alleviate these two concerns.
The Case for Dana Evans:
We’ll see whether my prediction that Evans will sign a long-term extension before the season comes true. However, as things stand currently, I have to assume that — even without a long-term deal — Evans is a foundational piece for the new front office. Consequently, Evans’ ascension to the role of starting point guard seems more a matter of when not if. The case for when being opening day of the 2024 season can be easily constructed around her improvements in 2022 and 2023 and her performances overseas during that same time period. Defensively, Evans is everything Spoon could want at the point guard spot. She’s capable and willing to pick-up the opponent’s ball handlers full court, and her reading of the game and activity levels after the opponent is set in the half court are more than sufficient for a W starter. At the offensive end, Evans’ game is far from fully refined (more on that later), but she already brings plenty of game changing abilities.
Her world-class speed is capable of creating advantages in transition and in the half court, and she’s showed improvement when tailoring her usage of that speed situationally. At the rim, her ability to attack the paint and finish efficiently allows her drives to create plenty of offense — both by scoring and collapsing the defense. If elevated to a starting role, there’s also a compelling argument to be made that Dana’s playmaking skills would be more evident and her efficiency would improve. As a playmaker, an improved supporting cast would offer Evans the chance to showcase her rapidly-improving decision making in ways she can’t with the more limited scorers that make up the average WNBA second unit. As a shooter, I think that Evans — armed with better scorers around her — would rationally pass up some of the ‘forced’ looks she might take while trying to create offense all on her own overseas or in the Sky’s second unit.
The Case against Dana Evans:
Inefficiency and inexperience. My points above address the changes we could see to Evans’ efficiency as a starter, but her three-point percentage last season (29.4%) would quickly become a talking point if she starts and it fails to improve. A starting role provides more chances to generate rhythm and pass off challenging looks to other capable scorers, but there’s no guarantee those favorable circumstances produce betters results. When it comes to experience, there’s no shame in being a young player, and a head coach will often see great value in an individual — especially at this position — with less formed habits (and thus, fewer bad habits). However, there’s no substitute for the amount of additional on-court situations and challenges Williams (249 WNBA games) and Diggins-Smith (252) have navigated through as compared to Evans (101).
The Case for Skylar Diggins-Smith:
Despite their various accolades, neither Williams nor Evans has ever come particularly close to being an All-WNBA selection. Diggins-Smith, to the contrary, has been selected for that honor six times — including at the conclusion of the last five WNBA season she’s participated in. That type of quality, in spite of everything Williams and Evans bring to the table, is rarely available on the open market. Diggins-Smith’s ability to score the basketball at all three levels is unquestioned and evidenced by her career average of 16.7 PPG. Her skills in this area have not deteriorated over the years as 2022, albeit on elevated volume, was her second best season scoring the basketball at 19.7 PPG. (Interestingly, her efficiency has been somewhat volatile — especially from behind the three point line [29–39–37–29 last four seasons] — but I digress.) Like Evans — but at a more refined level, Diggins-Smith most notably creates advantages offensively with her drives to the basket, and the prospect of her opening the court up for Marina and Kah to shoot the basketball is certainly enticing.
Like Williams — SDS also brings considerably value to the table from a playmaking and rebounding perspective. In 2022, she finished ninth in total assists (despite a depleted supporting cast in BG’s absence) while also featuring amongst the top ten rebounding guards in the W. Her most recent season also ended with her as one of just seven players (and the only guard) to average both a steal and a block per game — underlining her unique defensive profile. That statistical impact is obviously considerable, but much of Skylar’s brilliance goes beyond the box score. Defensively, she’s one of the elite perimeter defenders in the WNBA and always seems to defend considerably bigger than her 5'9" frame. Her experience and presence in the line-up alongside elite defenders like Kah and Elizabeth Williams would allow Spoon to seamlessly integrate several unique defensive coverages.
The Case against Skylar Diggins-Smith:
Financially, signing Diggins-Smith would limit the Sky’s options for building the remainder of the roster. Assuming she’s looking for a max contract, the Sky would likely end up with five players on contracts at or near the league minimum. Depending on the caliber of player the Sky can add at that number, that type of limitation doesn’t have to be a death sentence for the roster and their chances of succeeding in the playoffs — especially with Evans backing SDS up on a very team-friendly deal. Yet, there would definitely need to be a degree of recruiting done by Kah and SDS when it comes to convincing the players who fill out the bench to take lower deals. If nothing else, a deal for Diggins-Smith closes the door on any chance that Alanna Smith would return to Chicago in 2023 (unless another player under contract is traded).
Skywriter’s Verdict:
Weirdly, the Sky appear to be in a situation where they can’t lose when it comes to this decision. First and foremost, Pagliocca and Spoon need to understand Diggins-Smith’s willingness to come to Chicago and Williams’ financial expectations. Those two data points impact this decision as much as anything I’ve highlighted above. From there (and assuming Williams is not looking for an exorbitant number), the Sky have three very compelling options. Adding Skylar Diggins-Smith would instantly make the Sky a near lock to qualify for the playoffs with a realistic chance to contend for the title given affordable rotational pieces are also added. To the contrary, Williams’ return would allow the Sky to pick up where they left off in their strong finish to the 2023 season while also reinvesting the leftover cap space in high-quality depth. Of course, the Sky could also skip ahead by extending Evans long-term before the May 15th deadline and installing her as the team’s day one starter. With an Evans extension having no impact on the Sky’s 2024 cap, the front office would have a clear runway to bring back Williams in an altered role or beef up the roster in another area as needed.