2024 WNBA Power Ranking Tiers (Week 1 Overreactions Edition)
The Aces are still good, the Storm still need time and the Sun are still underrated but how about everyone else?
Before the season begins, everyone understands that newly constructed teams like the Seattle Storm need time to build chemistry, but a high power ranking is still possible because “once playoff time comes, they’ll have things figured out.” Yet, by the time you sit down to rank the 1-2 Storm after just one week of the new season, it’s already time to critique them against the rest of the league based almost entirely on a very small sample size of their performance. Everything written preseason about how there’s a process and it will take time is still true, but the on court performance dictates where they end up—right or wrong. If you’re reading between the lines, I’m already justifying Seattle’s drop in my tiers—despite the fact they’re exactly what we all knew they were before the season started: a new team.
Let’s dive into the rankings to find out how far Noelle Quinn and company have fallen plus see where the rest of the W stands after one week.
JUMP TO TEAM
ATL | CHI | CON | DAL | IND | LA | LV | MIN | NY | PHO | SEA | WAS
Tier 1: The Aces Tier
Las Vegas Aces (Last Ranking: #1 overall, Tier 1)
The Las Vegas Aces are who we thought they were. They’re all one hundred bands richer than we previously thought, but—as players—there’s not much new to see here. If we’re looking for critiques, the Sparks kept things closer than almost anyone would’ve expected Saturday, but Vegas found a way to withstand an outstanding performance from Dearica Hamby and still get the win. If the Aces were 0-2 after these two games, I’d probably still give them a tier of their own at the top given their history (and the absence of Chelsea Gray), but the fact that they found a way to win both of those games shows that, as expected, there is no complacency concerns for this group. A'ja Wilson is in MVP form out of the gate, but the most exciting development for Becky Hammon thus far is probably Kate Martin’s strong play in the Los Angeles game. Look for the Iowa alum to keep logging key minutes at least as long as Gray is absent.
Tier 2: The Best of the ‘Contenders’
Two of the teams which featured here in the preseason return while one, unsurprisingly, is back in the mix with their veteran core.
New York Liberty (Last: #2, Tier 2)
The Liberty were far from the most impressive team of the opening week, but they still came through a busy first week with a perfect record. The atmosphere at Barclays for Saturday’s game was fantastic, and it’s a good reminder why the regular season has great value for the Liberty. They, like the rival Aces and a handful of other top teams, have cultivated a fantastic home environment and every extra game they can play in front of that crowd this fall—especially in a potential Finals rematch—would be a helpful edge. As for the on court product, there’s nothing of huge note to touch on yet. It feels as if the Liberty haven’t shot all that well early, but they’re not far off last season’s league-leading pace (37.4%) with a 35.6% mark from long-range. Betnijah Laney-Hamilton has picked up where she left off last season and looks in mid-season form on defense while averaging 15 points per game on solid shooting splits (52/33/86).
Minnesota Lynx (Last: #3, Tier 2)
After a couple of wins over Seattle, the Lynx are already hitting on all of the points I offered in explaining their ascension from eighth to third in my last list. Their MVP candidate—Napheesa Collier—has started the season strong and seems to have brought her three-point shot (2/5 so far) back with her from Istanbul. Courtney Williams is the glue holding things together and continues to look like a multi-decade starting point guard (6.5 APG)—not a player who only switched last season. Meanwhile, Alanna Smith and Natisha Hiedeman—two of the team’s other prized offseason acquisitions—have also had very fast starts in Minnesota colors. If there’s one thing the Lynx can’t count on moving forward, it’s Smith continuing to play at this level (19 PPG, 71% 3PT), but the Aussie looks like a perfect addition to the team’s core—even when her numbers eventually return to earth from their stratospheric pace. Crucially, the character they showed in winning Friday’s double OT thriller shows this collective has what it takes to continue grinding out results all season long.
Connecticut Sun (Last: #7, Tier 3)
Though I hedged my bets by mentioning that I felt like I was underrating the Sun in the preseason, the simple fact is that it appears I was doing just that. The Sun looked composed in both of their wins to open the season and, despite (like NY) not facing any heavy hitters, it looks like they haven’t lost a step from last season. In fact, DeWanna Bonner looks even better offensively than she has in recent years—which seems unbelievable after 14 seasons and nearly 7,000 points. The more the Sun can get her into a groove like she was in back-to-back 20-point showings to open the year, the easier the job is for Alyssa Thomas (who was also predictably brilliant). The “supporting cast”, too, looks up for another deep run. Dijonai Carrington’s fast start, in particular her defensive work against Caitlin Clark, earned her the mainstream attention her play last season deserved while Brionna Jones looks well ahead of what anyone could’ve predicted in her return from a frightening Achilles injury.
Tier 3: Good But With a Loss
These teams aren’t grouped together because they have a loss, but it’s a nice coincidence. In any case, I still see all of these as (very talented) playoff teams.
Phoenix Mercury (Last: #6, Tier 3)
It’s difficult to decide what to focus on from the Mercury’s opening week. There were good moments where the collective displayed their character and veteran mentality (like the win over Atlanta), but there was also some very challenging stretches in both the Dream game (21-4 Atlanta run in 4Q) and the opener versus the Aces (29-14 1Q). The fact that Phoenix recovered to win one of those games sees them climb in my rankings ever so slightly, but I’m not sure we’ve learned a whole lot more about what this team will end up being. If there’s one thing that rings true, it’s that this is a determined group of players. After her career night in the Atlanta game, Kahleah Copper made a point to highlight the team’s mentality and chemistry in her media appearance, and that attitude, more than anything tactical, figures to be the team’s calling card early in the year—especially before Brittney Griner returns from injury.
Atlanta Dream (Last: #5, Tier 3)
There’s little that has changed when it comes to my opinion of this team after three games. As compared to newly constructed teams that have a lot of ‘catching up’ to do, the goal for the Dream was always going to be gradually integrating their new pieces while continuing to clear space for their core to grow. Rhyne Howard’s start—which includes almost every key scoring number trending up—suggests she’s ready to take the next step that the Dream need her to, and the key supporting figures like Allisha Gray (22 p vs. PHO) and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus (18 p, 6 r and 5 stocks) continue to add exactly what Tanisha Wright is looking for alongside her star. Tina Charles, meanwhile, is back to defying time and looks to be another huge front court asset—with her 14 boards allowing the Dream to keep pace with Hamby (14 r) and the Sparks in the opener. While the start has been solid, Jordin Canada remains the most ‘game-changing’ piece compared to a season ago in my eyes—and her return from injury is still TBD.
Seattle Storm (Last: #4, Tier 2)
I mentioned it in the intro, but this type of slide is exactly why preseason power rankings don’t always make much sense. So, what can change to get the Storm trending back towards their projections? First and foremost, Jewell Loyd needs to make shots. She scored at a historic rate last season with solid efficiency; so, I’m fine chalking that up as a matter of when not if. Elsewhere, I think it would benefit the Storm to get the supporting cast involved a little more. Through three games, their big three has taken nearly 2/3 of all shots a figure which, while not far off the optimum amount, is probably a shade high. If the Storm’s roster was weak around these three, it’s a different discussion, but Jordan Horston, Ezi Magbegor, Mercedes Russell and a few others all have the occasional scoring outburst in them. With both Magbegor and Horston willing (and improving) passers, there’s also a good chance that the big three sees another touch on that trip if they find them in the right spots. Indeed, we’ve seen that, when the ball is moving, they’ve already put together some beautiful offensive sequences. Again, this all takes time. I still believe Seattle will be fine.
Tier 4: Uh Oh
Dallas Wings (Last: #8, Tier 3)
The injury bug biting Satou Sabally in the preseason wasn’t ideal, but it seemed like the Wings had enough to overcome it. Indeed, they got a difficult test from the Sky in their first game but managed to put them away comfortably in the fourth after Arike engaged the afterburners. Then, disaster struck and the Wings lost Natasha Howard for up to six weeks due to a broken foot. With that timeline, the Wings figure to be without two starters for virtually all of the pre-Olympic portion of the schedule—which will leave them with just 15 games after the Paris games to find their stride. If they make the playoffs, then I’m not sure any of this registers as a huge concern—given Sabally and Howard already have chemistry with the rest of this core. The concern, then, would be one of the young teams below them on this list sneaking up from behind to knock them out of playoff position in the time it takes their forwards to get healthy. Doomsday scenarios aside, there’s a lot to like about the way the Wings played against the Sky. The problem solving skills of Latricia Trammell and the bucket getting abilities of Ogunbowale were on full display while several rookies (Soares, Uzun, Brown) also made impressive contributions.
Tier 5: The “Rookie of the Year Contenders” Tier
These four playoff outsiders join together in one tier this time around after registering just a single win between them in the opening week.
Los Angeles Sparks (Last: #10, Tier 4)
Despite failing to win either of their opening two games, the Sparks are hanging on (by a thread) to their spot above Chicago in my rankings. Reason being? Los Angeles’ best player, Hamby, has looked comfortably the best player on any of these four teams after her opening two games. She’s taken advantage of the role afforded to her by the loss of Nneka Ogwumike in free agency to the tune of early numbers (25 & 12 on 61% shooting) which would make her a first team all-WNBA candidate at season’s end. Of course, her numbers will fall off to some extent, but her insane physical condition and confidence plus the ample trust she has from Curt Miller suggests Hamby will still be putting up career numbers by season’s end. Those around her have also shown some great flashes with Cameron Brink excelling at the defensive end (3.5 bpg), Kia Nurse getting off to a flying start in an LA uniform and Layshia Clarendon continuing to do what Layshia Clarendon does (read: a little bit of everything).
Chicago Sky (Last: #11, Tier 5)
Before getting to the positives (of which there are many), it’s worth pointing out the fact that shooting remains a concern for Chicago who are 10th in field goal percentage and 11th in three-point percentage thus far. From long-range, Marina Mabrey and Dana Evans are the two players who will have the biggest impact on the Sky’s percentage and, like Loyd, they should improve upon their numbers in time. How much they improve will likely dictate the Sky’s results a lot of nights. That said, there’s a whole bunch of positives that, despite the shooting, suggest Chicago will keep finding ways to win. Angel Reese is a serious threat on the glass already, Teresa Weatherspoon is clearly maximizing Chennedy Carter’s game, Diamond DeShields (minutes restriction and all) was fantastic in both games against the Wings and Chicago still has Isabelle Harrison and Kamilla Cardoso to add to their front court at some point in the next few weeks. On top of all that, I thought Weatherspoon coached two very good games in Dallas—no small feat for her first games in the head chair since 2014.
Washington Mystics (Last: #12, Tier 5)
Let’s start with the positives for a Mystics team that—especially on opening night—have been a pleasant surprise in spite of their 0-3 record. First, the team’s perimeter defense—led by the always pesky Brittney Sykes—remains strong. Opponents have shot just 22% from beyond the arc, the second lowest mark in the league thus far. Individually, Shakira Austin continues to steadily improve (12 p, 7 r and 3.5 stocks per game), Karlie Samuelson remains red hot from three (47.1%) despite taking an extra 2.5 attempts per game with her new team and rookies Julie Vanloo and Aaliyah Edwards are off to promising starts. Their overall offensive output has been well below average (11th in PPG, 10th in o-rating); so, I’m still not sure they’ll win too many games. However, the Mystics own their own picks and can afford to be patient this season as their young group (10/12 players are 30 or younger) figures things out.
Indiana Fever (Last: #9, Tier 4)
The Fever’s opening games have tempered expectations for even the most pragmatic of evaluators. The thinking was that, even with their flaws, Indiana’s raw talent would be enough to lift them above teams like Chicago and Los Angeles, but their current circumstances are not allowing that talent to shine through. Clark has had a mixed start while Aliyah Boston has been less efficient and influential than she was a season ago, and with those two stars below their best (for a myriad of reasons), it’s difficult for Indiana—especially against the likes of New York and Connecticut—to be successful. With plenty more tough games ahead, it’s hard to claim that things will get better anytime soon, and the result could well be Indiana’s playoff odds disappearing before they’re able to get up to speed. Thus, the most important thing for the Fever, their fans and the media at this point is to stay patient. Maybe Christie Sides is the right coach to lead Clark and Boston to a title down the road; maybe she’s not. Let’s see at least 10 or 15 games before we even start to think about those types of questions.
