2024 WNBA Power Ranking Tiers (Olympic Break Edition)
The title contenders are emerging and the race for the playoffs is tight but how does the league rank top-to-bottom? Time to find out.
The midseason Olympic break has arrived but the second half will feel like a sprint to the playoffs given so many teams are well beyond the midway point of their season. And while the standings are starting to separate the W out into 2-3 distinct groups, the battles within those groups will define the second half of the season. Between intense battles to make the playoffs and scraps for home-court seeding in the latter rounds, much is still to be decided before what figures to be one of the most hotly-contested playoffs in league history.
Let’s dive into where everyone stands as they patiently wait for the return of W action in a couple week’s time!
JUMP TO TEAM
ATL | CHI | CON | DAL | IND | LA | LV | MIN | NY | PHO | SEA | WAS
Tier 1: The Title Contenders Tier
One has stood out above the rest (and one has won two straight titles), but there’s a world where any of these 5 teams lifts the title this fall.
New York Liberty (Last Ranking: #2 overall, Tier 2)
The subtle changes Jonathan Kolb made in the offseason have improved the Liberty in all the right ways. Jonquel Jones has consistently hit her MVP-level ceiling and Sabrina Ionescu is one of the most improved players in the league
Best Case Second-Half: Simple—New York wins its first WNBA Championship.
Worst Case Second-Half: The team’s improved depth is less useful when shorter playoff rotations come into play, and the continued struggle for the perimeter players to keep slashers in front of them is exposed. NY misses the Finals.
Las Vegas Aces (Last: #1, Tier 1)
There have been some bumps in the road, but Vegas looks back near their best since getting fully healthy—though there are still blips like the loss to Chicago just before the break. A’ja Wilson is comfortably the best player in the world and in the midst of the greatest season in WNBA history.
Best Case Second-Half: The Aces are fully healthy and a dominant Wilson leads them to a historic three-peat.
Worst Case Second-Half: The inconsistencies that have caused some headaches for Wilson and Becky Hammon lead to a few regular season slip-ups. Las Vegas ends up in the 4-5 seed and are bounced in the first round by another contender.
Connecticut Sun (Last: #4, Tier 2)
The Sun started the season on a tear and are now comfortably settling into a rhythm they’ve become quite familiar with thanks to their continuity. The arrival of Marina Mabrey should improve the team’s offense in the second-half and provide a much needed breath of fresh air for both player and team.
Best Case Second-Half: Mabrey adds another dynamic to an already exceptional rotation, and the Sun finally convert a deep playoff run into their first title.
Worst Case Second-Half: Mabrey, for whatever reason, doesn’t fit, the Sun go out in the first round, and their offseason flexibility is reduced by her high ‘25 salary.
Minnesota Lynx (Last: #3, Tier 2)
Minnesota’s offseason additions have helped the team quickly flip from talented outsiders back into title contenders, and Napheesa Collier (when healthy) is next in line for MVP behind Wilson. Their offense has been efficient, their defense is amongst the W’s best, and they’ve already lifted a trophy (by beating NY no less).
Best Case Second-Half: Minnesota’s league-leading three-point shooting stays hot in the playoffs, their defense limits opponents’ stars, and the new (but also experienced) core they built around Collier in the offseason leads them to a title.
Worst Case Second-Half: Collier’s injury remains a problem throughout the second half of the season and Minnesota loses some dynamism at both ends as a result. A less well-spaced offense hurts their long-range shooting, and the Lynx are out in the first round.
Seattle Storm (Last: #7, Tier 3)
The Storm’s core came together more quickly than I expected, and their hopes for the playoffs should be higher as a result. Each of the ‘big three’ veterans are having impressive seasons, but the young players in the starting five (Magbegor and Horston) have arguably stood out even more—with Horston’s step forward as a defender potentially providing the “missing piece” for a title run.
Best Case Second-Half: A number of Seattle’s standouts hit their offensive stride as the playoffs roll around, and their championship-level defense sticks out even more as a result. Noelle Quinn wins her third title, but first from the head chair.
Worst Case Second-Half: Seattle, as they’ve done at times in the regular season, get messy at the offensive end. Their defense isn’t enough to bail them out, and they go home early in the playoffs—leaving Nneka Ogwumike’s future in doubt.
Tier 2: The Empty Tier
I flirted with idea of putting last year’s finalists in tier one and splitting out teams 3-5 into this tier, but I felt like the empty space between those 5 and everyone else was more reflective of reality.
Tier 3: The “We Might Have Something Here” Tier
These teams are in very different places, especially when it comes to the age profile of their roster, but look the best of the rest behind the true title favorites.
Phoenix Mercury (Last: #5, Tier 3)
The Mercury, as predicted preseason, feel a bit like a reproduction of Mat Ishbia’s other franchise in Phoenix. Their highs have been very high and Kah has been one of the league’s best players, but the variance from game-to-game is huge.
Best Case Second-Half: The Mercury’s explosive offensive potential comes to fruition at the right time while their defense reaches its championship ceiling. They upset a contender in the first round of the playoffs and reinforce their strong position on the market going into free agency.
Worst Case Second-Half: The Mercury stay inconsistent, slide into the back end of the postseason, and are swept out of the first round with more questions than answers about their future.
Indiana Fever (Last: #12, Tier 5)
The Fever were dead last the last time I power ranked—showing it’s been too long. Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston are, as advertised, a one-of-a-kind duo and their adaptation to one another has been so quick that a playoff berth now looks more likely than not.
Best Case Second-Half: The Fever continue to make strides in the second half with Clark/Boston (or both) putting in a memorable performance or two despite a first round exit.
Worst Case Second-Half: There’s few truly “bad” outcomes for a team with this young core as even missing the playoffs would land them a great shot at Paige Bueckers. The worst possible outcome is that regressions in their second half play mean they don’t know what to do with Christie Sides in the offseason.
Chicago Sky (Last: #10, Tier 5)
The Sky, despite sitting at the back end of the playoffs, have to go down as one of the first half’s biggest overachievers. Teresa Weatherspoon has quickly given her team a distinct culture, the team’s first-round picks match that culture, and Chennedy Carter’s resurgence has been one of the storylines league wide.
Best Case Second-Half: The Sky’s offense continues to improve as Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso get more comfortable playing together, Chennedy Carter makes a serious push for All-WNBA, and Chicago makes noise in the first round despite falling to one of the contenders on the road.
Worst Case Second-Half: The Sky’s offense misses Mabrey dearly (as should be expected), the spacing is even worse than before, and teams send 2-3 defenders at Chennedy Carter whenever the game gets close. Chicago slides out of the playoff picture and stares down another quiet free agency because of their issues with facilities (which will be rectified but not until 2026).
Tier 4: The “If We Can Just Get Healthy” Tier
Big absences have hurt these teams—though underlying issues mean a star returning may not be enough to change their 2024 fate.
Atlanta Dream (Last: #6, Tier 3)
While the absence of Jordin Canada has been a problem almost all season and Rhyne Howard dropping out has only compounded those issues, there’s other problems afoot with the Dream. It seems as though it can all still come together if this team gets healthy, but there’s a long way to for the Dream to reach the ceiling many (myself included) envisioned preseason.
Best Case Second-Half: The Dream get healthy, Canada brings the defensive improvements she was recruited to provide, and they surge into the playoffs. Win or lose, their push into the first round sets the table for the step forward expected in 2024 to come a year later in 2025.
Worst Case Second-Half: Healthy or not, the Dream’s bad habits undermine all of the talent this team has. Tanisha Wright’s rotations remain hit-and-miss, they miss the playoffs, and the franchise enters the offseason looking for a new head coach with loads of questions about which players should be part of their future plans (Amihere, for instance) left unanswered.
Dallas Wings (Last: #8, Tier 4)
The absence of Satou Sabally has taken away the crucial defensive presence that made her so important to the Wings’ successes in 2023, and they’ve struggled mightily as a result. Natasha Howard returned swiftly from an injury of her own, but she’s been unable to help them turn a corner with Arike Ogunbowale’s Super Woman like efforts not quite enough to keep this team in the playoff mix.
Best Case Second-Half: Sabally returns from the Paris games near her best, and Dallas pick up where they left off in last season’s exciting playoff tilt with the Aces. A second-half surge lands them in the playoffs and the Wings, back near their best, upset one of the contenders—setting the table for Dallas to run it back in 2025 with Sabally signing a long term extension.
Worst Case Second-Half: Anything at all causes Sabally to leave in free agency. Because of the injuries, the reality is this may just wind up a lost season, but the chances to go again in ‘25 will be there so long as most of the ‘23 core is in place.
Tier 5: The “2025 is Right Around the Corner” Tier
These two aren’t much further out of the playoff race than those just above but seem far less likely to make a serious push in the second half.
Los Angeles Sparks (Last: #9, Tier 5)
The Sparks have shown some flashes of being a dangerous team, but the season-ending injury to Cameron Brink probably rules out their chances of contending in 2024. Foundations for the future (hello Rickea Jackson) can certainly be laid in the second-half, but another lottery pick in the mix can only help matters.
Best Case Second-Half: Curt Miller continues empowering Rickea Jackson to be the world-class scorer she seems to be. Other young players like Li Yueru and Aari McDonald continue to find their footing, and Los Angeles can start to think about pushing towards the playoffs in 2025.
Worst Case Second-Half: Any further injuries impact the team’s health entering training camp for next season. Beyond that, the Sparks can afford to bottom out with little consequence given they’re one of the league’s few true rebuilders.
Washington Mystics (Last: #11, Tier 5)
Last time I ranked, the Mystics had just won their first two games of the season, and the momentum seemed to be building around them being a threat for the back-end playoff spots. Since then, they’re 4-7 (which isn’t actually too bad), but it’s tough to see them being the team to close the gap to the eighth seed unless both of Dallas and Atlanta stay injured the rest of the season.
Best Case Second-Half: The Mystics continue to lay a foundation for 2025—with Aaliyah Edwards at the heart of it all. Shakira Austin returns and gets solid run alongside the rookie while Brittney Sykes works past her own injury to get the entire core at least a little experience together before next season.
Worst Case Second-Half: Austin and Sykes’ injury woes continue and the goal for the 2025 Mystics becomes building the chemistry they had hoped to build this season. The front office, though unlikely to move on from Eric Thibault as long as his father is in charge anyways, remains without much actual data on how good of a coach the younger Thibault really is.
