Game Preview: Sky Start Road Trip in Atlanta Against Charles, Dream
Chicago looks to keep pace with Atlanta in crowded race for final two playoff positions.
The Sky will have a great chance to quickly move on from Sunday’s frustrating fourth quarter when they return to action Tuesday night in Atlanta against the Dream. With the Sky’s record down to 6-11 and the Fever sliding past them into a playoff position, the impetus is suddenly on the Sky to find wins against those teams like Indiana that are in a similar part of the standings. With Atlanta just above at 7-10, Tuesday’s game—despite being a difficult one away from home—represents one of those playoff-deciding match-ups. Let’s dive into how the Sky can capitalize on the Dream’s absence and pick up ground in the postseason race.
Matchup to Watch: Haley Jones vs. Sky Starting Guards
With Diamond DeShields starting on June 8th, the Sky didn’t have any obvious problems matching up with the 6’1” Jones, but the move to a smaller line-up where the 5’11” Marina Mabrey is, in theory, the team’s starting small forward could make things more complicated this time around. As has been the case many times this season, Mabrey’s strength means she’s not completely over matched by Jones’ bigger frame, but if the Dream’s sixth pick from a season ago is aggressive going downhill, Mabrey could still be in pretty big trouble. And as for Chennedy Carter and Lindsay Allen, they give the Sky’s perimeter defense plenty of (extremely useful) attributes but size just isn’t one of them. With Rhyne Howard out of the line-up and the Dream playing to the lowest offensive rating in the W (97.6), any source of offense is a good source of offense right now and Jones using her frame to get to the basket could provide efficient scoring looks (Jones shoots 61.9% at the rim) against the Sky’s smaller starting five.
If Jones can get downhill early and often, it could force Teresa Weatherspoon to put more size on the floor—with either of DeShields or Michaela Onyenwere able to match Jones’ size better. For Tanisha Wright, those two players being on the court is a win for her defense because neither has been able to establish great rhythm (26.2% combined FG in June) due to the inconsistent playing time they have gotten in recent weeks. Plugging one of those players into the Sky’s offense in place of Carter (the most consistent source of scoring), Mabrey (the only true three-level scorer) or Allen (the organizational hub) will always make life easier for Atlanta’s defense—with the defensive impact that DeShields and Onyenwere are able to offer against Jones likely a worthy trade-off in Wright’s eyes. In any case, Weatherspoon is unlikely to go away from her favored three-guard line-ups for too long; so, Jones should have a window to find some success against a smaller defender. The Dream could even get creative and run some guard-guard screens to get Carter (5’9”) or Allen (5’8”) switched on to Jones—with the path to the basket far more accessible as a result. If those situations unfold and the Sky send help, Jones can use her passing skills (23% assist rate is a team best) to find anyone who’s open as teammates Aerial Powers (40% but may miss the game due to a calf injury), Tina Charles (23%), Nia Coffey (22%) and, of course, Allisha Gray (40%) are all willing three-point shooters.
Numbers Game: First Half Score
This is a relatively academic one, but the Sky simply cannot afford to get off to the type of start they had in the last meeting against the Dream at Wintrust. In that game, they were destroyed on the defensive glass (Atlanta turned 5 of the 9 rebounds available into second-chance looks) and trailed by 14 after the opening 10 minutes. In a game the Sky eventually lost by 9 points, that type of deficit is obviously extremely noteworthy—especially when you consider how difficult it is for the Sky to score in flurries with limited long-range options. Of course, the June 8th meeting was also one of the final times that Dana Evans and DeShields started—with the Sky’s first quarter performances and scoring figures seeing a noteworthy uptick since the line-up change. With that in mind, the transition from starters to reserves is an equally important part of the equation moving forward (hence first half score being the key not just the first quarter).
Last Thursday against the Aces, the Sky scored 25 and had built a 4-point lead after one, but were down 4 by the time the starters returned midway through the second. The Aces, who are simply a better team, wound up extending that advantage, but the Dream are an opponent that the Sky’s new look starting five should feel like they can better contend with. Thus, it’s crucial for the Chicago bench to keep things as close as possible against the Dream’s solid bench group. Of course, the way Weatherspoon’s rotation flows also plays a role in the level of bench success. I honed in on this Thursday, but it’s obvious that a mix of starters and reserves has been a more successful recipe than a full bench group since the line-up change. As for bench takeaways from the last meeting, there’s few that translate. Allen and Carter played just 32 minutes combined and both now approach that total individually on a game-by-game basis. Similarly, Atlanta has undergone a number of line-up changes since the last meeting (Canada back from injury, Howard out, Coffey into the starting 5 for Parker-Tyus). In any case, the differential in the bench minutes will be critical—especially in the second quarter if the Sky’s starters can produce another solid opening frame.