2024 WNBA Power Ranking Tiers (Post-Draft Edition)
With a historic draft complete, it's time to look forward to how the 2024 standings might shake out and where the Sky stand.
With the draft in the rearview, the WNBA is set for what could be one of the league’s most unpredictable seasons yet. Aside from the back-to-back champion Aces who feel comfortably settled at the top of the pile, it’s hard to say with confidence where anyone is going to finish. And thus, with the season just weeks away, two big questions weigh on my mind:
#1—How will new teams mesh? Seattle and Phoenix have all the talent on paper but the Mercury’s co-tenants at the Footprint Center provide an example of just how challenging it is to put a cohesive team together.
#2—How is the offseason work of individuals reflected in the W? Players like the Dream’s Laeticia Amihere were brilliant in offseason play, but it’s difficult to say whether Atlanta will be able to provide enough minutes for her to flourish.
Read on to find out how the answers to those two questions impact my personal prognostications for the 2024 season!
JUMP TO TEAM
ATL | CHI | CON | DAL | IND | LA | LV | MIN | NY | PHO | SEA | WAS
Tier 1: The Aces Tier
Las Vegas Aces (Last Ranking: #1 overall, Tier 1)
To quote my previous tiers from February: “I feel like, after two consecutive titles, the Aces are entitled to a tier of their own.” Until (or if) the Aces are eliminated from the WNBA playoffs in the fall, I see no reason to move them off their perch at the top. At some point, a team that sticks largely with the same roster likely gets passed over by the new team on the block but Vegas’ core group is all 31 or younger—meaning even that reality is still at least a few years away. Las Vegas may struggle to get all of the players on their roster, but their 2024 draft class already sprinkled in a couple of fresh faces that could be part of the eventual ‘refresh’ that most dynasties need to add more longevity. Dyaisha Fair personifies the Aces core to a T and has the offensive skillset to add value immediately while Elizabeth Kitley, who will miss this season due to injury, could wind up as a steal long-term. For now, longevity and refreshes are probably far from the mind of the Aces’ braintrust—with this team in an ideal position to three-peat.
Tier 2: The Best of the ‘Contenders’
There’s no obvious similarities between these three teams, but—at least at the time of writing—I feel they’re the groups best equipped to challenge Vegas.
New York Liberty (Last: #2, Tier 2)
Continuity, continuity, continuity. While the lack of obvious changes to combat the Aces could eventually catch New York out in a Finals rematch, it also figures to contribute to a strong regular season. And while they kept their core intact, the Liberty have taken some swings on players who could add huge value as well. They’ve made a number of signings from overseas (of which Leonie Fiebich figures to be the most impactful) and drafted Marquesha Davis from Ole Miss who could be a big contributor off of the bench as a rookie. Their big three of Stewie, Jonquel and Betnijah Laney should perform to a high-level once again, but Sabrina Ionescu—who seemed to settle more as 2023 went on—could be the player who’s performance (especially on defense) lightens some of the regular season load and tips the scales for or against the Liberty in the postseason.
Minnesota Lynx (Last: #8, Tier 3)
While as much as half of the roster could wind up being new faces, every one of those new faces (bar rookies) has played with Courtney Williams at a previous stop. Given the popularity she has with players league wide, the position she plays, and the relationship she already seems to have developed with head coach Cheryl Reeve, the deck feels stacked for her to settle pretty quickly alongside Minnesota’s returnees. If she settles, I imagine those familiar faces (Alanna Smith, Natisha Hiedeman, Sika Koné and more) should follow closely behind. If Williams helps integrate the two groups, the Lynx roster makes a whole lot of sense from a tactical perspective. Williams and Napheesa Collier could form a lethal pick-and-roll tandem, Diamond Miller had an underrated rookie season and each of Smith, Hiedeman, Dorka Juhász and Kayla McBride adds unique value around the edges. This Minnesota squad reminds me of last year’s Connecticut team that wasn’t the league’s most flashy outfit but had all of the maturity needed to rack up wins and push teams to the brink in the playoffs.
Seattle Storm (Last: #3, Tier 2)
On paper, this might be the second best roster in the league. Sadly for Seattle, games aren’t played on paper and the acclimation process may be quite a bit more challenging. That being said, I think this team’s brand new big three will have a unique impetus to succeed given both Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith will turn 34 during the season. Don’t get me wrong—neither has shown any obvious sign of decline—but time waits for no one and I think that reality will offer a mature approach to the team-building process that will serve this group well. Of course, Ogwumike, Diggins-Smith and Loyd’s egos (or lack thereof) should also aid the process—with a young coach like Noelle Quinn also capable of giving the group valuable perspective where needed. Even if the trio can only develop so-so chemistry, Jordan Horston and Ezi Magbegor plus a well-constructed bench which now includes draftee Nika Mühl should add enough support for this team to claim a solid seed in the playoffs.
Tier 3: They’re Gonna Finish How Low?
These are the teams that logic tells me should finish much higher but are the victims of the league’s depth. In truth, the teams in Tier 2 and 3 could finish in almost any order by season’s end, and I wouldn’t be surprised.
Atlanta Dream (Last: #5, Tier 3)
I love everything about this roster and want to pick them higher, but I still think they’re just on the outside looking in when it comes to home court. I see Rhyne Howard making another leap in year three, Jordin Canada adding the point of attack defense the team has needed and Tina Charles continuing to defy time. The rest of the core (Gray, Parker and Coffey) should continue to perform at the high-level they were at last season; so, the chance to really test the teams at the top will likely depend on what the players like Amihere, Haley Jones and Aerial Powers can do. We’ve seen in various past circumstances what each of the three can offer, and they have specific skills that are complementary to the Dream’s most important players. If Tanisha Wright finds the right role for those three (and a few other reserves), there’s every chance they can play their best and add the extra dash of quality this team needs to push past at least one of the top four.
Phoenix Mercury (Last: #4, Tier 2)
I made the subtle Suns comparison above because I think there’s some truth to it. That being said, the potential for this team—especially on defense—remains sky high. On offense, I’m a little more concerned about what type of style the team will bring—especially with so many new faces and a first-time head coach. It’s not that they don’t have scorers—they do—I’m just not totally sure how they’ll all fit together. Luckily for Phoenix, Natasha Cloud’s play in Athletes Unlimited has shown that she can put together a relatively random assortment of players and find a way to get everyone touches. If she and Sug Sutton can do the same for this team, they should be able to score enough for their defense to win them a lot of games; however, I just don’t think it’s fair to dump all that expectation on Cloud and expect her to figure it out. If/when this team’s offense comes together, they’ll be in great shape, but I think it could be a rocky process to get there. With all of the fearless competitors in this group, a middling record hardly rules out a deep postseason run; so, finding solutions before then is Nate Tibbetts’ priority 1A for the regular season.
Connecticut Sun (Last: #6, Tier 3)
The Sun will likely remain under appreciated by myself and many others in the preseason, but I can’t imagine it will bother their veteran core—who are gearing up for what could be one of their final chances at a title. Looking at their roster, two players stand out as keys: Tiffany Mitchell and DiJonai Carrington. Mitchell, as the new face, shoulders some of the burden left behind by Tiffany Hayes, and a season closer to her standout 2022 numbers would go a long way towards the Sun retuning to the semi-finals. Carrington, meanwhile, took a noteworthy step forward in 2023 but seems to have plenty of runway left for improvement. If her game continues to evolve and she takes on even a part of the Hayes role, that’s a great individual step and makes the acclimation easier for Mitchell. Thus, her play could be the glue that holds together last year’s form in ‘24. Brionna Jones’ return from injury should help lessen some of the burden on Alyssa Thomas, but AT burying herself again could be just as useful for the team’s success. Of course, no one will want to see this group in the playoffs regardless of seeding.
Dallas Wings (Last: #7, Tier 3)
The injury to Satou Sabally is concerning—especially with no definite timeframe attached to it, but I’m still pretty bullish about Dallas’ chances this season (in spite of this ranking). The Jacy Sheldon picks makes a ton of sense and her vast collegiate experience should allow her defensive work rate to shine through in year one. While I’m not yet totally sold on her as a backcourt partner for Arike Ogunbowale long-term, I like that the Wings’ draft pick was consistent with the identity they’ve tried to craft since hiring Latricia Trammell. If Sabally returns in relatively short order, they should climb higher than this, but I think her absence could allow opponents to key in heavily on Ogunbowale and force her into some highly-difficult shots (granted she makes plenty of those). Down low, the return of Kalani Brown means Dallas can still cause serious problems with their array of bigs, and the team that gave the Aces the biggest scare in last year’s playoffs could do the same again in 2024 once fully healthy.
Tier 4: We Got Next
I’m not sure these young teams are ready to go directly to the playoffs, but they’re capable of laying a strong foundation for 2025 at the very least.
Indiana Fever (Last: #9, Tier 4)
In truth, the progression the Fever showed a season ago suggests they might have been pushing for a playoff berth in 2024 even without adding one of the most exciting college prospects of all-time. Aliyah Boston should enter into the MVP discussion within the next few years, NaLyssa Smith can exploit defenses that focus too much on Boston and Kelsey Mitchell should continue to benefit from all of the attention that other teams have to focus inside. Add Caitlin Clark to that equation and things get exponentially more difficult for an opposing defense. Even if she focuses exclusively on playmaking in year one, Clark likely adds enough value to push this team into the playoff mix. I still think that, in year 2 under Christie Sides, this group will be just on the outside looking in, but the core is in place for many trips to the postseason in the very near future.
Los Angeles Sparks (Last: #11, Tier 5)
The Sparks’ draft haul of Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson leaves them in a pretty good position in year 2 of the Curt Miller era. Having three other talented bigs (Dearica Hamby, Azurá Stevens and Brink) on the roster means that Jackson will likely play the 3—a role which I feel will better suit her skills at the WNBA level. In the backcourt, veterans like Lexie Brown and Layshia Clarendon mean the Sparks can expect dependable play, but second-year guard Zia Cooke looks like a make-or-break player to me. If Cooke can turn the brilliant flashes of her rookie season into more consistent production and both of the lottery rookies add the expected value, LA may not be as far away from a playoff return as the departures of Canada and Ogwumike in the offseason suggested. If not, the Sparks are still in a strong position in the long-term as both rookies and Cooke figure to develop into solid pieces under a top-end coach like Miller, and the Sparks can add another lottery pick to the equation next spring.
Tier 5: Not Our Time (Yet)
To these teams’ credits, they’ve accumulated some nice assets ahead of the 2024 season, but the prognosis is still that both will struggle to make the playoffs.
Chicago Sky (Last: #10, Tier 5)
The Sky took some gambles in the lead-up to the draft by trading Li Yueru, Sika Koné and a 2026 pick swap to move up to the seventh pick, but neither of those players (while talented) were likely to move the needle in 2024 anyways. Angel Reese, who Chicago selected with that pick, could. That being said, it will be an uphill battle for both Reese and fellow rookie Kamilla Cardoso in their first year in the W—even if the long-term signs are that this duo could be pretty special. With a head coach and GM with zero experience in those roles in the W and a young roster, this season should be more about process than results. However, the Sky owing both that ‘26 pick and their ‘25 first-rounder to other teams in swaps means it will be hard not to notice the results if the Sky wind up handing over back-to-back lottery picks. The roster is stronger than it looks at first glance and Teresa Weatherspoon’s coaching figures to get more from the whole than the sum of its parts, but Chicago still needs a lot to go right to even think about a sixth-consecutive playoff berth.
Washington Mystics (Last: #12, Tier 5)
While Chicago went all in on the 2024 draft and brought in a new coach, the Mystics—somewhat like the Sky of a season ago—feel a bit stuck between two eras. Fortunately, the Mystics front office decided to practice patience with their offseason activity and still have hold of their ‘25 and ‘26 first-round picks—with an additional ‘25 first on the way from Atlanta. In other words, the Mystics can afford to patiently watch as their young front court of Shakira Austin and first-round pick Aaliyah Edwards figures things out in ‘24. Austin has shown that she’s a great player when healthy and I expect Edwards to do the same. In other words, I wouldn’t panic as a Mystics fan even though this offseason was largely a disappointment. If everything goes right and Edwards settles quickly, they have potential to climb up the standings, but a finish near the bottom gives the team a chance to cement their future—especially if Atlanta finishes near the back end of the playoff mix and leaves Washington with two top-six picks.
